I see the race as a toss-up, and you make some fairly reasonable points, but because it seems as though for you every single sign favors Harris, consider me at least mildly skeptical.
I see those results for over 65 in PA, too, but I don’t know if anyone has enough data to really be able to infer meaning from that. There’s not a really good benchmark for extrapolating info from these numbers (so much has changed in terms of Dem and Rep messaging about early and mail voting in the last several years), and you can imagine the kinds of habits and tendencies of over-65 voters in urban and rural areas. Among rural over-65, getting to the polls (even factoring in driving distance on average) and the prospect of waiting is less a deterrent than it is for urban. I don’t know how much that over-65 in-person election day will be Republican, but it should be substantially in their favor (I see a lot of premature and overconfident proclamations from Democrats and Republicans online about what the polling numbers and early vote numbers tell them, and I don’t have a lot of confidence).
I will agree that Harris is much more likely to have a substantially better ground game. We’ll find out if that will be enough for her in PA (especially), MI, WI, NV, etc. I don’t see her getting GA or NC.
Well, you will see how wrong you are. She will win this election, and it's not going to be all that close.
Sounds like he said exactly what people accused him of saying.
There’s no other way to hear it.
It's time to give up Hyena-nette, your girl is losing this race. Trump is going to trigger you for the next 4 years.
Accept your inevitable loss. Cope.
Better luck in 2028!
^ says the guy who has been nonstop crying on this thread for 4 years about libs and desperately hoping for revenge via trump. You don't have many years left yet you waste them worshipping a criminal POS. Get your bunghole ready.
We should set up an election night zoom call for the posters on this thread 😆 🤣 😂. It'll be about 6-7 people total, with Sally accounting for 20 different handles.
Wow......to see what El Runkin/Jorgon looks like.......
I'd be amused to see how old the other people I'm arguing with are - whether they're 18 year old college students bored in class, 30-50 year old people bored at their job, or retired.
Wow......to see what El Runkin/Jorgon looks like.......
I'd be amused to see how old the other people I'm arguing with are - whether they're 18 year old college students bored in class, 30-50 year old people bored at their job, or retired.
HALPERIN: I spoke to 1 Democratic and 2 Republican sources. Based on some data, they would be either surprised or shocked at this point if Harris won Wisconsin.
that this election is even close is a nightmare for the planet
Stephanie Grisham @OMGrisham In his 1st admin, Trump felt anyone who disagreed with him/was unwilling to carry out his orders to be treasonous. Believe him when he says he’ll go after his perceived enemies. I guarantee treason will be a lever of power he uses as retaliation, which is punishable by death. 4:53 PM · Nov 1, 2024 · 27.1K Views
Good. Charge Alvin Bragg and others with treason. Seek revenge on those who wronged you. Trump is retribution personified.
Doubling down on stupid. You set yourself up for endless ridicule.
Silly Willy with your 303-319 EV for Cackles. 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Why don’t you two wager on the outcome. You both are so sure. Cocksure, in fact.
I do not "wager." Betting is low class. Not sure why it's not enough for some of you that not only have I said Harris wins, EVEN IF TRUMP CHEATS THIS TIME. The only way she doesn't win is if she dies before election day or aliens from another planet come down here and make us all vote for Trump.
If I am wrong, I will be called stupid, ridiculed, etc., so it's not like I don't have anything to lose here. I'm not wrong though. She will win. It's over.
Doubling down on stupid. You set yourself up for endless ridicule.
Silly Willy with your 303-319 EV for Cackles. 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Why don’t you two wager on the outcome. You both are so sure. Cocksure, in fact.
I do not "wager." Betting is low class. Not sure why it's not enough for some of you that not only have I said Harris wins, EVEN IF TRUMP CHEATS THIS TIME. The only way she doesn't win is if she dies before election day or aliens from another planet come down here and make us all vote for Trump.
If I am wrong, I will be called stupid, ridiculed, etc., so it's not like I don't have anything to lose here. I'm not wrong though. She will win. It's over.
Doubling down on stupid. You set yourself up for endless ridicule.
Silly Willy with your 303-319 EV for Cackles. 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Why don’t you two wager on the outcome. You both are so sure. Cocksure, in fact.
I do not "wager." Betting is low class. Not sure why it's not enough for some of you that not only have I said Harris wins, EVEN IF TRUMP CHEATS THIS TIME, but she will win and it won't even be all that close. The only way she doesn't win is if she dies before election day or aliens from another planet come down here and make us all vote for Trump.
If I am wrong, I will be called stupid, ridiculed, etc., so it's not like I don't have anything to lose here. I'm not wrong though. She will win. It's over.
Just a quick poll for the Trumpettes on here. Which of the following best describes your reaction to Tucker Carlson's claim that he was literally, physically attacked by a actual demon while he lay sleeping in his bed?
1) Tucker Carlson is insane.
2) Tucker Carlson is lying.
3) Tucker Carlson probably was literally, physically attacked by an actual demon while he lay sleeping in his bed.
Why don’t you two wager on the outcome. You both are so sure. Cocksure, in fact.
Flagpole doesn't bet. Beneath him.
Well, that's not how I would put it. Betting is low class. There also has to be something in it for me, and betting money just doesn't do it. What if we bet $100...hell, $1,000 or $10,000. Do you understand how insignificant any of those dollar amounts are to me? So, what if I started betting millions of dollars? Well, first of all, that would be foolish, and secondly, what if I win? What if I win $2 million in a bet? So, it goes in the pile? I'm already rich. I don't need more money, so who cares?
So, for you Trumpers (and anyone else) who don't believe that The Keys to the White House have correctly called this race, what is it of the following things that make you so convinced that Trump is going to win?:
1) Early voting shows that women are dominating the vote in swing states...leading in all of them with a low of 50-48 in Nevada and then as much as a 12 point spread in PA (56-44).
2) In PA, seniors over age 65 are not flocking to early voting (PA has only released mail-in voting, not voting in person, but the other swing states have released both), but for those who are, those registered as Democrats are up 12 points on those registered as Republicans.
3) There is reportedly NO ground game for Republicans in any of the swing states. Trump asked Charlie Kirk to manage that, and he has no experience doing so, and Kirk has admitted it isn't going well.
4) Recent Gallup Poll says that voter enthusiasm for Kamala Harris is higher than it was for Obama in 2008.
5) Trump and his operatives are trying the same stuff they did in 2020...put out garbage Republican polling that shows that Trump is either winning or close, say that opponent is stupid, declare confidence of victory well in advance to prime the pump for calls of voter fraud, and NOW start lying about voter fraud. Trump just posted some garbage thing about catching Democrats in massive voter fraud in PA. Um...right. You don't complain about voter fraud if you're sure of victory.
On top of all of the above, you are convinced that all of the Republican registered voters are going to vote for Trump, when clearly many voted for Haley and many others have publicly stated that they are going to vote for Harris. You think that being a convicted felon doesn't matter to a defining percentage of the electorate. You dismiss the fact that Democrats have been greatly under represented in polling since The Dobbs Decision.
Ok. I really, really do not understand you all, but whatever.
Harris IS going to win this election, and it's not going to be especially close. It's over.
In terms of quantity, Early voting numbers for Democrats are far below where they were in 2020. They are about the same for Republicans as 2020. In Pennsylvania, the percentage of Democrats in the early voting declined from 69% in 2020 to 58% in 2024. Republicans share increased from 21% of the early vote to 31%. Women outnumber men in early voting pretty much every year, it does not seem to be any higher than in 2020. About 1/3 of Harris voters are more concerned with voting against Trump, not for Harris. Among Trump voters it is closer to 1/4 are voting against Harris, not for Trump. At the end of the day, nobody can state definitively one way or the other who is going to win.
We won’t know for sure until the votes are certified. If Trump wins the vote, I fully expect Democrats to attempt to block the certification with 14th amendment arguments or other nonsense, just as they did in 2000, 2004 and 2016. They will likely riot again in DC or other spots, just as they did in 2016.
A lot of nonsense in there.
Yes, early voting is down for Democrats compared to 2020, because in 2020 we were in a pandemic, and DEMOCRATS recognized it as a real threat and decided to mail in, or drop off, or vote masked up on a day that wouldn't be as crowded as Election Day.
Does it make you feel better to know that some voters are voting for Harris as a vote AGAINST Trump rather than they are excited to vote FOR Harris? Sounds like you've got yourself a little blankie there. It's a binary choice. Harris or Trump. The levels of excitement for voting for either candidate is different for every voter. In my case, I WAS excited to vote for Harris (I've already voted), and I was ALSO casting a vote AGAINST Trump. I would have voted for a bag of hammers over Trump. He's a criminal, and he's dangerous.
I see the race as a toss-up, and you make some fairly reasonable points, but because it seems as though for you every single sign favors Harris, consider me at least mildly skeptical.
I see those results for over 65 in PA, too, but I don’t know if anyone has enough data to really be able to infer meaning from that. There’s not a really good benchmark for extrapolating info from these numbers (so much has changed in terms of Dem and Rep messaging about early and mail voting in the last several years), and you can imagine the kinds of habits and tendencies of over-65 voters in urban and rural areas. Among rural over-65, getting to the polls (even factoring in driving distance on average) and the prospect of waiting is less a deterrent than it is for urban. I don’t know how much that over-65 in-person election day will be Republican, but it should be substantially in their favor (I see a lot of premature and overconfident proclamations from Democrats and Republicans online about what the polling numbers and early vote numbers tell them, and I don’t have a lot of confidence).
I will agree that Harris is much more likely to have a substantially better ground game. We’ll find out if that will be enough for her in PA (especially), MI, WI, NV, etc. I don’t see her getting GA or NC.
Anyone who tells you they KNOW who is going to win this election is an idiot.
You can soothe yourself with that thought after Harris wins by telling yourself that Flagpole didn't actually KNOW Harris would win. Sounds like you've got yourself a blankie!
Good morning - concerned about what the mental state of the posters in this thread will be after Election Day. The posters here have exhibited an unhealthy obsessions and celebrity worship of their respective candidates. Hate to say it, but I can definitely see the posters here committing self harm or harm to others when Harris or Trump loses.
This post will fall on deaf ears, but to all of you here, please consider how you will behave after your preferred candidate loses and check yourself into mental health facility ahead of time if necessary.
I agree. There are some real unstable posters here.
I see Ghost of Gary, Trollminator, Flagpole and Agip all being in suicide watch early Wednesday morning. They are all very invested in this election.
Suicide watch? Not for me, brother. First of all Harris will win. Second of all, if aliens from another planet come down here and make us all vote for Trump so that Trump wins (one of my only two ways Trump wins, the other being if Harris dies before election day), I will just be sad for our country and look forward to the day that Trump isn't in office anymore. A second Trump Presidency WOULD BE interesting. It's not something I was to see, but it would be interesting.
RFK Jr. with a powerful statement: “I asked God for 19 years to put me in a position where I could end the chronic disease epidemic and bring health back to our children, and in August, God sent me Donald Trump.”
Regarding the God thing, here's what Trump's Spiritual Advisor said would happen in 2020. Yeah, just because a person says God or Angels are coming in to help a political candidate, that doesn't make it so. Nonsense. Watch this sh!t. It's INSANE.
