lost the weight wrote:
Hocker’s PR was 3:58 when he ran 3:50
Hobbs PR was 4:08 when he ran 3:57
Wheating’s PR was 3:38 when he ran 3:30
That means Mu might beat 4.30. I don't think that is disputed.
lost the weight wrote:
Hocker’s PR was 3:58 when he ran 3:50
Hobbs PR was 4:08 when he ran 3:57
Wheating’s PR was 3:38 when he ran 3:30
That means Mu might beat 4.30. I don't think that is disputed.
versy tile wrote:
And they were at at a higher point than Mu currently is which allows for more improvement.
No, it doesn't. It is relative to each runner.
You think a guy who is at 3:30 has as much room to improve 10 seconds as a guy who is at 4:30? Oh man.
Armstronglivs wrote:
versy tile wrote:
And they were at at a higher point than Mu currently is which allows for more improvement.
No, it doesn't. It is relative to each runner.
Just to play fully into this relativism you speak of:
So it’s just as hard for Hicham to go from 3:26 to 3:25 as it is for Jimmy CrossFit to go from 6:26 to 6:25. Got it. Seconds dropped = seconds stopped.
Secondly, those runners focused on the 1500m… several more “at bats” so to speak than Mu, and were still able to register big drops.
Seconds dropped = seconds dropped.**
high school xc coach wrote:
brazier is not as fast as you think he is. he is a 45.xx relay guy. 46.xx open guy.
unless you have proof that says otherwise.
Well, first of all, important context:
(1) The only post-HS 4x4 splits that I know of for Brazier came during his freshman year at A&M when he was 18-years old (turned 19 during the early part of the outdoor season) and still physically maturing.
(2) He had a back injury that prevented him from finishing the NCAA Indoor prelim in March and that led to a very cautious April and May of racing while he rehabbed.
(3) None of his 4x4 legs were run fresh; he always ran an 800 or 400 prior to the relay.
I can’t find official relay splits for several of the meets he ran in but did find at least two where he split 45s despite running about an hour or two after quality 800m performances (including his collegiate record 1:43 at NCAA Outdoors).
I find it entirely plausible to think that someone who can split a 45 within 90 minutes of a 1:43 could probably split a 44 if totally fresh and under ideal conditions.
But I also have a hard time thinking that a healthy 24-year old Brazier at full physical maturation and clearly more powerful and dynamic as an athlete than he was as a more twiggy freshman would be incapable of splitting a 44.
To my mind, if you can do that, you have world-class 400 speed. It is certainly much faster than your average 1500 runner! I really don’t care what you can run out of a block start since that technical skill is totally irrelevant to one’s 800 or 1500 ability compared to simply knowing how fast one can cover 400 meters once in motion.
I guess we may have a better answer to all of this about the same time as we have a better answer about Mu’s (present) mile capacity on Saturday since Brazier is entered in the 400. If he runs sub-46 in an early season indoor 400, then I would hope anyone with any knowledge of the sport would grant that he likely could split sub-45 outdoors under good conditions when fully peaked.
Jo72 wrote:
I am not a physiologist, so I cannot explain it, except pointing out that this is a stable difference in over 50 years of professionalized athletics, including eras with women who took large amounts of steroids to improve performance.
The tendency is also pretty clear for men (and here we have more data since the early 20th century), that there is one type of 800m runner who might still do o.k. in 1000m but gets much worse in the 1500m and the 800/1500m guy with mediocre 400m.
And the fact that the DSD athletes like Semenya and Niyonsaba are also much closer to typical male ranges, i.e. sub 50 + sub4 in the first case and the ease to go from world class 800m to 10k in the second, also points towards a gender difference.
It's not that there were not a few sub 50 sub 1:56 women and a few more sub 1:56 sub 4 ones, so either half of the task is rare but possible (although I think most of these case, except Mu, are highly likely to have been doped in Eastern bloc fashion). But nobody ran sub 50 AND sub 4 1500, except Semenya.
I doubt it always was for lack of trying, although this might have been a factor.
Good post.
94 women have broken 50” in history, and from those 94 the best 1500 or mile performance (apart from Semenya) is a 4:13.08 1500 by Ana Quirot. Quirot had PBs of 49.61 and 1:54.44 compared to Mu’s 49.57 and 1:55.04. She ran the 4:13 on September 3rd, 1997 after winning World Championship gold and clocking 1:54.8 that August. Mu might run a superior mile on Saturday, but to predict sub-4:25 is foolhardy, statistically speaking.
Armstronglivs wrote:
Armstrongleaves wrote:
Thanks—appreciate you taking the time to put a response together.
The obvious person that comes to mind is Donavan Brazier (notably absent from your prior list with Amos and Korir).
He ran 3:35 in one of those weird return-from-pandemic races in Oregon in the summer of 2020. That alone seems reasonably world-class to me but I think it’s also not even close to what he could run if he went all-in on the 1500 and was racing somewhere like Monaco. Craig Engels who trains with him and has raced pretty much every world-class miler called Brazier the most talented male middle-distance athlete in the world and said he has vast untapped potential in the 1500 that he has not yet decided to pursue. And, of course, it remains unclear if he ever will while in his prime.
He also ran numerous 44 second splits on the A&M 4 x 4 during his lone year in college. I get that he’d be unlikely to make it to a global open 400 final but I’m also not sure there are 20 dudes in the world that I would choose before him in a pickup 4 x 4.
To me, the time someone runs in an open 400 is only relevant for discussions like this (about the physiological dimensions of having world-class 400 & 1500 potential) if it’s the only data point we have access to. Nobody uses block starts for the 800 or 1500, so what is really relevant here in assessing world-class 400 speed is how fast a given body can make it around a track from a flying start. In 2019, another talented former Aggie middle distance star, Devin Dixon, split the fastest indoor 400 time ever (44.24), by anyone (including Norman, Benjamin, Kerley, James, Warner, etc.). His open PR (outdoors) is 45.22. If I’m assessing Dixon’s 800 or 1500 potential, I consider it far more relevant that his body went two laps around an indoor track faster than even peak-Michael Norman’s than that he managed to execute a block start well-enough to run a solid but not jaw dropping time outdoors.
But, yeah, I feel pretty comfortable holding Brazier out as a relevant example of someone whose body is capable of running 400 meters in under 45 and 1500 meters in under 3:34. He definitely, in my mind, breaks the 4/8 vs 8/15 dichotomy for middle-distance physiology.
And I think Mu is even more talented, especially in terms of speed, than he is, as she very well could have won (or at least medaled) in the open 400 at the Olympics to say nothing of her all-time quality 48.32 split on the 4x4.
But you also don’t break 5 in the mile at 14 and finish second in a national XC 5K race at 15 (almost surely off of raw ability and middle distance training) if you don’t have some exceptionally high aerobic capacity. I think she is precisely a mold-breaker that defies the standard 4/8 vs 8/15 distinction (that I agree can serve as a useful tool for most cases).
(Strangely, Armstronglivs has said here that Mu is “not an endurance athlete” and also on a separate thread that she’s also “not a sprinter”. Not sure what he thinks her athlete profile actually IS…)
I’d be very curious to see a detailed research analysis of how all the relevant “measurables” for her come together to (at least partially) explain her unprecedented abilities. Her build and highly efficient running economy are quite unique to her. I’m guessing the relative percentages of various muscle fiber types may also be quite unique. And she may well have surprisingly high VO2 Max and/or unusually effective metabolic or enzymatic traits. I’m of the opinion that her “immeasurables” (mindset, confidence, and drive) are also better than almost anyone else in the business and that this plays a huge role in being able to reliably perform at or above the highest standards of excellence time and time again.
You have built a case on sand. Brazier is not a 44x runner over the 400 - not in a relay, not in anything. His best time is listed as barely under 47. That isn't world class for that event. Nor will he ever make a championship final in the 1500. He is an 800 specialist.
I have said that Mu isn't an "endurance" athlete - correct. If she was she would be posting comparable 1500 times to her 800 times - sub-3.55. She has so far run 4.16. She will likely run faster but I would bet she will never break 4 or get near it. She is world-class over the 400. That makes her a "speed-based" runner, as I have said. But I wouldn't call her a sprinter, for the reason that she isn't and never will be world class over the 100/200. She will never be a Felix. We don't know how much faster she may get over the 400 - I doubt she will go below 49 in competition (not a relay) but she is undoubtedly a world beater over the 800. But it won't happen in the 1500.
Hey Everyone, guess what? I have it on the authority of a random guy on the internet that Charles Grethen and Ignacio Fontes can make a global (Olympics!) 1500m final but not this guy who ran 3:35 with a 38 second final 300 and 25 second final 200.
https://youtu.be/O2xNqBV8OaYNever! He can’t do it! Under any set of conditions! Even if he decided to go all in on the 1500 with his training and racing! Armstrong says so!
versy tile wrote:
You think a guy who is at 3:30 has as much room to improve 10 seconds as a guy who is at 4:30? Oh man.
That isn't the comparison. It is between those guys and Mu's current best. But they are pointless comparisons because no two runners are the same. There is no reason why any one runner will do what another has. Mu is slow over a mile. We don't know yet what she has. I doubt that it is another 15-20 secs, like some seem to think.
Armstrong-leaves wrote:
high school xc coach wrote:
brazier is not as fast as you think he is. he is a 45.xx relay guy. 46.xx open guy.
unless you have proof that says otherwise.
Well, first of all, important context:
(1) The only post-HS 4x4 splits that I know of for Brazier came during his freshman year at A&M when he was 18-years old (turned 19 during the early part of the outdoor season) and still physically maturing.
(2) He had a back injury that prevented him from finishing the NCAA Indoor prelim in March and that led to a very cautious April and May of racing while he rehabbed.
(3) None of his 4x4 legs were run fresh; he always ran an 800 or 400 prior to the relay.
I can’t find official relay splits for several of the meets he ran in but did find at least two where he split 45s despite running about an hour or two after quality 800m performances (including his collegiate record 1:43 at NCAA Outdoors).
I find it entirely plausible to think that someone who can split a 45 within 90 minutes of a 1:43 could probably split a 44 if totally fresh and under ideal conditions.
But I also have a hard time thinking that a healthy 24-year old Brazier at full physical maturation and clearly more powerful and dynamic as an athlete than he was as a more twiggy freshman would be incapable of splitting a 44.
To my mind, if you can do that, you have world-class 400 speed. It is certainly much faster than your average 1500 runner! I really don’t care what you can run out of a block start since that technical skill is totally irrelevant to one’s 800 or 1500 ability compared to simply knowing how fast one can cover 400 meters once in motion.
I guess we may have a better answer to all of this about the same time as we have a better answer about Mu’s (present) mile capacity on Saturday since Brazier is entered in the 400. If he runs sub-46 in an early season indoor 400, then I would hope anyone with any knowledge of the sport would grant that he likely could split sub-45 outdoors under good conditions when fully peaked.
You spin a good story but the fact remains he can barely beat 47s for his best effort. Only recorded times count, not imagined times.
lost the weight wrote:
Armstronglivs wrote:
No, it doesn't. It is relative to each runner.
Just to play fully into this relativism you speak of:
So it’s just as hard for Hicham to go from 3:26 to 3:25 as it is for Jimmy CrossFit to go from 6:26 to 6:25. Got it. Seconds dropped = seconds stopped.
Secondly, those runners focused on the 1500m… several more “at bats” so to speak than Mu, and were still able to register big drops.
So Mu is being likened to Jimmy CrossFit? I thought we were talking about an Olympic champion here.
Armstrong-leaves wrote:
Armstronglivs wrote:
You have built a case on sand. Brazier is not a 44x runner over the 400 - not in a relay, not in anything. His best time is listed as barely under 47. That isn't world class for that event. Nor will he ever make a championship final in the 1500. He is an 800 specialist.
I have said that Mu isn't an "endurance" athlete - correct. If she was she would be posting comparable 1500 times to her 800 times - sub-3.55. She has so far run 4.16. She will likely run faster but I would bet she will never break 4 or get near it. She is world-class over the 400. That makes her a "speed-based" runner, as I have said. But I wouldn't call her a sprinter, for the reason that she isn't and never will be world class over the 100/200. She will never be a Felix. We don't know how much faster she may get over the 400 - I doubt she will go below 49 in competition (not a relay) but she is undoubtedly a world beater over the 800. But it won't happen in the 1500.
Hey Everyone, guess what? I have it on the authority of a random guy on the internet that Charles Grethen and Ignacio Fontes can make a global (Olympics!) 1500m final but not this guy who ran 3:35 with a 38 second final 300 and 25 second final 200.
https://youtu.be/O2xNqBV8OaYNever! He can’t do it! Under any set of conditions! Even if he decided to go all in on the 1500 with his training and racing! Armstrong says so!
I doubt that Brazier has any interest in proving me wrong. I guess you'll have to keep imagining what he can do - as you do with every runner you discuss. Most of their races are run in your mind, not on the track.
John Wesley Harding wrote:
Jo72 wrote:
It's not that there were not a few sub 50 sub 1:56 women and a few more sub 1:56 sub 4 ones, so either half of the task is rare but possible (although I think most of these case, except Mu, are highly likely to have been doped in Eastern bloc fashion). But nobody ran sub 50 AND sub 4 1500, except Semenya.
I doubt it always was for lack of trying, although this might have been a factor.
Good post.
94 women have broken 50” in history, and from those 94 the best 1500 or mile performance (apart from Semenya) is a 4:13.08 1500 by Ana Quirot. Quirot had PBs of 49.61 and 1:54.44 compared to Mu’s 49.57 and 1:55.04. She ran the 4:13 on September 3rd, 1997 after winning World Championship gold and clocking 1:54.8 that August. Mu might run a superior mile on Saturday, but to predict sub-4:25 is foolhardy, statistically speaking.
If one looks the other way round for fast 400m marks by 1:54-56 and sub 4:05 or so women, there are some in the high 50s and 51s (Mutola and several Russians). Now we know for a fact that Eastern bloc doping was very efficient in sprints and middle distances, so these data are distorted by that fact. And of course, it might be that block start slowed people down or they rarely ran 400m seriously or only in their youth or whatever. Nevertheless 49.5 is MUCH better than 51.5, so Mu would be an extraordinary outlier with a career best of ca. 4:00 1500m or 4:20 mile. It would beat Olizarenko and Mutola for best 400+1500. If she runs such a time tomorrow after a 4:37 best, she might become the greatest outlier in the history of running, I'd say.
Because Olizarenko (all marks July 1980) was obviously helped by doping:
400 Metres 50.96
800 Metres 1:53.43
1500 Metres 3:59.48
In general it makes very little sense to compare Mu to any preceding greats of women mid-distance running, because it's safe to assume most of them were either doped or intersex.
Mu is in her own league and we need to just lean back and watch history in making.
This makes Mu even more of an outlier. But I think it is beside the point. The division into 400/800 and 800/1500 types shows also in males and in runners on a less exalted level. If anything it was weakened by industrial strength doping.
There ist little but insisting on a one in a billion exception to claim that Mu is not only special (clearly true) but hyperspecial in an *unprecedented way* with not even a clear male example in many decades of high level running. Because with all due respect, Brazier is more speculative than Mu as he has no great 400m mark yet.
Because this distance was discussed in another thread, look at the all time 1000m lists to see how this distance that is closest to the 800 is dominated by the 800/1500 type, so the speed based runner typically does already much worse for a ca. 30% longer effort, not a twice as long one. 9 out of the top 10 men are 1500m types (Kimwetich is the exception) and 6, or if one discounts Semenya, 7 out of top 10 women are 1500m runners (and Wachtel and Steukert are 2 or more seconds slower than Mu in the 400m, so more "pure" 800m types, not really 400/800)
Armstronglivs wrote:
Armstrong-leaves wrote:
Well, first of all, important context:
(1) The only post-HS 4x4 splits that I know of for Brazier came during his freshman year at A&M when he was 18-years old (turned 19 during the early part of the outdoor season) and still physically maturing.
(2) He had a back injury that prevented him from finishing the NCAA Indoor prelim in March and that led to a very cautious April and May of racing while he rehabbed.
(3) None of his 4x4 legs were run fresh; he always ran an 800 or 400 prior to the relay.
I can’t find official relay splits for several of the meets he ran in but did find at least two where he split 45s despite running about an hour or two after quality 800m performances (including his collegiate record 1:43 at NCAA Outdoors).
I find it entirely plausible to think that someone who can split a 45 within 90 minutes of a 1:43 could probably split a 44 if totally fresh and under ideal conditions.
But I also have a hard time thinking that a healthy 24-year old Brazier at full physical maturation and clearly more powerful and dynamic as an athlete than he was as a more twiggy freshman would be incapable of splitting a 44.
To my mind, if you can do that, you have world-class 400 speed. It is certainly much faster than your average 1500 runner! I really don’t care what you can run out of a block start since that technical skill is totally irrelevant to one’s 800 or 1500 ability compared to simply knowing how fast one can cover 400 meters once in motion.
I guess we may have a better answer to all of this about the same time as we have a better answer about Mu’s (present) mile capacity on Saturday since Brazier is entered in the 400. If he runs sub-46 in an early season indoor 400, then I would hope anyone with any knowledge of the sport would grant that he likely could split sub-45 outdoors under good conditions when fully peaked.
You spin a good story but the fact remains he can barely beat 47s for his best effort. Only recorded times count, not imagined times.
A 19-year old Brazier split 45.78 about an hour after running a collegiate record 1:43 for 800. (A much older 400m stud who broke Watts’ CR the next year, Fred Kerley, split 45 flat in that race for comparison.)
https://12thman.com/news/2016/6/10/track-and-field-texas-am-freshman-donavan-brazier-breaks-50-year-old-collegiate-record-to-win-ncaa-800m-title.aspxIf you think that a healthy. fresh, much more powerful 24-year old Brazier couldn’t exceed that time, then you are hopelessly out of touch with how track works. And let’s hope for the sake of all that you have no role at all in coaching or advising runners at any level.
But, by all means, continue thinking that the full measure of Brazier’s 400m capacity is captured by what he ran this one time in his first race in January 2018, out of blocks, and on a two lap indoor track.
It is 20. She will drop 10 this week alone.
Lollys Master wrote:
In general it makes very little sense to compare Mu to any preceding greats of women mid-distance running, because it's safe to assume most of them were either doped or intersex.
Mu is in her own league and we need to just lean back and watch history in making.
Lollys Master wrote:
In general it makes very little sense to compare Mu to any preceding greats of women mid-distance running, because it's safe to assume most of them were either doped or intersex.
Mu is in her own league and we need to just lean back and watch history in making.
Spot on.
We’ve never ever seen anyone with Mu’s unique build, highly efficient running economy, and leg speed, let alone combined with phenomenal racing psychology and acumen. There has literally never been another female in human history who ran sub-5 for the mile at 14, then 18:31 in a one-off national championship XC 5K at 15, and then 1:23 for an indoor 600 at 16. (And I hope we can all grant that she was not doping as a young teenager, for the love of God!)
Of course, there very likely have been other women among the billions born over the last 50 years or so who may have been physically capable of achieving similar performances but who, for any number of reasons, never found themselves in a context to express that potential.
Let’s face it—most really good athletes across the world who COULD be really good in the 800 or mile will never find that out. They are much more likely to end up playing soccer or some other sport. And if they end up actually in track, they are more likely to stick in the 100/200/400 range since, frankly, these are higher profile and require far less suffering than an all-out 800 or mile. Even if you have tremendous talent, you can only be great at the 800 or mile if you actually WANT to run those events and have the right coaches, systems, and opportunities.
All of which is to say, Jo72’s hypothesis here would be much stronger if we had data about EVERY human female after years of serious training.
But we don’t.
We have data for the relative handful of athletes who had everything break just right to get them into the sport and continue long enough to rise to the top of a very niche activity (long sprinting and middle-distance racing).
And for even the most powerful and sophisticated explanatory models, there will be places where it is no longer powerful or even much relevant. That’s what outliers do—call attention to the fact that an ordinarily useful conceptual tool simply fails in certain exceptional cases. Those of us using our eyes rather than our cherished preconceived models see that in Mu.
I don’t know for sure what she will run this mile in tomorrow, though I feel pretty comfortable saying it will be under 4:27. And who knows how much better it COULD be if she actually dedicated the next 2-3 year specifically to it (I suspect sub-4:20 if she threw everything at it in her prime).
But I do know one thing: SHE DIFFERENT.
You are correct.
Maybe 3:28 but I am sticking with 3:29.