Official Russia vs Ukraine War Thread

Precious Roy wrote:

Russia announced a few days ago that it will impose a ban on Telegram. Telegram is basically the Russian version of whatsapp. It is very popular, especially with Russian milbloggers and Russian military personnel. It has been a place where people can speak freely (to a degree) about Russia's military performance in the war and make criticisms about Russian military operations that actually result in changes in Russian war fighting that have benefited Russia's military. Russia is also planning on blocking whatsapp and funneling all social media messaging into a state controlled (and closely monitored) messaging app.

The big question is "why now"? Russia could have done this 2-3 years ago. The answer may be that Russia is on the brink of a financial meltdown and is going to respond by finally declaring war on Ukraine and implementing a full mobilization (i.e. draft).

Russia has been able to sustain its war effort due to three things: 1) Russia's oil and gas revenues; 2) China financing Russia's war effort and selling it electrical components for weapons as well as consumer goods free of sanctions; 3) Many loopholes in international sanctions, most notably the shadow fleet of oil tankers.

Due to improvements in sanctions and the very slow but steady attack on the shadow fleet of oil tankers as well as Ukraine attacks on Russian oil and gas infrastructure, Russia's oil revenues for February are on track to be half of its year over year revenues. 2025 oil revenues were down 34% y/y. Russia has sold off most of its foreign currency reserves to finance deficits and is now selling China yuan bonds to finance its deficits. Higher energy costs and Russia's currency basically becoming a yuan stable coin has resulted in spikes in food prices. There is even a viral video showing a Russian market selling single slices of bread.

So, the Russian central bank is now warning of an economic meltdown. The Russian central bank has maintained a modicum of independence because Russia's oligarchs rely on the central bank to keep Russia's economy afloat during the war.

Where all this comes together is that Russia may be planning on declaring war, implementing full mobilization and declaring martial law in a few months to avoid an economic collapse (and a possible collapse on the front lines as Ukraine has been able to stop Russia's winter offensive and is now launching counter attacks and regaining territory). Russia will need to completely control all communications in the country to crush any dissent. The central government will more than likely take complete control over the economy and ration food and other consumer goods to support a complete shift to supporting wartime military production. Russia desperately needs to boost production as it has burned through most of its military transport capabilities and has been seen using horses, bicycles and mopeds to launch assaults on the battlefield. Russia will also need a draft to replenish its losses on the battlefield. State control of the economy will allow Russia to direct those who are not enlisted to work at military contractors and the energy sector, decimating what is left of Russia's civilian economy.

The odds of this happening are very strong and there are probably only three ways that this won't happen. First is that Trump launches a war with Iran, resulting in oil prices doubling (at least). If this happens, Russia will not have any more revenue worries as its oil revenues will double. Second is if the Russian oligarchs effectively veto a move to mobilization to protect their assets. This could come as a coup against Putin or just the flexing of power to keep Putin from doing anything rash. Third, Russia agrees to a ceasefire to get sanctions relief and plays the long game, meaning retool and rebuild to restart the war in another 3-5 years.

Link:www.express.co.uk/news/world/2174439/r...

Link:www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1mjrgkk1m8o

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