Down goes the Dow

Mellon aids wrote:

mellon wrote:

You're not exactly a genius, are you? It sure does not take one to know that anyone who, speaking of a market downturn, claims "it ain't gonna happen" is not thinking clearly.

You didn't read my post.

I said it will not be down March 2019 from where it was in March 2015 when he started this Market crash (60% drop) talk.

I was thinking clearly when I said it about 2016, 2017, 2018 and we'll see how clear I'm thinking come March 2019.

Listening to him 2015, shame on him. Listening to him today, shame on you.

“The risk in the stock market is under appreciated. QE has distorted equity prices and the next big move is down rather than up. The Schiller PE is 27 and valuations are stretched when measured against other valuation models. Remember, the stock market has had two 50% down markets in the past fifteen years. The fifteen year average compounded return on the S&P is only 4.3%, which is inferior to treasuries. Treasuries are overvalued as well. Cash is the superior asset class when risk returns to the market.”

Shame on your distortions....[/quote]

Why do you keep leaving out your comment that "It ain't gonna happen"? Your comment is still posted for all to read. You do k now this? You can't win this one with a lie.

Why do you keep leaving out your comment that "It ain't gonna happen"? Your comment is still posted for all to read. You do k now this? You can't win this one with a lie.[/quote]

Wrong!

15 years ago the S&P was at 1058 and today it is at 2,760. That is a 174% increase.

Not exactly sure what that comes out as in compounded returns, but simple math would average it out at 11.6% per year.

If you want to be taken seriously, you could start by a) gut checking your fundamental premise for reasonableness

b) check your math

c) site the source of your quotation (duh!)

d) likewise, not the date upon which the observation was based upon.

Until then, you ain't nothin' but a muffin (in the words of Frank Z.)

No genius wrote:

7:15 local wrote:

You seem to know a lot about that poster. You must the stalker folks here talk about.

You're not exactly a genius, are you? It sure does not take one to know that anyone who, speaking of a market downturn, claims "it ain't gonna happen" is not thinking clearly.

Nor does it take personal knowledge of these believers in the market posting on this thread to guess that they lie about their market performance and have little invested in any event.

You ought not to take shots at those far more proficient at delivering them than you are.

I never said any of those things.

7:15 local wrote:

No genius wrote:

You're not exactly a genius, are you? It sure does not take one to know that anyone who, speaking of a market downturn, claims "it ain't gonna happen" is not thinking clearly.

Nor does it take personal knowledge of these believers in the market posting on this thread to guess that they lie about their market performance and have little invested in any event.

You ought not to take shots at those far more proficient at delivering them than you are.

I never said any of those things.

You never said "it ain't gonna happen" in reference to a market downturn?

Or that someone must be a stalker for knowing people on Letsrun lie and exaggerate their investment performance and wealth?

Who did?

Seattle,

Don’t forget the market does not do a simple compounding as you are alluding to when it goes down 54% 3/2000-10/2002 and 59% 10/2007-3/2009.

Igy

The Point wrote:

7:15 local wrote:

I never said any of those things.

You never said "it ain't gonna happen" in reference to a market downturn?

Or that someone must be a stalker for knowing people on Letsrun lie and exaggerate their investment performance and wealth?

Who did?

Can you not read?

Seattle,

Good piece on compounding and actual market returns.

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/this-cycle-will-end-the-simple-math-of-forward-returns/

Igy

Impersonating someone who is no longer among us is not funny. Go away, troll.

Iggy is gone but alive. You are comatose. This thread is dead.

Yutre wrote:

Impersonating someone who is no longer among us is not funny. Go away, troll.

Someone has to post stupid shit in his absence.

Igy 7/7/2018 wrote:

Yutre wrote:

Impersonating someone who is no longer among us is not funny. Go away, troll.

Someone has to post stupid shit in his absence.

Only true every time you post comatose one.

Note iced wrote:

Igy 7/7/2018 wrote:

Someone has to post stupid shit in his absence.

Only true every time you post comatose one.

That may be the worst sentence ever written.

No genius wrote:

Note iced wrote:

Only true every time you post comatose one.

That may be the worst sentence ever written.

So you say today but not tomorrow Toto.

Yutre is Igy infatuated. Displays psychological imbalance. Needs to run more or run less. More opioids or fewer opiods. To get a life is pointless.

No genius wrote:

Yutre is Igy infatuated. Displays psychological imbalance. Needs to run more or run less. More opioids or fewer opiods. To get a life is pointless.

I noticed the same.

That sums it up.

why oh why wrote:

[quote]Mellon aids wrote:

[quote]mellon wrote:

[quote]No genius wrote:

Why do you keep leaving out your comment that "It ain't gonna happen"? Your comment is still posted for all to read. You do k now this? You can't win this one with a lie.

I'm not leaving anything out. I stand behind my post.

The market being lower in March 2019 than it was in March 2015 "Ain't gonna Happen".

I'll even go one better. It ain't gonna be lower than it was March 2016,2017,2018. I know, I'm not thinking clear.

Mellon wrote:

why oh why wrote:

[quote]Mellon aids wrote:

[quote]mellon wrote:

[quote]No genius wrote:

Why do you keep leaving out your comment that "It ain't gonna happen"? Your comment is still posted for all to read. You do k now this? You can't win this one with a lie.

I'm not leaving anything out. I stand behind my post.

The market being lower in March 2019 than it was in March 2015 "Ain't gonna Happen".

I'll even go one better. It ain't gonna be lower than it was March 2016,2017,2018. I know, I'm not thinking clear.

I would have to agree.

But, really, when evaluating situations like this, it's more of an issue or probability than anything else.

While it is not out of the question that the market would fall that far, it is not very likely, and frankly, the only way to assess it is in terms of probability.

Back in 2015, the SNP was 32% lower. Not an unheard of drop, but one would have to think there would need to be a major reversal of the strong economic growth we have been experiencing, and the possiblity of aggressive interest rate hikes have already been factored in at this point. Over the next couple of years, the market traded sideways, so the same applies.

As for march 2017, we are up about 18% since then. A drop of that much could realistically happen, esp. after such a sustained period of appreciation. I don't think that is out of the question. If you were to ask my opinion, i would say that the probability is less than 50% by some measure, but it would not surprise me.

March 2018? We are already lower than this day in March. So what? Those fluctuations change daily.

One thing i think to consider if that if there's going to be a large drop that wipes out several years of gains, it's not necessarily going to happen in a few months. It's going to take the compounding effect of several factors and it's going to have to involve a very substantial collective re-thinking of the underlying premises that have driven this recovery. That will take some time if it were to occur, and i'm not sure there is the political will to let the markets free-fall to those levels. So, to the extent they are able, i would bet the Administration would do what it could to reverse that.

As Trump is fond of saying, we will see.

Mellon wrote:

The market being lower in March 2019 than it was in March 2015 "Ain't gonna Happen".

You have a 50-50 chance of being correct. Most of us hope you are.