Finally -- Clarity in Women's 5k for US Olympic Trials

Bold prediction: Karissa wins the final. I’ll admit I’m bias as an Iowan but I think she has a real shot. She looked great in the semi and if the hr data of not going over 150 is even partially true, then she is way more fit than anyone expected. If Cranny, Valby, and ESP are all going back and forth and pushing the pace, she can possibly just chill in 4th and save energy. She also has a very underrated kick (she’s a 4:00 flat 1500 runner). ESP is rightfully the favorite but crazier things have happened. Don’t forget she is the 3rd fastest American ever.

Yes.

Hard to believe now, but Karissa's 14:26 pr is the fastest in the field.

Unfortunately that time was set four years, two surgeries and several ripped up calf muscles ago.

Fantastic she's been able to come back this far.

Was afraid Karissa was going to go the way of former-teammate Vanessa Fraser who had the same two surgeries four years ago which, in hindsight, ended her professional track career.

Still projecting Karissa for bronze Monday night.

However, if Valby is able to time-trial herself onto the team, Karissa is the one of the Big-4 most likely to be displaced.

One other scenario, though small as it may be, is for ESP to make a move early/mid-race as she did at the 2021 Oly Trials 1500 final as well as at last month's LA Grand Prix 5000. Should that happen, Cranny will certainly follow while Schweizer and Valby will do their best to hang on for as long as they can. That would be a first for Parker: being a chaser rather than the chased. People run out of there minds in races like that so who knows the outcome.

In any case, Karissa's best event is the 10k so will go in as the co-favorite with Weini with Parker as the likely bronze medalist there. The Trials 10k will be her second 10k since last year so Karissa will finally have a WA ranking -- but high enough to make it to Paris? Not sure if my arithmetic is accurate, but looks like a 31-flat or faster would be needed for Karissa to crack the top-27.

In the 10,000, Parker wouldn't be the only one who would benefit from pushing the pace. Weini Kelati is much more comfortable in races where it's fast from the beginning with her strong cross country background. She basically ran most of her race where she got the standard on her own until Megan Keith and Lauren Ryan reattached to her later in the race. She was able to outkick both of them, but that's not much of a strength for Megan Keith either.

If they have an off day, who of the main contenders is savvy enough to still make the team? For Valby, an off day would manifest in being unable to break the pack down to just three runners in the front. Cranny might not be feeling strong enough to close in sub 2:10. Karissa and Josette could get gapped in a quick race. ESP peaked too early and struggles as the pace ratchets down. On an off but not catastrophic day, I think cranny and ESP are savvy enough to at least stay in position to get top 3 with their kick. I think everyone else needs to be on, but I wouldn’t be surprised if any of these five plus Morgan, Dongahu or Smith make the team. Dongahu is the dark horse. If she’s with the pack when Cranny or ESP make a move, I expect her to have a move to make as well, but it may only be aimed at getting top 3. Her world xc race was a huge confidence boost.

Neh! It’s ESP, Cranny and Schweizer

Does Valby have a high enough ranking?

Is there any American 5000/10000 runner that does not have a strong cross country background?

Drew Hunter

Her score is 1179, which sits at 64th. She's ranked third in this race because St. Pierre and Schweizer haven't raced enough. When you limit it to 3 athletes per country, she would be 35th. She just needs to be in the top 42 of the athletes that countries are asking to bring. Presumably, yes. But without the list from every other country, it's hard to be certain. Is Lea Meyer from Germany going to run 14:52.00 in the next month? Who knows.

If any of you want to look through every athlete in all 206 eligible countries and who's actually competing at trials and how their country picks their runners. Be my guest. But Valby has a decent chance.

Yes. All talk. I’m sure about that. What an embarrassing performance by Andrews. And this video is even more embarrassing now in retrospect. It’s over for her

Hindsight is 100% accurate, so ESP/Cranny/Schweizer were the obvious picks all along after their performances at LA Grand Prix (ESP) and PTF (Cranny/Schweizer).

However, we still don't have clarity as to who will comprise the Olympic team.

ESP has all but stated outright that -- presuming she makes the 1500 team in a few days -- she will drop the 5000 (1500 quarterfinals less than 24 hours following the 5000 finals in Paris). Which puts Valby on the team.

But, hold on.

Cranny is the only one we know for sure will be racing the 5000 in Paris.

Valby is racing the 10k Saturday night. What if she wins -- meaning beats Kelati & Schweizer -- and get her WA rankings into the top-27? Does she double in Paris -- where she could possibly not even advance out of her 5000 semifinal due to lack of closing speed -- and compromise her 10,000 in doing so?

And what about Schweizer? The 10,000 is her best event -- had a terrific 2022 WC coming in 9th, just 8 secs behind Giday/winner -- so if she crushes it Saturday night, does she drop the 5000 as well?

Amongst a variety of scenarios, the longest-of-long shots would be Whitney Morgan, Alli Buchalski and Ella Donaghu being next in line to go to Paris because ESP, Schweizer and Valby all drop the 5000 in favor of their better events. Morgan & Buchalski are in the World Rankings Quota but only at 55 & 58 while Donaghu has no ranking.

So, it is unlikely -- but possible -- that Cranny will be the only US entrant in the 5000 in Paris.