Russel 2000 up about 5% in the same time, ytd.
Russel 2000 up about 5% in the same time, ytd.
Like the hot stocks of the NASDAQ used by institutions to churn the market. You are just liquidity for the trade. You will see I am right soon enough.
Thank you. I certainly have been warned, and this isn't the first time.
Pretty easy to discern what is going on, the most overvalued areas of the market are still positive on the year. They are trading vehicles. The only way they earn their valuation is the ability for one to sell to another at a higher price to someone else. When that games end, they drop like a rock. Just use Bitcoin as a proxy for their future.
Mount batten wrote:
Interestingly the S&P 500 is at the same level as it closed on 1/3/2018. How many months is that?
Where was it at March 2015.
More importantly where will it be March 2019.
moving forward, i like the looks of Microsoft.
Apple's PE is still incredibably low, like 17.
Google (alphabet) is only in the 30s.
Correction : Google's PE 46 (but still not astronomical)
seattle prattle wrote:
moving forward, i like the looks of Microsoft.
Apple's PE is still incredibably low, like 17.
Google (alphabet) is only in the 30s.
MSFT: from 2017 revenue less than 2015, debt more than double. If you can only grow your company through stock buybacks and rising debt, then you tell me what the future is?
In regards to GOOG, 46 is more than 3 times cycle low. So no real value there unless you compare a over ripe apple to a rotten egg.
APPL, a company that can only use it’s hord of cash to buyback it’s stock at ever higher prices. Makes a good smart phone and tablet though.
MSFT 2017 Annual Report: https://www.microsoft.com/investor/reports/ar17/index.html
When the annual report starts with a comparison of the company stock to an equity index you know what the game is. It is not about managing the company for long term growth but rather short term gain for the benefit of corporate insiders.
Here is an article from my home country outlining the same game.
http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2018/07/02/stock-markets-look-ever-more-like-ponzi-schemes/
In the states stock buybacks were considered financial manipulation thirty years ago. That topic needs to be revisited and I am sure it will be when this bubble bursts.
Regarding Google, PE is higher than before but i would consider that justified by their inroads into the AI and cloud services.
More of the same will keep Apple in good shape, and Microsoft moving into cloud services as a strong player in that space.
seattle prattle wrote:
Regarding Google, PE is higher than before but i would consider that justified by their inroads into the AI and cloud services.
More of the same will keep Apple in good shape, and Microsoft moving into cloud services as a strong player in that space.
Along with IBM, ORCL, HPQ, DELL, CSCO and who else?
That is the story, of course just a narrative to justify valuation. Same as financials in 2007 and internet stocks in 2000 and the Nifty Fifty in the earlier era.
what isn't a narative to justify evaluation? Just becuase it's a narative, doesn't mean it's wrong.
And just because a valuation is high, doesn't mean it cannot be maintained.
seattle prattle wrote:
what isn't a narative to justify evaluation? Just becuase it's a narative, doesn't mean it's wrong.
And just because a valuation is high, doesn't mean it cannot be maintained.
My response would be the high valuation will be maintained as long as someone is willing to buy at a higher price. On the other hand if you are trying to justify the investment on profit and cash flow, with a reasonable return, it is generally not there. Of course your view, like many others, may be that does not matter. Well in four thousand years of financial history it always has.
Mount batten wrote:
Here is an article from my home country outlining the same game.
You live in Idaho, not the UK.
Geography not your thing wrote:
Mount batten wrote:
Here is an article from my home country outlining the same game.
You live in Idaho, not the UK.
Igy is not the brightest bulb. Just add geography to math and grammar as areas that he has demonstrated underwhelming knowledge.
Igy is gone but alive. This thread is dead.
Gruntz wrote:
Just add geography to math and grammar as areas that he has demonstrated underwhelming knowledge.
Just when I think I have seen the clunkiest sentence of all time....