Interesting to have Nordstrom listed but no sign of Kraus on the individuals. I suppose Nordstrom did have the better 3200 this spring of 9:30 between the two. I was surprised that Blaine didn't move up either. I think right now there are 4-5 different teams I could see winning the Class AAA title.
P.S. they must have had Casey Poppler from Mounds View last year and didnt bother to change the school for Nordstrom lol.
Are you talking about Carson Noecker? He's not on the fall roster. I wonder what's going on there.
Yes, not sure. I know in high school he wasn't sure if he would run in college and skipped all the regional meets to qualify for nationals. His track seasons weren't as impressive as his xc last season, perhaps he's nursing an injury and redshirting? He didn't run unattached in their first meet either
If he did NXR and made NXN in 2022 there probably would have been 4 Heartland guys in the top 10 at NXN that year. Along with Breker, Birnbaum, and Heidesch
Wayzata's Golomb was on college visits for Griak, so great news she is healthy
Two River's Dahlager was never injured and will be back racing soon. Section 4AAA is shaping up to be one of the more fun team battles between them, Stillwater, and Woodbury
Redwood's Salmon is possibly out for the season with injury- team still might be in podium mix but no chance at state title like rankings currently show
Orono's Jocie Hallen is coming back from minor injury and will be running at meet next week
Wayzata's Golomb was on college visits for Griak, so great news she is healthy
Two River's Dahlager was never injured and will be back racing soon. Section 4AAA is shaping up to be one of the more fun team battles between them, Stillwater, and Woodbury
Redwood's Salmon is possibly out for the season with injury- team still might be in podium mix but no chance at state title like rankings currently show
Orono's Jocie Hallen is coming back from minor injury and will be running at meet next week
1. Individually, the battle between Brownell and Duffy is shaping up to be incredible. If they both stay healthy that's going to be a top race to watch.
2. Next group right now looks like Charlotte Meyer, Sophia Stencel, Isabel Pass, Valerie Quast, Kendra Swanson, and Kendra Miller. Charlotte has had the most consistent season and I would say is the favorite for third. It'll be interesting to see what this group does at state - I could see a lot of movement within this group depending on tactics.
3. I think NLS is the #1 team right now, but it's a razor thin margin. They've got two head-to-head wins versus Cathedral and their #2 beat Cathedral's #1 both times. The wild card is Cathedral's current #5. She was their #1/2 by the end of last season. If she gets back up to the top it'll be Cathedral at state. I think Redwood Valley is the clear #3. After that there's a big group through about 12th.
Boys:
1. Semling is still the one to beat individually. Dougherty was 7 seconds slower at Griak but ran without any traffic in the Gopher race and had meaningful competition at the end. Semling did look mortal at Griak though and was clearly frustrated. If Dougherty can stick with Semling until 400m to go I think he'll have a real chance.
2. The next group is totally up in the air right now, but if you made me pick a #3/4 it would be Littlefield and Rach. A big group follows.
3. Team-wise Cotter is for sure the team to beat. I think Heritage Christian, Nova Classical, LA/RP/H and Redwood Valley are the next group. Would love to see more head-to-heads. Nova edged Heritage in a tight one at their preview meet but state has double the teams.
Out of curiosity what puts Rach at 4? What about Logan Wiehoff or Judah Allen? Both look really strong right now, even with Litchfield coming off of 6 straight meets and both their 1 and 2 beat Rach at Melrose, along with Wiehoff winning.
Wiehoff has good argument for #4, especially after Border Battle. I'm still ranking Rach high because of his track season and the fact it's his senior year - you've got more to run for. One of my hot takes though for sure.
If Allen is near Gabe Hallen from Orono at the Litchfield meet you'd make a believer out of me. That should be a very competitive meet up front for the boys - 9 under 16:30 so far this season. I believe Litchfield is known as a really fast course so I'm expecting some blazing times even with the heat.
Victoria Lions on Tuesday- Ranked AAA teams Stillwater, Washburn, and Eastview plus Two Rivers who will have Dahlager back. stuwe will be running too. For girls, Waconia should win but ranked PL, Chaska, and Stillwater there also.
Ev Berg on Thursday- Another look at Rosemount boys. I want to see how Lakeville North and Eagan boys run also as fringe ranked teams. Girls have a AA ranked battle between Mankato East, Northfield, and Winona.
Litchfield Invite on Thursday- Get to see how NLS lines up against Orono and Delano girls. Orono and Rockford are the top AA boys teams.
Meet of Champions on Saturday- Fun boys one between Perham, Stillwater, MV, and Roseville. Great individual battle on the AA side too. Girls has Perham, MV, Chaska, Stillwater, Alexandria, and HP.
Sections start in just 3 weeks! Here is my current read on the AAA sections and my current soft predictions. I am sure I missed important context but it's my best stab at it
Section 1AAA Boys: Farmington & Lakeville North Farmington boys have been a nice surprise this year, beating Lakeville North at Faribault Invite and were similar to them at Griak (different races). Owatonna should be in the mix also. One of the weaker sections as no team is ranked contender. Girls: Farmington & Owatonna Farmington is the top team with great Griak run. Lakeville North and Owatonna were tight at Griak so the final state spot seems like a battle between them. I‘ll take Owatonna right now with a mini upset though they did make it last year too. North beat South at AppleJack, but South could be a factor also.
Section 2AAA Boys: Minnetonka & Chanhassen Minnetonka is favorite and shouldn’t have issue moving on. 2nd spot is between Jefferson, Waconia, and Chanhassen. Chanhassen ran much better at Griak, but Waconia was close to them at Wildcat Invite. Jefferson and Waconia were in different races at Griak, but similar times. Jefferson now has Logan Young back (ran first 5k last Thursday). All 3 teams running tonight at Victoria Lions, so will be good test! Girls: Waconia & Chaska Waconia had a great Griak and is the favorite here now. Deeper section with Prior Lake, Chaska, and Minnetonka all ranked and in the mix. Chaska 3rd at Metro but struggled at Griak w/o Rebecca Ross. PL’s #4 Riley Bevan hasn’t raced since 9/4 when PL beat Tonka at Steve Hoag. Assuming Ross is okay, I’ll take Chaska right now.
Section 3AAA Boys: Rosemount & Eastview No more Jefferson in this section but clear cut here with Rosemount and Eastview. I wasn’t nearly high enough on Eastview preseason. Girls: Eastview & Rosemount Weakest girls section. Eastview and Rosemount were close at Griak but Eagan definitely in the mix too. All 3 teams are at Ev Berg on Thursday.
Section 4AAA Boys: Two Rivers & Stillwater This seems like a good battle with Two Rivers, Stillwater, and Woodbury. Stillwater and Woodbury were within 10 points at Griak with TR behind, though I think TR is better than what they showed with Dahlager back. Stillwater was also missing Crowley and Shockey at Griak, so assuming they are healthy, I like them too. Girls: Stillwater & Highland Park WBL is the other team that would be in the mix, but feel good on Stillwater and HP being the ones here.
Section 5AAA Boys: Mounds View & Roseville Easy 2 here. Champlin Park has their great top 2 but not much else. Osseo and MG too far back. Top few runners will be from other schools than MV/Roseville. Girls: Maple Grove & Mounds View Mounds View is still without Ousidigian, though based on what I could gather, I think there is still a chance she will be back this season. MG ran well at Metro and ran faster times than MV/Roseville at Griak. Roseville ran poorly at Griak but definitely in the mix to make state. This looks like another fun one.
Section 6AAA Boys: Wayzata & Edina 2nd state spot after Wayzata is between Mpls Washburn and Edina. They were back to back places at Griak but Edina was ~70 points in front. I just trust Edina more to get it done at sections. Definitely one to watch. Girls: Wayzata & Hopkins No more Mpls SW but it will be a battle for 2nd state spot after Wayzata. Edina and Hopkins were close at Griak. I truly don't know which one I lean. Unlikely, but could Rogers pull the upset like Mpls SW last year and sneak into state? Not totally out of the question.
Section 7AAA Boys: Blaine & Duluth East Blaine should have no problem. 2nd spot between Anoka and Duluth East. They were close together at Griak but East was in front. Girls: Forest Lake & Blaine Duluth East and Blaine battling for 2nd spot. Blaine has the great 1-2 and was ahead at Griak, but East is deeper. In a section race, I’ll lean Blaine at this point.
Section 8AAA Boys: STMA & Brainerd This is a fun one that is a true 4-team race for 2 spots. Alexandria, Bemidji, Brainerd, and STMA were within 14 points at Preview meet. STMA was missing their #1, so I’ll lean them since he was back at Griak. Last spot could be any of the other 3. Girls: STMA & Alexandria Clear cut after the 8AAA Preview. Don’t think Moorhead can catch up to Alex.
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