Sections start in just 3 weeks! Here is my current read on the AAA sections and my current soft predictions. I am sure I missed important context but it's my best stab at it
Section 1AAA
Boys: Farmington & Lakeville North
Farmington boys have been a nice surprise this year, beating Lakeville North at Faribault Invite and were similar to them at Griak (different races). Owatonna should be in the mix also. One of the weaker sections as no team is ranked contender.
Girls: Farmington & Owatonna
Farmington is the top team with great Griak run. Lakeville North and Owatonna were tight at Griak so the final state spot seems like a battle between them. I‘ll take Owatonna right now with a mini upset though they did make it last year too. North beat South at AppleJack, but South could be a factor also.
Section 2AAA
Boys: Minnetonka & Chanhassen
Minnetonka is favorite and shouldn’t have issue moving on. 2nd spot is between Jefferson, Waconia, and Chanhassen. Chanhassen ran much better at Griak, but Waconia was close to them at Wildcat Invite. Jefferson and Waconia were in different races at Griak, but similar times. Jefferson now has Logan Young back (ran first 5k last Thursday). All 3 teams running tonight at Victoria Lions, so will be good test!
Girls: Waconia & Chaska
Waconia had a great Griak and is the favorite here now. Deeper section with Prior Lake, Chaska, and Minnetonka all ranked and in the mix. Chaska 3rd at Metro but struggled at Griak w/o Rebecca Ross. PL’s #4 Riley Bevan hasn’t raced since 9/4 when PL beat Tonka at Steve Hoag. Assuming Ross is okay, I’ll take Chaska right now.
Section 3AAA
Boys: Rosemount & Eastview
No more Jefferson in this section but clear cut here with Rosemount and Eastview. I wasn’t nearly high enough on Eastview preseason.
Girls: Eastview & Rosemount
Weakest girls section. Eastview and Rosemount were close at Griak but Eagan definitely in the mix too. All 3 teams are at Ev Berg on Thursday.
Section 4AAA
Boys: Two Rivers & Stillwater
This seems like a good battle with Two Rivers, Stillwater, and Woodbury. Stillwater and Woodbury were within 10 points at Griak with TR behind, though I think TR is better than what they showed with Dahlager back. Stillwater was also missing Crowley and Shockey at Griak, so assuming they are healthy, I like them too.
Girls: Stillwater & Highland Park
WBL is the other team that would be in the mix, but feel good on Stillwater and HP being the ones here.
Section 5AAA
Boys: Mounds View & Roseville
Easy 2 here. Champlin Park has their great top 2 but not much else. Osseo and MG too far back. Top few runners will be from other schools than MV/Roseville.
Girls: Maple Grove & Mounds View
Mounds View is still without Ousidigian, though based on what I could gather, I think there is still a chance she will be back this season. MG ran well at Metro and ran faster times than MV/Roseville at Griak. Roseville ran poorly at Griak but definitely in the mix to make state. This looks like another fun one.
Section 6AAA
Boys: Wayzata & Edina
2nd state spot after Wayzata is between Mpls Washburn and Edina. They were back to back places at Griak but Edina was ~70 points in front. I just trust Edina more to get it done at sections. Definitely one to watch.
Girls: Wayzata & Hopkins
No more Mpls SW but it will be a battle for 2nd state spot after Wayzata. Edina and Hopkins were close at Griak. I truly don't know which one I lean. Unlikely, but could Rogers pull the upset like Mpls SW last year and sneak into state? Not totally out of the question.
Section 7AAA
Boys: Blaine & Duluth East
Blaine should have no problem. 2nd spot between Anoka and Duluth East. They were close together at Griak but East was in front.
Girls: Forest Lake & Blaine
Duluth East and Blaine battling for 2nd spot. Blaine has the great 1-2 and was ahead at Griak, but East is deeper. In a section race, I’ll lean Blaine at this point.
Section 8AAA
Boys: STMA & Brainerd
This is a fun one that is a true 4-team race for 2 spots. Alexandria, Bemidji, Brainerd, and STMA were within 14 points at Preview meet. STMA was missing their #1, so I’ll lean them since he was back at Griak. Last spot could be any of the other 3.
Girls: STMA & Alexandria
Clear cut after the 8AAA Preview. Don’t think Moorhead can catch up to Alex.