NEW Atlantic Region XC *2009* thread

Men:

Suny G (Believe)Oh I do. Pack running is so cliche...but pack running. And before UofR guys start talking, I mean fast pack running.

Cortland-They could still win nationals, I just wanted to pick Geneseo ftw.

SLU-5 reasons: Ramsey, Kip, Mwenda, Fox, and Malcomb. Three guys out front that can pop big races, followed by two solid day-in day-out runners. Plenty of back up is there if needed.

NYU-Could be 3rd, but I don't know much about the guys on the team. If I remember correctly lots of provo times for some returners?

RIT-this prediction based off of 3k prs. Seriously, I think Hardbarger runs well, Burdick controls his quick starts and the return of a Lowe to the Atlantic Region will be awesome. Good enough to beat a watered down Plattsburgh and an up and coming Fredonia.

Women:

SLU

Cortland

Geneseo

NYU

Plattsburgh

does any body know when or if there will an atlantic regional preview? What is going to happen now that Mark krueger will not be running it? If you find out the new site post the link.

Good predictions from Mr. Jones (I heard you'll never catch him?)

I think NYU is a huge dark horse coming into the season, same as last year. If I remember correctly they weren't even ranked in the top 30 nationally until after the Oberlin Rumble? Can kibitzer confirm this? (yes I am assuming he's an nyu alum)

I also think that it's not outside the scope of possibility for the atlantic region to have its best year ever on the national scene, with potentially 4 teams in the top 10.

Men:

1-Cortland (DuBois and O'Brien are such a fantastic 1-2, and that's assuming Wager isn't the 2. Also, this will finally be the year Greenlaw gets it together at Nats)

2-NYU (As mikejones pointed out, fantastic track seasons from several guys, and Maher will make a serious name for himself)

3-Geneseo (Lee Berube is ready to run with the big boys. He will.)

4-SLU (I like their depth, but Ramsey, Kipligat, and Mwenda have all struggled with injuries. If one of those three goes down, they have no chance of competing with the top dogs in the region. If they stay healthy, they could be a serious force)

5-RIT (I have to take experience over Fredonia's youth. Hardbarger, a track specialist though he is, is capable of leading this team back to NCAAs. Let's not forget that they also qualified for nats 3 years ago...many of the top dogs on this year's team were around)

Individuals:

1-Kosgei - no brainer

2-Dubois - another no brainer

3-Heymann - I like his 14:2x and 30:1x creds from outdoor

4-Maher - poised for a huge breakout season

5-Mwenda - has scary potential

6-O'Brien - can't argue against his toughness, and that the red mules will need him to come through big tim if they have any shot at a repeat. he'll get it done

7-Chichester - will run well when it counts, vicious kick as well

8-Ramsey - tough to place, depends on how his summer/injury recovery has been

9-L. Berube - 9:0x creds from high school finally shine through

10-Hardbarger - a definite stud, tough, and with another fantastic kick

Women:

1-SLU - can't bet against Pavlus/Hulton/Ludington, though they'd be well served if they found some depth help

2-Suny C - losing Palin won't change much, there's a culture of winning surrounding both men's and women's programs, and that's hard to supplant

3-Suny G - another high quality girls squad, which, despite its graduation losses, will rebound

4-TCNJ - kind of a hopeful pick on my part, I was just so impressed with their outdoor season that I hope something comes to fruition for them in cross

5-Suny P - another culture of winning (only 2 years removed from ncaa runner's up). look also for Schaffhouser to have a monster season

Can't do ladies individuals; I'll pick Schaffhouser over Pavlus, but 3 SLU women in the top 5

mace windu wrote:

If I remember correctly they weren't even ranked in the top 30 nationally until after the Oberlin Rumble? Can kibitzer confirm this? (yes I am assuming he's an nyu alum)

Nope, I went to school uptown but, as a true NYC frontrunner, am a big fan of any team that looks like a winner (which my alma mater doesn't).

However, I went to the NYU website (easier to navigate than some, once you get to their Sports page) and it looks like the Violets were ranked #26 going into Oberlin last year, then #10 in the next poll (after winning the meet--49 points, in a 30-team race!--supplying the individual champ, and beating seven teams ranked ahead of them).

So your point is well taken. They had graduated a lot from the previous year, and Oberlin may have been the first meet where they showed all their cards. Hmmmm...

Men:

NYU- Maher and Turlip are the best 1-2 in the region. If Lee and Shwelm aren't both in the top ten they are a lock for top fifteen. Whomever their fifth man is will determine whether or not they can beat Cortland and SLU.

Cortland- I think we can all agree, 2nd place is Debois' to lose. Wager and Greenlaw are good enough but I'm concerned they're a little too trackish. O'Brien doesn't impress me when it comes to XC.

SLU- Being pro-Ramsey is not in vogue on this board but I'm proud to be in the minority on the issue. I feel similarly about Jeremy Mwenda. I really liked what MikeJones had to say about Malcomb and Fox. If Kiplagat is healthy enough to be their second runner They could make some serious noise at nationals.

Geneseo- I'm a big Chichester fan. He runs brave and tough. They have so much potential (O'Conner, Juda, the Breubes, Streb, Ruebens)I can't believe I'm picking them for fourth. I could see them being second on a good day.

Fredonia- By process of elimination. I think Plattsburgh got hot last year (not lucky but I think they ran outside of their ability due to momentum) Williams has spent the summer training with Stenuf and I think he can be in the Heyman stratosphere this year.

1. Kosgei

2. Debois

3. Maher

4. Ramsey

5. Heyman

6. Chichester

7. Williams

8. Turlip

9. Greenlaw

10. Mwenda

Isn't Ruebens done for Geneseo? That is what I have heard...

what about Bocchino from TCNJ individually? he made it to nats last year as a soph. and he did run 14:4x in the 5k last spring too.

Most of yall dont know cortlands dark horse runner.

Williams is not training with Stenuf...unless Williams moved to Florida. Jerry Greenlaw is the opposite of "trackish"

That is all

I think everyone is assuming the region will get 5 teams to Nats this year which I believe is a mistake.

I believe the top 4 are in this order.

1)Cortland- They will be tough again, Podium at Nats (maybe a W if things go their way but NC and Williams are REAL good).

SLU/Geneseo- This will be a battle, I think SLU could be very good this year. Both teams should fight for top 10 at nats, one will get it the other will be right outside.

NYU- I have them battling for the 4 or 5 spot but am putting them 4th due to coaching, tradition, and they usually have good recruits. They will pull something together by November and be top 20 at Nats.

50 Depending on who gets this spot will determine if the region gets 5. If it is Fredonia or RIT I think the region gets 4...before you start hating hear me out. Plattsburgh, NYU, and TCNJ will all go to big meets this year and give themselves a chance to prove themselves. Unless Fredonia's schedule has changed they will race SUNYAC and empire 8 teams all year...this goes for RIT as well. I think whoever gets the 5 spot is good enough for Nats but the selection board will see differently. Lets hope the aforementioned teams will get some cred early in the season.

Anyway...my perdiction.

5) Plattsburgh- Heymann helps a lot and they go to some big meets this year, that hopefully will prepare them.

6) Ithaca

7)RIT

8)TCNJ

9)Fredonia

fredonia is going to penn state and oberlin this year.

just checked out there schedule on their website. rit, however looks to not have changed their schedule much.

actually wrote:

fredonia is going to penn state and oberlin this year.

just checked out there schedule on their website. rit, however looks to not have changed their schedule much.

The SUNY tradition might also help Fredonia if they get into the 5th spot this year. I'm still of the opinion that the same tradition was a large factor in Plattsburgh making it last year.

Trout School wrote:

The SUNY tradition might also help Fredonia if they get into the 5th spot this year. I'm still of the opinion that the same tradition was a large factor in Plattsburgh making it last year.

That must be why Cortland's women's team didn't get invited in 2007 (even though they had beaten several out of region teams that did get in). Guess their 7 NC's just weren't enough tradition.

Predictions:

Men:

1. Cortland - Still the team to beat at NC's.

2. NYU - Look at what they have returning and their history of developing their runners. Top 10 @ NC's.

3. SLU - Too many of their runners are too inconsistent to beat NYU; half their guys will have an off day at regionals. Possibly top 10 at NC's.

4. Geneseo - Same theme as every year. Lots of talent, but not enough dedication and they are all poorly coached. Top 20 at NC's.

5. Fredonia/TCNJ/Plattsburgh/ or RIT (if all the rumors are true) - Heymann gives Plat. a significant advantage (although Williams is probably going to impress this year). None of these teams is deep enough to overcome an injury to their top 5, and in the end, this is definitely going to come down to how the 3-5 men perform @ regionals. Agree with one of the previous posters that out-of-region performances are going to determine if the 5 team gets to go. I say it's 50/50. If 5 gets in, they'll beat somebody. Considering that Platt. only lost 1 of their top 7, I'm guessing it'll be them.

Women:

1. Cortland - Top AR team @ NC's last year. Deepest team in the field, so an injury probably won't derail their season. Top 10 @ NC's.

2. SLU - One of the best top 3's in the country, so if they find some help, they could win. Either way, no depth, and how many teams go all season w/o an injury? Top 10 at NC's.

3. Geneseo - Tons of talent, but it never seems to improve much from year to year. Top 18 @ NC's.

4. Plattsburgh - Don't really lose much from last year, and Lynch has proven that he can develop the women. Top 25 @ NC's.

5. TCNJ - Seem to be well coached. Will probably have some decent new talent. None of the rest of the teams in the region are any good (although NYU will probably be signifantly improved). If they get in, they'll beat at least 3.

Individuals:

1. Who cares? Half the people will be saving it for NC's.

^you're picking geneseo to get top 20 at nats....after they got 8th last year and return 6/7 from that team, not including a sub-15:00 5k guy?

Fail wrote:

That must be why Cortland's women's team didn't get invited in 2007 (even though they had beaten several out of region teams that did get in). Guess their 7 NC's just weren't enough tradition.

Not to mention Fredonia's women getting snubbed in '06. If anything tradition would be working against the fredonia men should they get 5th.

bump

Hump

sounds like a problem for the women.

Predictions:

Men:

1 - Geneseo. Return 6 guys from the 8th place team at Nats, which didn't include O'Connor (sub-15:00 indoor 5k), Gabler (sub-4:20 miler) or Haskell (9:20ish steeple). Only problem I can see is a lack of consistency from time to time. However, they have the talent to have nearly 10 guys sub-26:00 on any given day, which overrides the occasional inconsistency.

2 - Cortland. Very close to Geneseo, and very talented. 2 main reasons I picked Geneseo over them. 1) I didn't like what happened to them in outdoor track. They straight up did not show for outdoor SUNYACS, and it wasn't just an off day. If they continue to have this team disfunction and supposed disconnect with their coach, then that will certainly hurt them. 2) I'm interested to see how O'Brien does. He's an absolute stud in the steeple, but hasn't shown that same talent in any other event, track or XC. I'm not trying to rag on him, I'm just saying he's an unknown. His steeple time indicates he could probably run well under 25:00. If he does that, Cortland could edge past Geneseo.

3 - NYU. Always well coach and talented. Maher could be an animal this year. Not far behind Geneseo or Cortland for sure.

4 - SLU. Tremendously talented, somewhat inconsistent, not terribly deep. That top 5 is scary with potential. If they can get all their horses running on the same day, they won't be easy for anyone to beat. However, an off day by 1 or 2 guys could be disastrous for them, which is why they get the 4th spot.

5 - I like RIT if they can get their co-op guys running like they were. If that's not the case, I like Plattsburgh with Heymann and Yernye as one of the best 1-2's in the region.

Indiv:

1 - Kosgei

2 - Dubois

3 - Heymann

4 - Maher

5 - O'Brien

6 - Ramsey

7 - L. Berube (heard he was anemic last year? any truth to this? If so, 25:27 ain't bad)

8 - Chichester

9 - Mwenda (scary potential)

10 - O'Connor

11- Yernye

12 - Williams

Women:

don't know shit.