Armstrongleaves wrote:
wiederganger wrote:
Mu is a huge talent, maybe once-in-a-generation, we shall see over the coming years. But the problem with being a huge talent is people throw superlatives at you, that are just not realistic.
I'm old enough to remember back to 1986, when Soviet LJ coach and former Olympic medalist Igor Ter-Ovanesyan said Heike Drechsler was capable of jumping over 8m. Yes, he said that. That same year, it was speculated she might be the first woman to run under 47 seconds in the 400m. All, in hindsight, quite ridiculous, but at that time, the hype was huge.
We have the hype now with Mu. Predictions for her aren't quite that outlandish yet, but they're getting there. She will not break the 400m WR. Nope. 800m WR? Maybe. She still has 1:76 to find, which is huge. Add to that the fact that all the women above her on the World lists were either doped or had a form of DSD, then that shows what a task she faces. But she is only 19, and she runs the distance, not just runs for places.
I have no idea why she is entering the mile. Personally, this leads me to believe she will only run the 800m at the Worlds this summer. If she wanted to do the 400/800, I'd expect to see her maybe running a 200m outdoors at some point, but not 1600's. There is nothing to gain from running a 1mile race if you want to run 400m at the Worlds. But hey, stranger things have happened - 100mhurdler Cindy Roleder (GER) opened her 2022 indoor season with a pentathlon, for fun, I might add - so maybe this is just to help her racing brain for the 800m.
Time-wise, I doubt she will be much under 4:30. I watched her 4:37 on YouTube, and while it appears she could have gone a bit harder over the first 1200m, 10 secs faster over the whole distance is a huge ask. She ran this race as she pleased, there was no scrap for the front at the gun, which is what will happen at Millrose. She ran a consistent pace, with no interference from others. Again, that wont happen at Millrose. She will, however, be dragged to a good time. I'm plumping for a 4:28.
Rewatch the video again with the race splits on hand:
https://results.flashresults.com/2022_01-15_TedNelson/005-1-01.htmSeems pretty likely that the plan was for her to run fairly even 35s for 200s through 1309m.
At that point on the video, when she gets to 300m to go, there is a notable shift in cadence and she finishes that penultimate lap almost two seconds faster than the previous lap as a result. She continues at about that same cadence through the bell and then when she reaches the same spot on the backstretch as her prior uptick (100m to go), there is another notable switch up in cadence and arm action and as a result she finishes the last lap 3.5 seconds faster than the prior fastest lap (despite only really shifting to faster speed with 100m to go). I don’t know what her official final 100 split would be, but I would not be surprised if it was sub-14 given the total lap being 30 seconds and the quite notable shift faster with 100 to go.
Given that absolutely nothing in the race itself necessitated these choreographed moves (she had no competitors anywhere near her), what’s the best interpretation of the splits and the timing of the upticks?
I would submit that what we saw was a controlled time trial/workout. The team was likely considering the Millrose switch prior to that race (she did switch from a planned and apparently solo 1000m race to the B-heat mile kind of last minute) and wanted to give her a chance to feel out the distance again, but in a controlled way. Run even splits @ roughly 4:40 pace until 300 to go, then a controlled surge for 200m, and then close faster over the final 100m. (I prescribe similar efforts regularly to a few athletes that I coach. A controlled versus all-out time trial gives a solid indication of fitness and starts to callous the mind and body for racing but deliberately avoids going to the well and helps to remove a bit of pressure and manage the athlete’s reactions afterwards depending on how it goes.)
There is no basis at all for thinking that what she ran last week was an all-out effort.
And certainly no reason to think that she’s injured or would be unable to win the 800 against women who are likely to also be at similar points in their training build-up for July WCs. You don’t run 48.32 and 1:55.04 in August and then forget how to run fast enough to beat this particular field five months later. When she ran her similar 1500 last April, she went on to run her 1:57.7 CR in cold and very windy conditions with no competition only TWO WEEKS later.
One other point that no one else has made yet: Mu not only ran her own controlled time trial/workout last Saturday, but she also watched two of the better women in this Millrose mile field compete in the 3000 (KoKo and Jessica Hull). She knows exactly what kind of mile talent she’s going to face on Saturday. And she decided that she’s up for the challenge.
It is certainly possible that she has fundamentally misjudged her ability to compete in this quality field.
But it may also be that a woman who broke 5 minutes for the mile as a 14-year old, finished 2nd at the AAU Nationals XC 5K (off of pure natural talent) as a 15-year old, set an American record (running .11 off the WR) of 1:23 for 600m as a 16-year old, and lost all of ONE race against the best collegiate and international competition last year maybe has another trick or two up her sleeve…
No one is saying 4.37 was an all-out effort. Finishing fast at that pace wouldn't have been that difficult for a 1.55 runner over the 800. But as a mile time it is slow. She is likely to be able to run faster but even 7-8 secs will take a lot from an athlete who isn't a specialist over that distance. I'm not saying she can't or won't do it but the kind of forecasts being made here are unrealistic. How often do we see a top athlete carve 10 or more seconds off their pr for this distance in the space of a single race?