Jump on the bandwagon now. Parker Valby is officially a SENSATION!!! Should we hand her the NCAA 5000 and 10,000 records now?

Tuohy has a wealth of track racing experience compared to Valby. Although the latter may be able to time-trial something exceptional, it remains to be seen if/when she can develop good race tactics, which will depend upon shorter repetition speed work, with fast recoveries.

Should we seriously believe from such an estimate that Valby improved (again taking Jack Daniels equivalents) by almost 20 sec. in the 3k (8:35) and by more in the 5k? And Tuohy was even better because she destroyed Valby in the xc finals but lost 20+ sec. of fitness within 3 weeks, so only 15:15 in Boston....?

Does anyone have examples from former where these dubious estimates from XC have successfully predicted what someone ran in december in a 3k or 5k indoors? Unless there are some such examples, I remain highly skeptical.

You seem to be completely missing the original point going back to Kellogg’s analysis, which was trying to evaluate the time from specifically a flat grass golf course, which is not at all like what the Stillwater course was.

And the issue of whether the Ole Miss course was short or not, is irrelevant to the analysis, which now instead of that hand-wringing, depends upon the hard data of relative athlete performances. It says the Ole Miss course is 3.1sec/km slower than the BU Indoor track, regardless of whether the Ole Miss Course is short, twisty, grass, etc.

And this is specifically for the Ole Miss Women’s 6k course; the men’s conversion could be a bit different.

I was a little shocked when Kellogg, Gault & Brojos, (new law firm) supported that fast xc to 14:40 track conversion, as every year we have the debate between fast, flat, hard pack courses in the south vs slow, hilly grass/mud courses in the north. This goes even more for hs than NCAA.

When they collide at nxn, foot locker and NCAA the truth always is revealed.

Yes I missed this but i it does not change the main point at all. How many successful predictions for e.g. december indoor 3k/5k were ever made by you, Kellogg or Nostradamus on the basis of XC times in former seasons? How close were they, better or worse then guessing? I am neither interested nor invested in NCAA so I dont know this.

My other point also stands. The conclusion that in XC someone at top NCAA should have a fitness level 20 sec. faster than their track times before (in June) or after (in december) is sufficiently unlikely to let the claims that someone was in that shape appear highly dubious.

And the revealed truth is going to heavily depend on which type of course it is being revealed upon.

To be clear so that your latter point/question is understood, are you saying it is dubious for a 20yr old to take 20secs (as an example) off their 5k time in a year or less?

only one way

Lydiard’s way to the top? What?

jo72 says that type of improvement can only happen with help.

I’m still waiting for your simple answer so there is a clearer understanding of what it is you find ‘dubious’.

Instead, maybe jo72 has trouble explaining how 19yr-old tuohy dropped over 30seconds from her 5000m time, without that being, according to his definition, “dubious”.

Edit: “…dropped over 30seconds from her 5000m time within the time frame of a year.”

she dropped 20 seconds on her 3,000 between Feb 2021 and Dec 2021.

hmmm…so maybe that’s why astro kept repeating only a doper is going to be able to beat her. some of us were the last to figure it out.

Anyway, here is what I think:

At the time of the SEC meet the following athletes and (my estimated) fitness were present:

Chelangat 15:15 - she just ran 15:18 at BU (finished 8 s behind Valby)

Tynnismaa 15:35 - based on Van Camp (finished 41 s behind Valby)

Van Camp 15:35 - based on her history (finished 39 s behind Valby)

Thorvaldson - 16:25 due to mono (finished 95 s behind Valby)

This would imply to me Valby was about 15:05-10

Gee - she lost by a few seconds to Tuohy who thinks she might be in 15:00 shape

Tynismaa and Olemomoi seem to be improving

Thorvaldson is back to 16:00 at BU. She was also10 s closer to Olemomoi at NCAA than she was at SEC.

Van Camp ran worse than 15:35 at NCAA

I can't see that Valby was in sub 15:00 shape during XC season. What the next few months brings, I do not know.

Why are you ignoring the different types of cross-country courses in your time comparison?

Pretty much everyone agrees it is likely the time gap between a ‘cold hilly course’ and a ‘pleasantly warm flat course’ is probably greater for Valby than it is for Tuohy.