Official 2018 IAAF World Indoor Day 3 Live Discussion Thread

All we are saying wrote:

Hardloper wrote:

Can't believe anyone denies that Dibaba is a doper, how much proof do you need?

Nobody has denied that Dibaba is a doper. What people are denying is the idea that Muir is obviously clean.

The problem with the case for Muir is simple. Even without the syringes, there are many reasons to be suspicious of Dibaba. Most of those reasons apply to Muir. Yet for many, these reasons don't seem worrisome.

The sad truth is that everyone who runs that fast is suspicious. Everyone. To think otherwise is naïve.

100m wrote:

People are, for the most part, not denying Dibaba's extremely high suspicion (almost certainty) of being a doper. However, we should apply the same standards to Muir, about whom we should at least be nearly as suspicious based on performance characteristics.

False equivalency. I used to like Dibaba... then her training group got busted with piles of EPO. Until Muir's coach also gets busted hoarding mounds of EPO then it is not even a remotely comparable situation.

I don't care about Muir either way but I think those tearing down Muir (whose PB is 5+ seconds slower than Dibaba) with zero evidence are probably Dibaba fans either denying or 'defending' her cheating.

Sifan Hassan showed horrible behavior on the medal podium today.

Sifan Hassan also has a history of an Atypical = "suspicious" ABP blood test result.

https://imgur.com/a/vnyIC#XNFo4IL

Total number of female runners from the USA and Scotland on the leaked Atypical ABP list:

0.00

This is not a big surprise because Sifan Hassan is managed by Jos Hermens and coached by Coach Alberto Salazar.

Coach Alberto has had many episodes of horrible behavior at previous US Indoor Championships.

Hardloper wrote:

I used to like Dibaba... then her training group got busted with piles of EPO. Until Muir's coach also gets busted hoarding mounds of EPO then it is not even a remotely comparable situation.

You do realizes that many of us were suspicious of Dibaba even before the bust, don't you? My suspicion was race-based -- I thought her races were so fast they were suspicious. That is why I'm suspicious of Muir. It's not because I'm a closet Dibaba apologist. It's because Muir's record looks suspicious to me.

Obviously, you disagree. In the jargon of Bayesian statistics, you have a very different prior about doping than the people you disagree with. You think fast times are not suspicious, we think they are.

Sifan Hassan is a sore loser wrote:

Sifan Hassan showed horrible behavior on the medal podium today.

I missed that. What did she do? Link?

Priors, man, it's all about the priors wrote:

Hardloper wrote:

I used to like Dibaba... then her training group got busted with piles of EPO. Until Muir's coach also gets busted hoarding mounds of EPO then it is not even a remotely comparable situation.

You do realizes that many of us were suspicious of Dibaba even before the bust, don't you? My suspicion was race-based -- I thought her races were so fast they were suspicious. That is why I'm suspicious of Muir. It's not because I'm a closet Dibaba apologist. It's because Muir's record looks suspicious to me.

Obviously, you disagree. In the jargon of Bayesian statistics, you have a very different prior about doping than the people you disagree with. You think fast times are not suspicious, we think they are.

There's still a world of a difference between 3:50 and 3:55 but whatever. Bottom line is Muir, Hassan, Obiri etc deserve at least consideration that they could be clean and should not assumed to be dirty until they are undeniably linked to doping

Oh, the irony of yanks (rightly or wrongly) going off on Genzebe Dibaba over doping whist cheering for Ajee "tainted beef" Wilson.

Props to Shelby Houlihan, the first unsuspicious finisher in the W1500.

That said, if Muir is juicing, she sure isn't sharing it with her fellow Scotswoman, Eilish McColgan.

Shelby is running too fast.

She is probably a doper.

Everyone is a doper at LetsRun.com

How many DQs have been given out?

Hardloper wrote:

I used to like Dibaba... then her training group got busted with piles of EPO. Until Muir's coach also gets busted hoarding mounds of EPO then it is not even a remotely comparable situation....

There's still a world of a difference between 3:50 and 3:55 but whatever. Bottom line is Muir, Hassan, Obiri etc deserve at least consideration that they could be clean and should not assumed to be dirty until they are undeniably linked to doping

I agree with most of what you say. But you seem very certain that you can tell who is, and who is not, doping. I am much less sure of my judgments. Instead of certainty, I think in terms of likelihood or probability based on what I know.

I find this a natural way to think about doping. I look at the various facts about a runner -- her times, her progression, who she hangs without, her coach, her country, and so on -- and decide whether they make me more or less suspicious. When I learn something new, I update my assessment based on what I have learned.

Thinking this way allows me to be a fan without feeling like either a cynic or a naïf. Like a cynic, know there's a good chance any runner is a doper, like a naïf, I know there's a chance any runner is clean.

Thinking this way also allows me to follow Radcliffe's law: You only know for sure about yourself.

CDA wrote:

Subway Surfers Addiction wrote:

Dibaba has supranaturally muscular legs for an Ethiopian. When people have hyper musculature, in T & F they are always doping. Add to the fact she is faster than the Chinese and the Eastern Bloc runners is evidence enough.

This is quite possibly the most stupid post I have read all day. You do you realize erythropoietin merely stimulates the growth of red blood cells, delaying muscle fatigue? It’s not like it is designed to increase muscle mass like anabolic steroids. How many busted woman distance runners do you know in the EPO era were overly muscular?

There should be a running related fact test before idiots like you are allowed to post. In June 2016, thanks to a tipoff from David Torrence, Spanish police after watching the training group of Jama Aden, which included Genzebe Dibaba and Ayanleh Souleiman (and mysteriously Mo might have been nearby), raided the motel complex and found a truckload of EPO and steroids. If I can recall correctly the police also found Androgel and HGH. If you read what I posted, I never said epo but obviously she is on that as well. Most dopers do a combo of epo/blood transfusions + a strength/muscle recovery drug. Sort it out.

lol... can you actually cite something besides speculation? As far as I have seen, no official police report was ever released about what they did or did not find in the hotel. The widely reported tip by David Torrence is probably correct (I believe Aden admitted to EPO being in one room), but we can’t be for certain of what drugs they did or did not find unless you can provide a line to an official report.

I did mistakenly use the Turkish woman as a joke to say that EPO doesn’t create muscle (she, ironically, was busted for a known muscular strength enhancer), but that is besides the point that I was making, which was taking “hypermusculature” to be an automatic flag of doping is a fallacious assertion. It’s just as stupid as the achne flag assertion. Dibaba is muscular, but she has a much more serious lifting regimen than the other women it would seem by looking at her Twitter and other media revelations.

Rule 142.4c

(c) an athlete failed to compete honestly with bona fide effort.

I agree, but not completely wrote:

Instead of certainty, I think in terms of likelihood or probability based on what I know.

I find this a natural way to think about doping. I look at the various facts about a runner -- her times, her progression, who she hangs without, her coach, her country, and so on -- and decide whether they make me more or less suspicious. When I learn something new, I update my assessment based on what I have learned.

Good points. Unfortunately one needs to start with the observations that

a) roughly half of the championship athletes are admitted cheats (the real number being likely higher),

b) the better one is, the more likely one dopes.

a+b => most medal winners are cheats. On top of that, the 1500w has a particularly bad history, and now we saw two ladies dominating the field.

It thus is a lot more likely that these two are dopers than not.

CDA wrote:

I did mistakenly use the Turkish woman as a joke to say that EPO doesn’t create muscle (she, ironically, was busted for a known muscular strength enhancer), but that is besides the point that I was making, which was taking “hypermusculature” to be an automatic flag of doping is a fallacious assertion. It’s just as stupid as the achne flag assertion. Dibaba is muscular, but she has a much more serious lifting regimen than the other women it would seem by looking at her Twitter and other media revelations.

Of course O2-vector doping doesn't create muscle, but as Subway pointed out a popular PED combination with women is EPO or blood doping in conjunction with androgens and/or HGH, i.e., O2-vector for aerobic capacity improvement & androgens for strength & recovery. But androgens alone seem to have a profound effect on women's mid-d performance. East German doping records reveal improvements for the 800 m: 5–10 sec and 1500 m: 7–10 sec after 4 yrs of anabolic steroid usage:

Once again white athletes should born again to beat eat african. Genzebe is real beast . She relegete every one to junior level. All these junk post about EPO is nonsense!!!!!!. no body say nothing when paul run marthon 2.15 . Come on people you can not help it we ethiopians are natural born to run abebe bikila, mamo welde, miruts yifter, the great haile, king kenenisa, babyface destroyer tirunesh, the untouchable meseret and on, and on ....

Same as it ever was... wrote:

[quote]CDA wrote:

But androgens alone seem to have a profound effect on women's mid-d performance. East German doping records reveal improvements for the 800 m: 5–10 sec

Which curiously enough is the difference that Semenya slowed down when he/she was put on feminizing hormone treatments (i.e. going the "other way" from androgenizing treatment by the E Germans).

Dishing the dirt wrote:

Sifan Hassan is a sore loser wrote:

Sifan Hassan showed horrible behavior on the medal podium today.

I missed that. What did she do? Link?

She was dignified, and didn't do anything unusual.

Same as it ever was... wrote:

[quote]CDA wrote:

But androgens alone seem to have a profound effect on women's mid-d performance. East German doping records reveal improvements for the 800 m: 5–10 sec

YMMV wrote:

Which curiously enough is the difference that Semenya slowed down when he/she was put on feminizing hormone treatments (i.e. going the "other way" from androgenizing treatment by the E Germans).

Yet the blame game continues.