Down goes the Dow

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

No. It doesn’t matter to me to bother with your request. Do your own research,

As I said, I have read the thread. Based on my research, your claim is frivolous.

Is that so.

“By the completion of this market cycle, I doubt that there will be much talk of the ‘cost’ of getting out too early. The 2000-2002 collapse wiped out the entire total return of the S&P 500 – in excess of Treasury bill returns – all the way back to May 1996. The 2007-2009 collapse wiped out the entire total return of the S&P 500 – in excess of Treasury bill returns – all the way back to June 1995. We correctly anticipated the extent of both collapses. Frankly, I expect that the completion of the current cycle will wipe out the entire total return of the S&P 500 – in excess of Treasury bills – all the way back to roughly October 1997. That outcome would not even require our most reliable measures of valuation to revisit their historical norms. If there is something in the financial markets to be particularly optimistic about, it is the prospect of opportunities that will evolve over the completion of the current market cycle. The strongest expected market return/risk classifications we identify emerge when a material retreat in valuations is joined by an improvement in market action.”

—John Hussman, Semi-Annual Report

"No, it won't."

--Seattle prattle, Semi-Annual Retort

at least my post is my own. I'm not sure what yours is in reference to, or supposed to prove....

“What you don’t learn from market history, you learn through experience, the hard way.”

—Igy, Semi-Annual Report

“Whereas the theorist thinks return and risk are two separate things, albeit correlated, the value investor thinks of high risk and low prospective return as nothing but two sides of the same coin, both stemming primarily from high prices. Thus, awareness of the relationship between price and value – whether for a single security or an entire market – is an essential component of dealing successfully with risk.

“Risk arises when markets go so high that prices imply losses rather than the potential rewards they should. In bull markets – usually when things have been going well for a while – people tend to say ‘Risk is my friend. The more risk I take, the greater my return will be. I’d like more risk, please.’ The truth is, risk tolerance is antithetical to successful investing. When people aren’t afraid of risk, they’ll accept risk without being compensated for doing so, and risk compensation will disappear.”

Howard Marks, “The Most Important Thing”

“Investing is an activity in which consumption today is foregone in an attempt to allow greater consumption at a later date. ‘Risk’ is the possibility that this objective won’t be attained.”

Warren Buffett, 2017 Bershire Hathaway Annual Report

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Is that so.

“By the completion of this market cycle, ...blah, blah, blah.

—John Hussman, Semi-Annual Report

I think you mistakenly made this rely to me as it has nothing to do with either of my previous posts.

Is that so.

“Two features of the initial break from speculative bubbles are worth noting. First, the collapse of major bubbles is often preceded by the collapse of smaller bubbles representing “fringe” speculations. Those early wipeouts are canaries in the coalmine. For example, in July 2000, the Wall Street Journal ran an article titled (in the print version) “What were we THINKING?” – reflecting on the “arrogance, greed, and optimism” that had already been followed by the collapse of dot-com stocks. My favorite line: “Now we know better. Why didn’t they see it coming?” Unfortunately, that article was published at a point where the Nasdaq still had an 80% loss (not a typo) ahead of it.

Similarly, in July 2007, two Bear Stearns hedge funds heavily invested in sub-prime loans suddenly became nearly worthless. Yet that was nearly three months before the S&P 500 peaked in October, followed by a collapse that would take it down by more than 55%.”

John Hussman, Market Commentary, March 2018

Lurker wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Is that so.

“By the completion of this market cycle, ...blah, blah, blah.

—John Hussman, Semi-Annual Report

I think you mistakenly made this rely to me as it has nothing to do with either of my previous posts.

Igy often makes claims which are unfounded. Then when he gets called out for it, he tries to deflect the blame onto his accuser. It’s an important part of his trolling back of tricks.

Z. wrote:

Lurker wrote:

I think you mistakenly made this rely to me as it has nothing to do with either of my previous posts.

Igy often makes claims which are unfounded. Then when he gets called out for it, he tries to deflect the blame onto his accuser. It’s an important part of his trolling back of tricks.

Thanks for the textbook example of psychological projection.

Sez someone wrote:

Z. wrote:

Igy often makes claims which are unfounded. Then when he gets called out for it, he tries to deflect the blame onto his accuser. It’s an important part of his trolling back of tricks.

Thanks for the textbook example of psychological projection.

That’s Igy for you. He’s certifiable.

? you are a serial harrasser...and a certified tool...

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

? you are a serial harrasser...and a certified tool...

A serial yet ineffective harrasser.

i have noticed that, too. His recent posts don't pertain to the topic being discussed. They are just obtuse quotations.

Worthless.

seattle prattle wrote:

i have noticed that, too. His recent posts don't pertain to the topic being discussed. They are just obtuse quotations.

Worthless.

No, they illustrate how wrong and pointless your view is.

But you do it to other posters, as pointed out by Lurker:

Lurker wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Is that so.

“By the completion of this market cycle, ...blah, blah, blah.

—John Hussman, Semi-Annual Report

I think you mistakenly made this rely to me as it has nothing to do with either of my previous posts.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

i have noticed that, too. His recent posts don't pertain to the topic being discussed. They are just obtuse quotations.

Worthless.

No, they illustrate how wrong and pointless your view is.

You quoted John Hussman. Taking a position contrary to his is generally a winning strategy. At the very least, they have nothing to do with the posts to which you were responding.

seattle prattle wrote:

But you do it to other posters, as pointed out by Lurker:

Lurker wrote:

I think you mistakenly made this rely to me as it has nothing to do with either of my previous posts.

Not really. You think you can trade around the most overvalued market ever. You believe there is a signal that allows you to avoid principal loss. The riskiest market ever encouages your foolish beliefs. Pretty simple. I try to pont out but you just can’t see beyond what is in front of your nose.

Epic fail wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

No, they illustrate how wrong and pointless your view is.

You quoted John Hussman. Taking a position contrary to his is generally a winning strategy. At the very least, they have nothing to do with the posts to which you were responding.

OK. We’ll see how that works out for you. I suppose when it happens you will be silent. A victim of your hubris.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

But you do it to other posters, as pointed out by Lurker:

Not really. You think you can trade around the most overvalued market ever. You believe there is a signal that allows you to avoid principal loss. The riskiest market ever encouages your foolish beliefs. Pretty simple. I try to pont out but you just can’t see beyond what is in front of your nose.

Your method is neither the only rational response nor necessarily the best.

Is it not entirely possible that the market, even if overvalued, may continue to trade in an overvalued state for many years or indefinitely? Is it not possible that the model you have constructed, or others have constructed but you subscribe to, may be leaving out certain relevant factors? Is it not possible that after years of misjudging the direction of the market, one might abandon or significantly revise their strategy?