Jump on the bandwagon now. Parker Valby is officially a SENSATION!!! Should we hand her the NCAA 5000 and 10,000 records now?

That is some serious cherrypicking. So far Tuohy beat Valby in two 5000m track races and absolutely ran her down spotting her a 12 second lead in Stillwater. There is nothing to support that Valby will beat Tuohy last time all things being equal. That said Valby is very good. I could see her getting a low 15:00s at BU in February.

You’re looney tunes. They all took off at the start gun.

And your prognosis is weak, because based on what I’ve seen so far, I’m going to be very very disappointed if Valby doesn’t break 15 in February, if the pacing is good. And I hope she doesn’t get injured training for it.

You missed where I concluded the 15:05-10 times based on the SEC and track times, and before I mentioned Tuohy. I think if you go with Valby being in sub 15:00 shape then you would conclude way too many others were in 15:25 (or faster shape) at the SEC meet. I don't think anyone from that race has run a time since that would be suggested by Valby being that fast.

Oh so Valby was not 12 seconds ahead of Tuohy before Tuohy ran her down in the final 2k? Got it. So basically all your analysis amounts to stanning for your favorite and rationalizing a loss. Because it cannot possibly be that Tuohy has just been better.

If you wish to spend the time on that analysis, just go down the list, one by one, comparing Valby’s SEC times against the respective SEC and BU times of the athletes that competed in both meets. There will be fluctuation; maybe throw out the high and low, but you’ll get an idea on how many seconds faster she is. That simple analysis would be irrelevant (not include) Tuohy, or any other athlete not at those two meets, thus less muddying of the water.

Are you flipping crazy? Just because the athletes chose to expend their energies differently across the distance does not mean one was ‘spotting’ the other some time differential. It doesn’t work that way.

Where did I say Valby was better than Tuohy in the Natty’s race. I think Valby did well, all things considered. So did Tuohy.

Valby was 12 seconds ahead with 2k to go. You cannot spin your way out of it. Just admit it.

You can't seem to grasp that they started at the same time and ran to the same finish line. You make it seem like Valby's strategy was better and easier. Tuhoy should be a smarter racer. I will forward your post to her.

Well put

and once again you seem to be assuming noone improved post the SEC meet which would be in the very limited athletes to compare.

Valby did not slow down, was running very fast, was 12 seconds ahead at the 4k mark and got absolutely run down. That was phenomenal.

Anyway Valby is very good. One of the strongest ncaa runners I have seen. I expect a really good 5000m time from her. But the pretzel twisting to rationalize a straight up loss or to come up with a rationale why track will go differently is silly. Valby could certainly win in March. But right now Tuohy is the favorite.

Until now, we thought Valby had bad tactics but you pointed out that she had ideal tactics while Tuohy spotted her 12 seconds I guess you confirmed why Tuohy didn't get into Stanford or Florida.

Valby ran a strong race, but got beat by a more savvy athlete. Yes, the course and conditions factored into the outcome, but I’m not in your imagined group of ‘pretzel twisters’ trying to rationalize why she lost at Natty’s.

Kellogg projected a potential track time for Valby based on a x-country race result conducted on a fast course. With further incoming data, I modified his projection. The result was more conservative than his projection. I didn’t plan it that way.

It’s not guaranteed, but taking these other athletes times into account, the analysis indicates that Valby’s SEC race suggests sub-15 fitness.

But the issue of whether the analysis is in error because Tuohy did not run as fast as she should of, when comparing athlete times, is a completely different matter.

Edit: “…should *have” 🤦‍♂️

^^^Can you even comprehend how hypocritical it is for you to go through the process of what you call “‘pretzel twisting’ rationalization” for why Tuohy didn’t run up to her capabilities at BU, when she not only did not go sub-15, but didn’t even get the collegiate record. Your reasons for her not doing so are valid. She is probably bummed. I’m not here to pour salt in her wound. Yet you don’t hesitate to throw counter accusations for anyone similarly rooting for an athlete that is not-tuohy.

There are fast tracks in indoor. That is why the BU event is so popular, because it is a chance to get an early qualifying time. Nothing against rooting. Have at it.