Without Rietze CDA will not even sniff top 2 at NXR. Their 4&5 will score at least 80-120 points between the two of them. Cda raced 10 good teams, throw in 5-10 more and those back guys are further back than they were today. Jesuit, Sehome or some other school could get them on their depth alone. If their #4 comes back it is a done deal. I Hope all teams are healthy and ready to go by November!
Without Rietze CDA will not even sniff top 2 at NXR. Their 4&5 will score at least 80-120 points between the two of them. Cda raced 10 good teams, throw in 5-10 more and those back guys are further back than they were today. Jesuit, Sehome or some other school could get them on their depth alone. If their #4 comes back it is a done deal. I Hope all teams are healthy and ready to go by November!
this is nonsense. There number 4 and 5 were ahead of jesuit 5. Having low sticks are more important in deeper races, not the other way around. There is a reason why CDA was 5th at woodbridge. Those low sticks helped a lot.
Those Rose City times are just absurd for the Boise team and anyone at the meet. The course was super quick. Not always a big fan of Speed Ratings, but think they were important to consider here. Boise's team speed rating average was 170 at this course (167 before Rose), while Rocky sits at 174.1 for the season. I think Boise showing they can run fast is a big plus though and they have definitely improved. Boise has been interesting in recent years as a few of their guys seem to have bad seasons, but then do really well in championship season. It will be interesting to see how it all shakes out. At this point, Rocky still has a slight edge in my mind, and neither seem to be in the ball park of CDA.
CDA had 3 sub 5 minute milers as part of their Freshman class (WM, RH, BH - Hurt)
I am hearing that they will have (at least) 3 more next year. Wyatt Carr's senior year will yield the best team to date. 1-7 will have PR's sub 16.
Don't read too much into Freshman track PR's.
And for that matter, Rocky had 4 freshman sub 5 this last season, with another at 5:01.
Obviously CDA will be the team to beat for the next 2-3 years, but don't forget that Rocky (and Boise for that matter) are also working with stud freshman classes.
If we're talking strictly about the class of 2027, I'd take Rocky over CDA 9 times out of 10 these next few years. CDA has been really good the last year or two at getting young talent to run really fast, but we are still waiting to see if Emry Carr can get these studs to see 4 years of back to back improvement.
Say what you want about Rocky but it's pretty clear that despite peaking too early in the season, they consistently get better each year.
CDA had 3 sub 5 minute milers as part of their Freshman class (WM, RH, BH - Hurt)
I am hearing that they will have (at least) 3 more next year. Wyatt Carr's senior year will yield the best team to date. 1-7 will have PR's sub 16.
Don't read too much into Freshman track PR's.
And for that matter, Rocky had 4 freshman sub 5 this last season, with another at 5:01.
Obviously CDA will be the team to beat for the next 2-3 years, but don't forget that Rocky (and Boise for that matter) are also working with stud freshman classes.
If we're talking strictly about the class of 2027, I'd take Rocky over CDA 9 times out of 10 these next few years. CDA has been really good the last year or two at getting young talent to run really fast, but we are still waiting to see if Emry Carr can get these studs to see 4 years of back to back improvement.
Say what you want about Rocky but it's pretty clear that despite peaking too early in the season, they consistently get better each year.
Aren’t current freshmen class of 2028? Those were their 8th grade track times. Not that your point is any less relevant.
Class of 2027 is the current sophomore class. Rocky pretty clearly has the 4th best sophomore class in the state. The 4th-8th runners don’t matter as much as a lot of people will claim.
Class of 2027 is the current sophomore class. Rocky pretty clearly has the 4th best sophomore class in the state. The 4th-8th runners don’t matter as much as a lot of people will claim.
Rocky Mountain might disagree that they don’t matter as much, judging by the fact that they don’t travel for out-of-state regular season meets to make their resume look good for at larges, because they prefer to keep their whole team together during all meets since all JV guys are as important to them as their varsity
Class of 2027 is the current sophomore class. Rocky pretty clearly has the 4th best sophomore class in the state. The 4th-8th runners don’t matter as much as a lot of people will claim.
Rocky Mountain might disagree that they don’t matter as much, judging by the fact that they don’t travel for out-of-state regular season meets to make their resume look good for at larges, because they prefer to keep their whole team together during all meets since all JV guys are as important to them as their varsity
Rocky can disagree all they like, but their 4-8 won’t make them place any better than 2nd at state and 5th at NXR
Class of 2027 is the current sophomore class. Rocky pretty clearly has the 4th best sophomore class in the state. The 4th-8th runners don’t matter as much as a lot of people will claim.
Rocky Mountain might disagree that they don’t matter as much, judging by the fact that they don’t travel for out-of-state regular season meets to make their resume look good for at larges, because they prefer to keep their whole team together during all meets since all JV guys are as important to them as their varsity
You’re twisting the message. They don’t matter as much when it comes to winning. Going back to 2019, the only times that a boy not in their top 3 freshmen ended up being a scorer for their actual varsity team is when kids ahead of them quit. This does exclude Goggins as he didn’t run as a freshman.
Cody Lucas 9:10.9 Hyrum Tuft 9:27.9 Parker Goggins 9:28.2 Jacob Thomas 9:28.8 Jaymon Clark 9:49.2 Jack Davis 10:02.3 Thomas Kurtz 10:05.1
Sophomore Boys Harrison Loscher 10:21.1 Dylan Anson 10:27.2 Michael Majors (has a typo, I think) 10:27.3 Ray Clark 10:27.5 Skyler McCune 10:49.9 Austin Carlson 11:15.5
Freshman Boys Jonah Bennion 10:27.9 Ken Uechi 10:41.4 Cason McCulloch 10:57.6 Porter Clark 11:19.6 Tavin Shipp 11:23.0
Returners for boys ran 9:27, 10:02, 10:05, 10:21, 10:27, 10:27, 10:27, 10:27, 10:41
Returners for girls ran 10:54, 11:10, 11:18, 11:52, 11:57, 12:31
Kurtz obviously had a bad day, but I have a hard time seeing how next year's Rocky squad is going to take down CDA with those results. CDA is better at 1, 2 (with Rietze back), 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7. I think they are more likely to not trophy than they are to win, honestly.
Boise will be better at 3-7.
Mountain View might be close to equal at 1, should run close at 2, and then will be far better at 3 and close at 4 and 5.
Eagle will be better at 3-7.
I don't know that they will be so much better at 1 and 2 that it makes up for the weakness on the back end. They just drop off so hard at 4 and 5. Even if they see improvement, it's not like those other teams aren't seeing guys have big improvements as well.
Cody Lucas 9:10.9 Hyrum Tuft 9:27.9 Parker Goggins 9:28.2 Jacob Thomas 9:28.8 Jaymon Clark 9:49.2 Jack Davis 10:02.3 Thomas Kurtz 10:05.1
Sophomore Boys Harrison Loscher 10:21.1 Dylan Anson 10:27.2 Michael Majors (has a typo, I think) 10:27.3 Ray Clark 10:27.5 Skyler McCune 10:49.9 Austin Carlson 11:15.5
Freshman Boys Jonah Bennion 10:27.9 Ken Uechi 10:41.4 Cason McCulloch 10:57.6 Porter Clark 11:19.6 Tavin Shipp 11:23.0
Returners for boys ran 9:27, 10:02, 10:05, 10:21, 10:27, 10:27, 10:27, 10:27, 10:41
Returners for girls ran 10:54, 11:10, 11:18, 11:52, 11:57, 12:31
Kurtz obviously had a bad day, but I have a hard time seeing how next year's Rocky squad is going to take down CDA with those results. CDA is better at 1, 2 (with Rietze back), 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7. I think they are more likely to not trophy than they are to win, honestly.
Boise will be better at 3-7.
Mountain View might be close to equal at 1, should run close at 2, and then will be far better at 3 and close at 4 and 5.
Eagle will be better at 3-7.
I don't know that they will be so much better at 1 and 2 that it makes up for the weakness on the back end. They just drop off so hard at 4 and 5. Even if they see improvement, it's not like those other teams aren't seeing guys have big improvements as well.
This is huge for Rocky Mountain.
They're boys just averaged 9 seconds faster than last year, when they got 4th at NXR. Somebody a post or two above me said that the best Rocky can hope for is 5th at NXR, but I'm not sure if that's true because the Rocky boys just ran a lot faster than I expected.
Plugging these times into the imperfect Tullyrunners track time to speed rating conversion, we get: 187, 178, 177, 177, 167, 159, 157.
For reference that would place 9th, 40th, 45th, 46th, 95th, 146th, 155th at NXR last year.
Good for a raw score of: 235
Last year's top 4 raw scores:
CDA - 189
Crater - 193
Franklin - 231
Rocky - 243
If Kurtz is anywhere in the top 80, that can bring the score down to 220 or lower, putting them on par or better than Franklin was last year.
Of course everything I said was just speculation so take it how you will but that's hopefully some interesting data.
Cody Lucas 9:10.9 Hyrum Tuft 9:27.9 Parker Goggins 9:28.2 Jacob Thomas 9:28.8 Jaymon Clark 9:49.2 Jack Davis 10:02.3 Thomas Kurtz 10:05.1
Sophomore Boys Harrison Loscher 10:21.1 Dylan Anson 10:27.2 Michael Majors (has a typo, I think) 10:27.3 Ray Clark 10:27.5 Skyler McCune 10:49.9 Austin Carlson 11:15.5
Freshman Boys Jonah Bennion 10:27.9 Ken Uechi 10:41.4 Cason McCulloch 10:57.6 Porter Clark 11:19.6 Tavin Shipp 11:23.0
Returners for boys ran 9:27, 10:02, 10:05, 10:21, 10:27, 10:27, 10:27, 10:27, 10:41
Returners for girls ran 10:54, 11:10, 11:18, 11:52, 11:57, 12:31
Kurtz obviously had a bad day, but I have a hard time seeing how next year's Rocky squad is going to take down CDA with those results. CDA is better at 1, 2 (with Rietze back), 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7. I think they are more likely to not trophy than they are to win, honestly.
Boise will be better at 3-7.
Mountain View might be close to equal at 1, should run close at 2, and then will be far better at 3 and close at 4 and 5.
Eagle will be better at 3-7.
I don't know that they will be so much better at 1 and 2 that it makes up for the weakness on the back end. They just drop off so hard at 4 and 5. Even if they see improvement, it's not like those other teams aren't seeing guys have big improvements as well.
This is huge for Rocky Mountain.
They're boys just averaged 9 seconds faster than last year, when they got 4th at NXR. Somebody a post or two above me said that the best Rocky can hope for is 5th at NXR, but I'm not sure if that's true because the Rocky boys just ran a lot faster than I expected.
Plugging these times into the imperfect Tullyrunners track time to speed rating conversion, we get: 187, 178, 177, 177, 167, 159, 157.
For reference that would place 9th, 40th, 45th, 46th, 95th, 146th, 155th at NXR last year.
Good for a raw score of: 235
Last year's top 4 raw scores:
CDA - 189
Crater - 193
Franklin - 231
Rocky - 243
If Kurtz is anywhere in the top 80, that can bring the score down to 220 or lower, putting them on par or better than Franklin was last year.
Of course everything I said was just speculation so take it how you will but that's hopefully some interesting data.
They are also a ton better than the boys have recorded this year in other meets. Same with the girls.
I would have some concern about Kurtz as last year he ran his best race at Gary Ward, had a little bit of a down day at Bob Conley, then ran 10:00, got 24th at Districts, 68th at State, and 154th at NXR.
This year, he got 7th at the Discovery race, losing to Jaymon Clark and beating a boy by only 5 seconds that has broken 17:30 only twice in Idaho, and then runs 10:05. That's starting to look like a trend at this point.
Cody Lucas 9:10.9 Hyrum Tuft 9:27.9 Parker Goggins 9:28.2 Jacob Thomas 9:28.8 Jaymon Clark 9:49.2 Jack Davis 10:02.3 Thomas Kurtz 10:05.1
Sophomore Boys Harrison Loscher 10:21.1 Dylan Anson 10:27.2 Michael Majors (has a typo, I think) 10:27.3 Ray Clark 10:27.5 Skyler McCune 10:49.9 Austin Carlson 11:15.5
Freshman Boys Jonah Bennion 10:27.9 Ken Uechi 10:41.4 Cason McCulloch 10:57.6 Porter Clark 11:19.6 Tavin Shipp 11:23.0
Returners for boys ran 9:27, 10:02, 10:05, 10:21, 10:27, 10:27, 10:27, 10:27, 10:41
Returners for girls ran 10:54, 11:10, 11:18, 11:52, 11:57, 12:31
Kurtz obviously had a bad day, but I have a hard time seeing how next year's Rocky squad is going to take down CDA with those results. CDA is better at 1, 2 (with Rietze back), 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7. I think they are more likely to not trophy than they are to win, honestly.
Boise will be better at 3-7.
Mountain View might be close to equal at 1, should run close at 2, and then will be far better at 3 and close at 4 and 5.
Eagle will be better at 3-7.
I don't know that they will be so much better at 1 and 2 that it makes up for the weakness on the back end. They just drop off so hard at 4 and 5. Even if they see improvement, it's not like those other teams aren't seeing guys have big improvements as well.
The times are now edited for altitude conversions. That's a little deceptive, no?
Cody Lucas 9:10.9 Hyrum Tuft 9:27.9 Parker Goggins 9:28.2 Jacob Thomas 9:28.8 Jaymon Clark 9:49.2 Jack Davis 10:02.3 Thomas Kurtz 10:05.1
Sophomore Boys Harrison Loscher 10:21.1 Dylan Anson 10:27.2 Michael Majors (has a typo, I think) 10:27.3 Ray Clark 10:27.5 Skyler McCune 10:49.9 Austin Carlson 11:15.5
Freshman Boys Jonah Bennion 10:27.9 Ken Uechi 10:41.4 Cason McCulloch 10:57.6 Porter Clark 11:19.6 Tavin Shipp 11:23.0
Returners for boys ran 9:27, 10:02, 10:05, 10:21, 10:27, 10:27, 10:27, 10:27, 10:41
Returners for girls ran 10:54, 11:10, 11:18, 11:52, 11:57, 12:31
Kurtz obviously had a bad day, but I have a hard time seeing how next year's Rocky squad is going to take down CDA with those results. CDA is better at 1, 2 (with Rietze back), 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7. I think they are more likely to not trophy than they are to win, honestly.
Boise will be better at 3-7.
Mountain View might be close to equal at 1, should run close at 2, and then will be far better at 3 and close at 4 and 5.
Eagle will be better at 3-7.
I don't know that they will be so much better at 1 and 2 that it makes up for the weakness on the back end. They just drop off so hard at 4 and 5. Even if they see improvement, it's not like those other teams aren't seeing guys have big improvements as well.
The times are now edited for altitude conversions. That's a little deceptive, no?
Rocky Parents/Coaches please respond:
Was it the Hoka Postal people who adjusted the times, or was it the Rocky coaching staff?
The times are now edited for altitude conversions. That's a little deceptive, no?
Rocky Parents/Coaches please respond:
Was it the Hoka Postal people who adjusted the times, or was it the Rocky coaching staff?
The results notably had an error last year that went uncorrected for months. You think that Hoka jumped on and edited Rocky results in a matter of hours?
What's the deal with the Bugtown results? Why are they so fast? The first boy in the varsity race to not get a season or personal best was in 79th. The first girl was in 107th.
Course was pretty clearly short. Not sure by how much, as the first 30 Strava's I checked were either a manual input of 3.1, or private.
Speaking of courses being the wrong distance, why are so many off this year? It feels like Bugtown is the 4th or 5th course that's obviously short or long for Idaho teams.
Obviously in XC it's rare to find an exact 5k, but I feel like the margins that these courses are off by are much bigger this year. I wonder if part of it is because Strava let's us see much more GPS data than we could in the past...