Alright folks, I'm back after a long and packed business trip. I haven't been able to keep up with all the posts, but did notice Sally freaking out when I stopped posting (no Sally, you cannot be my b*tch).
I have some really bad news, and yes for trump humpers. I attended a business conference in DC and part of it was dedicated to the election impact on the economy and households. One session was purely on how D and R political strategies have evolved and what is happening in the ecosystem. There was representation from political strategy firms which work for both parties and polling funders.
To summarize:
- Polls are materially unrealiable, including averages. There has been vast method over-correction with a significant bias for Trump vs 2022 and before. And it's too late to change anything at this point because you need consistent questions to determine a trend.
- Musk has been funding a huge number of pollsters whose methods favor Trump in an attempt to water down the national averages. This election cycle is by far the most biased pollsters have been due to being directly bought off.
- Musk and other ultra wealthy R donors have been rigging the betting markets. I know some of you already suspected this, but it's now been established. A lot of money has been injected to make it appear there is high favorability for Trump.
- Trump's ground game across swing states have turned out to be a sham.. according to the experts I heard from, there has been very little RNC presence in getting the vote out.
- Musk's app thing was apparantly just a stunt to pump BS stats about indicators of new R registrations.
- Musk has been literally buying votes with his daily $1 million lottery prize for those who declare they are trumpers.
- Trump's recent rallies in big cities were just to play to his base elsewhere... he knows he can get a lot of people to attend so it looks like he has stronger support.
This is to say that pretty much Trump's whole campaign has been a sham and much of what we have seen is pure desperation. Here's the part that hasn't been a sham but completely damming.
- The turnouts at his rallies have been nothing short of horrible, compared to what we say in 2020 and 2016. They are consistently having a hard time filling small venues.
- Trump's brain doesn't stop glitching. Not even FOX is willing to air his rallies and interviews for long. He's in serious cognitive decline. He's no longer a witty 3rd grader. It's a 10 word vocabulary and he repeats the same exact stories, but he's not able to tell them as coherently anymore.
- The lies are simply too exagerated and unrooted in reality to have the same effect of luring fed up Rs. The stuff he says just doesn't make any sense to be remotely believable for those folks.
- Much of what happens in the final weeks of voting isn't going to move the needle, but Trump is trying really hard to get more people to hate him and fear another Trump term. The disparaging and hateful racist comments aren't winning people over. This latest Puerto Rico thing was nothing short of a disaster.
But here's the most important part... the early voting stats is not telling the whole story because there is a huge number of Rs who supported Nikki and will be voting for Harris. Also, there are a number of pollsters that surveyed newly registered Rs in swing states and a sigificant number of them actually registered for the first time to make sure Trump does not win.
Kamala is consistently filling huge venues, but more importantly they are executing a very aggressive ground game. They have been pumping cable TV and social media with great ads, and they established a very solid social media presence. The experts at the conference said they know they are on their way to a huge victory but are doing better staying on the offense as they connect with desperate voters who fear a Trump win based on inaccurate polls.
When the results start coming in, most voters are going to be in complete shock. She's going to demolish him and it won't be close in the end.
