I don't have time to read through this thread, but I am pretty sure what I am saying has been said many times. "A sub-13 with at a 52x last lap and 12x last 100m championship race would be won by Cole 99% of the time in history no matter who is in the race." You could have put Geb, KB, Farah, Cheptegei, Kiplimo and a 'peak' Jacob in that race and results most likely would have been the same. The only reason I am not saying 100% for sure Cole could have won any race is because of the was the '07 Osaka race with Lagat and El 'G, both of those athletes could have matched Cole in a foot race to the finish line. No disrespect to Jacob, but like Farah's races, those championship races were not always as impressive in terms of overall quality of the race.
Long story short, Jakob and no other runner is history anyone say would have beat Hocker last week.
Some coach, you can’t understand that there are other types of championship races than ones that end in a 400m kick. You can’t even spell one of the all time best runner’s name correctly
Concession? Please. The only concession here was you spending 14 minutes workshopping a “dreams” zinger that still landed flat.
If you think laying out Florence’s 7:46/5:02 vs. Tokyo’s 7:52/5:06 isn’t a “path to victory,” that’s on you. Jakob’s already shown the exact scenario, you are just conceding that you don't care.
It's weird that you have such a vivid imagination about how I spend my time, yet you can't imagine exactly how Jakob would have won in Tokyo.
Florence doesn't apply because Jakob didn't lead that race. Do you really think that leading is "the exact scenario" as drafting? Or are you suggesting that Jakob would have done what he did in Florence, which is wait until the final homestretch to try to kick to victory? Good luck with that strategy against Hocker!
You clearly haven’t watched Florence 2021. Jakob was in worse form than 2024, received no drafting from 2600m–3400m, and then ran every bend wide from 3400m–5000m. Any drafting “benefit” was likely canceled out by the extra 20–30 meters he ran. The stadium was far less enclosed than Tokyo, Paris, or Budapest, so aerodynamic effects would be an even smaller effect than you think. Arguably, that makes his effort more impressive than Hocker’s win, not less. And Jakob’s not just Florence: Eugene 2023, he led the last 1400m in a 7:23.63 3000m, closing 4:55 for the final 2k and 54 for the last lap, one day after a 3:43.73 mile which is far more demanding than a 12:48 5k. London 2019: he led from 600m out, ran wide bends, and finished 13:02 with splits almost identical to Hocker’s Tokyo finish, only 1 second slower on the last lap, while being 7 years younger. So no, “drafting” isn’t some magic barrier. Jakob’s front-running chops are proven across multiple races, multiple distances, and multiple conditions.
If you feel personally attacked, that’s on you. The discussion isn’t about anyone’s free time; it’s about what Jakob can actually do on the track.
This post was edited 3 minutes after it was posted.
Hocker only beats Jakob if the race is a 4600m jog and a 400m race at the bell, and since Jakob is the fastest man in history over 1500, 1600, 2000, 3000, and 3200, that's unlikely to happen when peak Jakob is in the race.
You clearly haven’t watched Florence 2021. Jakob was in worse form than 2024, received no drafting from 2600m–3400m, and then ran every bend wide from 3400m–5000m. Any drafting “benefit” was likely canceled out by the extra 20–30 meters he ran. The stadium was far less enclosed than Tokyo, Paris, or Budapest, so aerodynamic effects would be an even smaller effect than you think. Arguably, that makes his effort more impressive than Hocker’s win, not less. And Jakob’s not just Florence: Eugene 2023, he led the last 1400m in a 7:23.63 3000m, closing 4:55 for the final 2k and 54 for the last lap, one day after a 3:43.73 mile which is far more demanding than a 12:48 5k. London 2019: he led from 600m out, ran wide bends, and finished 13:02 with splits almost identical to Hocker’s Tokyo finish, only 1 second slower on the last lap, while being 7 years younger. So no, “drafting” isn’t some magic barrier. Jakob’s front-running chops are proven across multiple races, multiple distances, and multiple conditions.
If you feel personally attacked, that’s on you. The discussion isn’t about anyone’s free time; it’s about what Jakob can actually do on the track.
All this talk about past races and yet you still no plan for how peak Jakob would have won in Tokyo.
Hocker only beats Jakob if the race is a 4600m jog and a 400m race at the bell, and since Jakob is the fastest man in history over 1500, 1600, 2000, 3000, and 3200, that's unlikely to happen when peak Jakob is in the race.
The pace for the first 4600 meters was faster than any world or Olympic 5000 Jakob Ingebrigtsen has won.
McRunnin, I honestly have lost a lot of respect for you. Normally your post are intelligent and insightful, but in this thread they are just downright stupid. Snowflakes has given examples of how Jakob could win several times and yet you keep claiming that he hasn’t. Maybe you should go back and read the entire thread slowly. No disrespect.
Hocker only beats Jakob if the race is a 4600m jog and a 400m race at the bell, and since Jakob is the fastest man in history over 1500, 1600, 2000, 3000, and 3200, that's unlikely to happen when peak Jakob is in the race.
The pace for the first 4600 meters was faster than any world or Olympic 5000 Jakob Ingebrigtsen has won.
And Jakob in the worst shape of his life finished four seconds behind Hocker in the best shape of his life.
Hocker only beats Jakob if the race is a 4600m jog and a 400m race at the bell, and since Jakob is the fastest man in history over 1500, 1600, 2000, 3000, and 3200, that's unlikely to happen when peak Jakob is in the race.
The pace for the first 4600 meters was faster than any world or Olympic 5000 Jakob Ingebrigtsen has won.
Not ingebrigtsen’s fault though. He has also shown he can close as fast when the pace is the same. Hocker gets full credit for winning in Tokyo but Jakob at full fitness beats him. Two things can be true.
Hocker only beats Jakob if the race is a 4600m jog and a 400m race at the bell, and since Jakob is the fastest man in history over 1500, 1600, 2000, 3000, and 3200, that's unlikely to happen when peak Jakob is in the race.
The pace for the first 4600 meters was faster than any world or Olympic 5000 Jakob Ingebrigtsen has won.
Last 2k was almost 10s faster for JI. They were different races. Cole beats 2022 JI clearly but 2023 and 2024 I’m not sure either way. Cole in his last 2 5000m races has had a tendency to be slow to react until 400m to go and gets gapped. Hopefully they are both healthy in 2 and 3 years from now.
McRunnin, I honestly have lost a lot of respect for you. Normally your post are intelligent and insightful, but in this thread they are just downright stupid. Snowflakes has given examples of how Jakob could win several times and yet you keep claiming that he hasn’t. Maybe you should go back and read the entire thread slowly. No disrespect.
Coach Stahl
Thanks for your honest feedback and for your kind words about my posting history. Respectfully, those examples snowflakes gave don't sway me. The contexts are too different in my opinion.
London 2019: Beyond the fact that it wasn't a championship race, snowflakes is wrong in saying Jakob led from 600m out. Jakob took the lead with less than 600m to go and held it for less than 400m. Most importantly, he lost that race.
Florence 2021: It wasn't a championship race, and Jakob didn't take the lead until the final homestretch. I don't see how that's going to work against Hocker.
Eugene 2023: That wasn't even a 5k; it was a 3k with pacers and wavelight. I don't see how such a race is applicable to a championship 5k.
All I'm asking is for snowflakes to walk us through in detail how 2024 Jakob would have won the 5k in Tokyo in the way that race was run. If the belief is that 2024 Jakob had multiple ways he could have won, then it shouldn't be difficult to pick just one and take us through it. I don't think that's too much to ask.
I'm not even asking for a breakdown of the entire 5k. I'm just asking for snowflakes to take us through the last 5 laps in Tokyo as envisioned in this alternative scenario. Fisher comes through 3k in 7:51 with the rest of the contenders in 7:52-7:53. How does 2024 Jakob win from that point on?
You clearly haven’t watched Florence 2021. Jakob was in worse form than 2024, received no drafting from 2600m–3400m, and then ran every bend wide from 3400m–5000m. Any drafting “benefit” was likely canceled out by the extra 20–30 meters he ran. The stadium was far less enclosed than Tokyo, Paris, or Budapest, so aerodynamic effects would be an even smaller effect than you think. Arguably, that makes his effort more impressive than Hocker’s win, not less. And Jakob’s not just Florence: Eugene 2023, he led the last 1400m in a 7:23.63 3000m, closing 4:55 for the final 2k and 54 for the last lap, one day after a 3:43.73 mile which is far more demanding than a 12:48 5k. London 2019: he led from 600m out, ran wide bends, and finished 13:02 with splits almost identical to Hocker’s Tokyo finish, only 1 second slower on the last lap, while being 7 years younger. So no, “drafting” isn’t some magic barrier. Jakob’s front-running chops are proven across multiple races, multiple distances, and multiple conditions.
If you feel personally attacked, that’s on you. The discussion isn’t about anyone’s free time; it’s about what Jakob can actually do on the track.
All this talk about past races and yet you still no plan for how peak Jakob would have won in Tokyo.
It’s ok. I don’t need to convince you. Hopefully everyone else in this thread can read it.
McRunnin, I honestly have lost a lot of respect for you. Normally your post are intelligent and insightful, but in this thread they are just downright stupid. Snowflakes has given examples of how Jakob could win several times and yet you keep claiming that he hasn’t. Maybe you should go back and read the entire thread slowly. No disrespect.
Coach Stahl
Thanks for your honest feedback and for your kind words about my posting history. Respectfully, those examples snowflakes gave don't sway me. The contexts are too different in my opinion.
London 2019: Beyond the fact that it wasn't a championship race, snowflakes is wrong in saying Jakob led from 600m out. Jakob took the lead with less than 600m to go and held it for less than 400m. Most importantly, he lost that race.
Florence 2021: It wasn't a championship race, and Jakob didn't take the lead until the final homestretch. I don't see how that's going to work against Hocker.
Eugene 2023: That wasn't even a 5k; it was a 3k with pacers and wavelight. I don't see how such a race is applicable to a championship 5k.
All I'm asking is for snowflakes to walk us through in detail how 2024 Jakob would have won the 5k in Tokyo in the way that race was run. If the belief is that 2024 Jakob had multiple ways he could have won, then it shouldn't be difficult to pick just one and take us through it. I don't think that's too much to ask.
I'm not even asking for a breakdown of the entire 5k. I'm just asking for snowflakes to take us through the last 5 laps in Tokyo as envisioned in this alternative scenario. Fisher comes through 3k in 7:51 with the rest of the contenders in 7:52-7:53. How does 2024 Jakob win from that point on?
He runs a final 2000 in sub 5, with a 54 second last lap. Boom, are you happy? Could you not deduce that from all my examples? Lol.
Thanks for your honest feedback and for your kind words about my posting history. Respectfully, those examples snowflakes gave don't sway me. The contexts are too different in my opinion.
London 2019: Beyond the fact that it wasn't a championship race, snowflakes is wrong in saying Jakob led from 600m out. Jakob took the lead with less than 600m to go and held it for less than 400m. Most importantly, he lost that race.
Florence 2021: It wasn't a championship race, and Jakob didn't take the lead until the final homestretch. I don't see how that's going to work against Hocker.
Eugene 2023: That wasn't even a 5k; it was a 3k with pacers and wavelight. I don't see how such a race is applicable to a championship 5k.
All I'm asking is for snowflakes to walk us through in detail how 2024 Jakob would have won the 5k in Tokyo in the way that race was run. If the belief is that 2024 Jakob had multiple ways he could have won, then it shouldn't be difficult to pick just one and take us through it. I don't think that's too much to ask.
I'm not even asking for a breakdown of the entire 5k. I'm just asking for snowflakes to take us through the last 5 laps in Tokyo as envisioned in this alternative scenario. Fisher comes through 3k in 7:51 with the rest of the contenders in 7:52-7:53. How does 2024 Jakob win from that point on?
He runs a final 2000 in sub 5, with a 54 second last lap. Boom, are you happy? Could you not deduce that from all my examples? Lol.
Please be more specific. When exactly does 2024 Jakob take the lead? What does he run for each lap? Remember, in the actual race, Fisher slowed down the pace after 3k.
The pace for the first 4600 meters was faster than any world or Olympic 5000 Jakob Ingebrigtsen has won.
And Jakob in the worst shape of his life finished four seconds behind Hocker in the best shape of his life.
It was a better strategy for Hocker to turn up in the best shape of his life rather than the worst. Now he has two global outdoor golds to Jakob’s four, he’s catching up
And Jakob in the worst shape of his life finished four seconds behind Hocker in the best shape of his life.
It was a better strategy for Hocker to turn up in the best shape of his life rather than the worst. Now he has two global outdoor golds to Jakob’s four, he’s catching up
I don't think it's a good strategy to have to rely on the best runners not being able to train properly to have a chance at winning, no. They're less than a year apart in age.
McRunnin, I honestly have lost a lot of respect for you. Normally your post are intelligent and insightful, but in this thread they are just downright stupid. Snowflakes has given examples of how Jakob could win several times and yet you keep claiming that he hasn’t. Maybe you should go back and read the entire thread slowly. No disrespect.
Coach Stahl
Thanks for your honest feedback and for your kind words about my posting history. Respectfully, those examples snowflakes gave don't sway me. The contexts are too different in my opinion.
London 2019: Beyond the fact that it wasn't a championship race, snowflakes is wrong in saying Jakob led from 600m out. Jakob took the lead with less than 600m to go and held it for less than 400m. Most importantly, he lost that race.
Florence 2021: It wasn't a championship race, and Jakob didn't take the lead until the final homestretch. I don't see how that's going to work against Hocker.
Eugene 2023: That wasn't even a 5k; it was a 3k with pacers and wavelight. I don't see how such a race is applicable to a championship 5k.
All I'm asking is for snowflakes to walk us through in detail how 2024 Jakob would have won the 5k in Tokyo in the way that race was run. If the belief is that 2024 Jakob had multiple ways he could have won, then it shouldn't be difficult to pick just one and take us through it. I don't think that's too much to ask.
I'm not even asking for a breakdown of the entire 5k. I'm just asking for snowflakes to take us through the last 5 laps in Tokyo as envisioned in this alternative scenario. Fisher comes through 3k in 7:51 with the rest of the contenders in 7:52-7:53. How does 2024 Jakob win from that point on?
Florence 2021: Jakob was in worse form than 2024, he got zero draft for 800m, then ran every bend wide for the last 1600m. Thanks for glossing over that. Any disadvantage he has from it not being a championship race is erased when you consider that 1) his tactics have improved since that race (he doesn't run every bend wide like that anymore. 2) Any advantage he gained from tucking in (he didn't) is automatically gone so despite not getting any drafting, he finished in 5:02, better than Hocker. 3) Whether he passed someone on the homestretch or went 1000m out doesn't change the fact that he showed he can survive and finish off a harder setup. There is no doubt in 2024 he would finish even faster.
London 2019: Jakob moved up to the front with 600m to go. If you want to get meticulous (not sure why you are) he was side by side with somebody with 600m to go. So whatever point you were trying to make fails, that is quite literally in the lead in the lead with 600m to go. He was then passed by Gebriwhet with about 350 to go, and then he ran the bend wide to try and pass him. That't about as close to leading as you can get. Getting drafting for like 40 meters is not a significant advantage at all, it's meaningless. Also, thanks for glossing over the fact he was 18 in that race, oh and he had a last 400 of 53.6 and last 200 of 25.6 (on the bend mind you). He ran Hocker - level finishing speed of a near-identical set up about....6 years ago. Any disadvantage form it not being a championship race is erased for these reason.
A 7:23 3k with a 3rd AT Mile the day before is more demanding than a 12:48 5000 or Hocker's 12:58. Never mind the sun. Also, 3K experience and skill is extremely relevant to 5000m Championships. Isaac Gressier won the diamond league final with a huge last lap and was right behind Hocker here. Ky Robinson, Mehary, Young, Kimeli all with 729-730 ability. Most 5000m championships are won by the guys with the best 3k. So to front run a 3rd AT 3000m after the first half of a race is relevant. Also, while there were pacelights, they were effectively useless after halfway of the race. Jakob slowed the pace down, it was a race and not a "DL time trial." Akin to the first 3k in Tokyo going out in 7:51.
What I have come to realize is that McRunnin can't actually refute any of the facts I am laying out, so until he does, I will check out.
Thanks for your honest feedback and for your kind words about my posting history. Respectfully, those examples snowflakes gave don't sway me. The contexts are too different in my opinion.
London 2019: Beyond the fact that it wasn't a championship race, snowflakes is wrong in saying Jakob led from 600m out. Jakob took the lead with less than 600m to go and held it for less than 400m. Most importantly, he lost that race.
Florence 2021: It wasn't a championship race, and Jakob didn't take the lead until the final homestretch. I don't see how that's going to work against Hocker.
Eugene 2023: That wasn't even a 5k; it was a 3k with pacers and wavelight. I don't see how such a race is applicable to a championship 5k.
All I'm asking is for snowflakes to walk us through in detail how 2024 Jakob would have won the 5k in Tokyo in the way that race was run. If the belief is that 2024 Jakob had multiple ways he could have won, then it shouldn't be difficult to pick just one and take us through it. I don't think that's too much to ask.
I'm not even asking for a breakdown of the entire 5k. I'm just asking for snowflakes to take us through the last 5 laps in Tokyo as envisioned in this alternative scenario. Fisher comes through 3k in 7:51 with the rest of the contenders in 7:52-7:53. How does 2024 Jakob win from that point on?
Jakob ran 7:17 and does have the unlaced 1500 advantage (3:26 vs 3:27). I think he ran his last 1600 in Paris in 3:53 and last 600 in 1:19.9. Especially if Hocker is back (ish) in the pack, I don’t think he can outkick Jakob running 53 low for the final 400 if the last 3 laps are fast.
No, I don’t think Jakob closes that fast if he splits 7:50 vs 8:10 or so, but I can see him “easily” running the last 2000 in 4:59 or so if healthy in a pretty fast race (4:05 mid + 53 mid) - don’t believe Hocker can hang, especially if someone else is the one pushing at 2k out. Say that’s off a 7:55 split - finishing time of 12:54.
For me, his 5k win has an asterisk. I can’t crown him as the best unless he beats Peak Jakob.
many down votes, dumb
Hocker is a well deserved winner, in a good field, but he beat the number 2 guy by how much, if he timed his run a little later no gold, right, and what do you think Prime Jacob would do in the same type of race. I think he could close the last 1500 in 332 ish, off 63 seconds a lap up to there, in other words jacob will not be in oxygen debt at 63 seconds,
we are talking about a guy that ran 58x for 8 laps and 55 mid for 5 laps
so, no, a good win does not beam you up to instant goat, its a great set along the way though.
Thanks for your honest feedback and for your kind words about my posting history. Respectfully, those examples snowflakes gave don't sway me. The contexts are too different in my opinion.
London 2019: Beyond the fact that it wasn't a championship race, snowflakes is wrong in saying Jakob led from 600m out. Jakob took the lead with less than 600m to go and held it for less than 400m. Most importantly, he lost that race.
Florence 2021: It wasn't a championship race, and Jakob didn't take the lead until the final homestretch. I don't see how that's going to work against Hocker.
Eugene 2023: That wasn't even a 5k; it was a 3k with pacers and wavelight. I don't see how such a race is applicable to a championship 5k.
All I'm asking is for snowflakes to walk us through in detail how 2024 Jakob would have won the 5k in Tokyo in the way that race was run. If the belief is that 2024 Jakob had multiple ways he could have won, then it shouldn't be difficult to pick just one and take us through it. I don't think that's too much to ask.
I'm not even asking for a breakdown of the entire 5k. I'm just asking for snowflakes to take us through the last 5 laps in Tokyo as envisioned in this alternative scenario. Fisher comes through 3k in 7:51 with the rest of the contenders in 7:52-7:53. How does 2024 Jakob win from that point on?
Florence 2021: Jakob was in worse form than 2024, he got zero draft for 800m, then ran every bend wide for the last 1600m. Thanks for glossing over that. Any disadvantage he has from it not being a championship race is erased when you consider that 1) his tactics have improved since that race (he doesn't run every bend wide like that anymore. 2) Any advantage he gained from tucking in (he didn't) is automatically gone so despite not getting any drafting, he finished in 5:02, better than Hocker. 3) Whether he passed someone on the homestretch or went 1000m out doesn't change the fact that he showed he can survive and finish off a harder setup. There is no doubt in 2024 he would finish even faster.
London 2019: Jakob moved up to the front with 600m to go. If you want to get meticulous (not sure why you are) he was side by side with somebody with 600m to go. So whatever point you were trying to make fails, that is quite literally in the lead in the lead with 600m to go. He was then passed by Gebriwhet with about 350 to go, and then he ran the bend wide to try and pass him. That't about as close to leading as you can get. Getting drafting for like 40 meters is not a significant advantage at all, it's meaningless. Also, thanks for glossing over the fact he was 18 in that race, oh and he had a last 400 of 53.6 and last 200 of 25.6 (on the bend mind you). He ran Hocker - level finishing speed of a near-identical set up about....6 years ago. Any disadvantage form it not being a championship race is erased for these reason.
A 7:23 3k with a 3rd AT Mile the day before is more demanding than a 12:48 5000 or Hocker's 12:58. Never mind the sun. Also, 3K experience and skill is extremely relevant to 5000m Championships. Isaac Gressier won the diamond league final with a huge last lap and was right behind Hocker here. Ky Robinson, Mehary, Young, Kimeli all with 729-730 ability. Most 5000m championships are won by the guys with the best 3k. So to front run a 3rd AT 3000m after the first half of a race is relevant. Also, while there were pacelights, they were effectively useless after halfway of the race. Jakob slowed the pace down, it was a race and not a "DL time trial." Akin to the first 3k in Tokyo going out in 7:51.
What I have come to realize is that McRunnin can't actually refute any of the facts I am laying out, so until he does, I will check out.
Look, I'm not here to quibble about races from years past. I've watched all three videos, and I see them differently than you do. From my vantage point, they are different contexts than the race we saw in Tokyo and what would have been required to beat Hocker.
I'm much more interested in discussing the Tokyo race which is the subject of this thread. I don't know why you're so reluctant to take us through in lap-by-lap detail what 2024 Jakob could have done in the final 2k to win in Tokyo. It would probably take less time than it took for you to write your post above.