Hocker vs Ingebrigtsen in Tokyo

supporterr wrote:

So, a third rate hack writing for Sportindepth, a website I have never even heard about, translates parts of a foreign language podcast and claims that Jakob said that he ran insane weekly distances as a kid, is your proof???

Again get real people!!!

The quotes in the article are accurate. You can of course choose not to believe Jakob.

I don´t think Jakob ran 80 miles at 10 but he ran quite a high mileage.

Otherwise he couldn´t run a 8.2 km road race at 30 minutes at that age.

Thanks for pasting the thread discussing the article, where I read about Jakob's mileage as a kid, "high school xc coach".

I like Sportindepth because of their biathlon coverage (Yes, I know Biathlon is kind of a joke stateside, but it is arguably the most popular winter sports in Europe).

I am not really a good judge of writers, but if you google translate this article:

https://www.nrk.no/sport/jakob-ingebrigtsen-om-romantisering-av-loping_-__fnyser-av-det_-rett-og-slett-1.15428234

I assume you will be able to see that Jakob likely did say what is claimed in the article. Personally I find NRK a trustworthy source. However, it is entirely possible that Jakob lied or that his memory is inaccurate.

Maybe the writer is a third rate hack, but I liked some of his other articles too. Especially the long read about Jakob, but also the one about the 400hurdles chasing the world record.

https://sportindepth.com/index.php/2020/09/23/a-prodigys-teenage-career-at-an-end-are-world-records-on-the-horizon/

Runningart2004 wrote:

Sadly no Cheruiyot this year.

NOR, GBR, KEN, ETH....will all bring a faster 1500m team than the US. AUS even has a faster team.

Unless they go stupid again like in 2016 when Centro won.....the winning time will be 3:33-34. The heats and semis will be loaded with guys much faster than ours. 2 will be left hanging. 1 will be in the final. My money is on Centro in the final but out of the medals.

So you listed 4 countries. Ethiopia and Kenya have teams filled with guys with mediocre PBs 3:32 or slower (aside from Tefera), and zero championship credentials.

Ethiopia's fastest guy Samuel Tefera, a time trial king of sorts, has failed to make it out of the semi and then even in a wavelight race lost to two guys at the recent Trials owing to his characteristically mediocre kick. Sorry I don't have much confidence in him or them. His teammates showed decent form to beat him but the splits were unremarkable and Ethiopia hasn't nabbed a medal in the 1500 in years.

For Kenya we have 1 complete unknown in second place. A known mediocrity (3:33-3:35 in European races, no team berths), Simotwo, until this past race won. Is he for real? Or was this just the product of Kenya's two best (Manangoi, Tim) being injured/out, and two guys in Kipsang and the other running out of the gas in the last 100. Kipsang has had a good season but got smoked vs. Wightman. His PB is 3:32.68, and he has no major experience.

Norway has Jakob I. and even with him getting sick yes I favor him to win. Filip, though, has looked mediocre to terrible since Monaco of 2019. We'll see if he's turned the page soon, but if he races like he has since that race his form would've had him in 6th or 7th at the US Trials. They don't have a third runner.

Great Britain undoubtedly has Wightman and Kerr. They're both quite good, but I'm not sure why I'd favor them over a healthy and in-good-form Centro. The 51.2 last lap in a 3:40 race was solid. Their performances were solid in Doha. It was a little bit disappointing that they both lost to an aging Lewandowski and fading Jakob (especially for Wightman). I don't think he is a step above despite a 3:29.4 PB because it was a drag race PB . Yes, I give them both the edge this year on Hocker. To Centro, no. He's proven he can win medals, which they have not.

Australia, next. McSweyn is a game competitor but his finish is just not very good. He is strong and tough, but can't match what Centro and Hocker can do in a non-time trial situation. I think him and Nuguse in an unpaced race would be a toss-up. You might scoff at that, but McSweyn couldn't beat Jye Edwards in their Championships. Worse, I don't think he made it as hard for him to win as Nuguse did vs. Hocker. But I don't want to crap on him he's a great runner, just I think is better suited to medal in a 5,000 if he can figure out the distance. Edwards is a pretty big unknown, but we'll know more after his racing in Europe. Oli Hoare is strong as heck, but he reminds me a lot of McSweyn at this point. I have questions about his closing speed. Again, strong squad but can any of these finish a race like Centro or Hocker. Dubious to me.

It doesn't have to be a front run from the gun. Herb Elliott 1960 ran an extended finish from 500m out. No one could stay with him. Straub in 1980 began his drive from 700m out and only Coe could beat him. Jakob has to ensure the last two laps are fast. Keino and Vasala in 1972 - 1.48 last 800m, with the Finn coming out on top. Hocker couldn't handle races run like that. Neither could Centro. Today, only sub-3.30 guys could.

*Not to mention El G and Lagat at Athens in '04 running the last 800m in 1.46x. But of course there's no one that fast this year.

Armstronglivs wrote:

A guy whose 3.31 at Monaco is his absolute best - which he still hasn't done - might make the final. But that wouldn't cut it against guys who can run 3.28. I can't see them waiting for the last 100m to give him a crack.

Few points:

1) Having this 3:31 or faster time in your resume is not necessary for medaling (Manzano 2012, Centro 2011, Cronje 2013, Filip 2017), but rather you have to be **capable** of it. I've seen enough from Hocker (and he has a 3:33 equiv.), but many others haven't obviously.

2) Guys who have run 3:28 is misleading. There is one guy.

Armstronglivs wrote:

It doesn't have to be a front run from the gun. Herb Elliott 1960 ran an extended finish from 500m out. No one could stay with him. Straub in 1980 began his drive from 700m out and only Coe could beat him. Jakob has to ensure the last two laps are fast. Keino and Vasala in 1972 - 1.48 last 800m, with the Finn coming out on top. Hocker couldn't handle races run like that. Neither could Centro. Today, only sub-3.30 guys could.

You say this so definitively but Hocker faced this exact race in the NCAA final and closed in 1:48 despite anything but a smooth ride in the last lap (a 52). If anything, he looked in better form at Trials where he expanded his margin vs. Nuguse. Yes, the long drive for home is a good tactic, but it's not so apparent that Hocker is poorly matched against it — he has good 5,000m strength for a 1500m guy.

Hocker won't even make it out of rounds.

You're a joke. I don't like Jakob, but he would scrape Hocker in a slow tactical race. Hocker doesn't even make the final, he won't be sniffing Jakob's jockstrap.

Armstronglivs wrote:

*Not to mention El G and Lagat at Athens in '04 running the last 800m in 1.46x. But of course there's no one that fast this year.

Glad you brought this up, since we are incredibly unlikely to see a closing 800m faster than 1:46 no matter how slow the race goes out, unless it’s truly absurd like 2016. Since we can probably all agree El G and Lagat in ‘04 were superior to anyone who will be in the field this year.

We saw Hocker close in 1:48.85 FAT off of 2:01 pace at NCAAs. If we accept Jakob is a level below El G and Lagat, but better than Hocker, does that mean he can close in 1:47 off a ~2:00 opening pace? I buy that, but not a ton of room for error for him in that case. The best tactic for him might be to chill for 300m then try to run a 2:47 1200m from the front.

Whatever tactic Jakob uses, I doubt it will be specifically to counter Hocker unless Hocker runs fast enough in a paced race to get Jakob’s attention. Of course, Hocker may be better off staying off Jakob’s radar until it’s too late.

I sincerely hope Hocker runs Monaco for the international experience before Tokyo.

Pre didn't race against any of the Europeans before Munich and it cost him a medal.

If Hocker does well in a stacked int'l fast race, I like his chances in Tokyo to medal.

I'm also picking Kerr for the podium.

No order, but if Tim C. does't run I got Jakob, Hocker, Kerr.

If Tim runs, it'll be Tim, Jakob, Hocker or Kerr.

That's my prediction.

Can't wait.

This post is so odd.

1) Silver medals for your country don’t mean anything to you? That’s such a weird take.

2) Women’s events don’t mean anything to you? Speaks volumes.

3) No one cares about 72-16. That’s an irrelevant time period. Move on. What have you done for me lately?

I’ll do the work. Please share which country you would like me to compare to the USA over the last 10 years - men only, 800/1500.

I’ll even break it down to “gold only” since silver medals are obviously irrelevant (except to athletes, sponsors, and entire countries of people) 😂

For what it’s worth, since 2011, the USA men and women’s team has won 18% (15/84) of the medals in the 800/1500. With only 4% of the worlds population and most people giving zero f###s about track, that’s damn good.

Adding the steeple medals would push us even further up the mountain. Then the sprints domination…

It’s a good time to be a USA track & field fan!

kw1954 wrote:

I sincerely hope Hocker runs Monaco for the international experience before Tokyo.

Pre didn't race against any of the Europeans before Munich and it cost him a medal.

If Hocker does well in a stacked int'l fast race, I like his chances in Tokyo to medal.

I'm also picking Kerr for the podium.

No order, but if Tim C. does't run I got Jakob, Hocker, Kerr.

If Tim runs, it'll be Tim, Jakob, Hocker or Kerr.

That's my prediction.

Can't wait.

I don't see Hocker getting a medal. Centro has more race savvy, he won't get boxed. Hocker will be using his kick to go from 10th to 6th after he misses a key move at around 400 to go. Centro remains the best medal shot for the US.

I still can't look past Jakob for the gold. A guy with 3:28 1500 speed and 12:48 5k strength is so far above the rest of the field that it's obscene. He should just go out and grind the life out of everyone, nobody can live with him other than Cheruiyot.

The Brits have a chance, both can close well and grind if they need to. I would place too much money on either of them but they are in the mix. Mcsweyn is nowhere. He's the ultimate time trialler. Every time I've seen him race he's either been dragged around or gotten his backside handed to him. Who has he beat on the international stage?

Notably, Josh Kerr with Jake Wightman just closed a 3:40 1500m in 51.4, albeit in what looked like much better conditions, so Hocker will have other European competition than Ingebrigtsen.

xczvzxcv wrote:

Notably, Josh Kerr with Jake Wightman just closed a 3:40 1500m in 51.4, albeit in what looked like much better conditions, so Hocker will have other European competition than Ingebrigtsen.

Yeah I mean I think Kerr in particular is one of only a handful of guys who could win. Not exactly a bold statement since he’s the world leader if you remove Cheruiyot who won’t be in the field. But everyone in the race should be concerned about his kick, no one is closing much better than 51.5 off of any pace. Centro was 50.62 FAT last 400 in Rio in a 3:50 race.

I do think this is where the Hocker bashing gets a little ridiculous. If Hocker can close in 52.2 in a 3:35 race, and Kerr can close in 51.5 in a 3:40 race, how is Kerr a medal contender and Hocker isn’t? Either both are medal contenders or neither are.

Also, all bets are off if Makhloufi shows up and looks good in the rounds.

Everybody seems to have forgotten gold medalist Ron Delany, slower than Hocker and with a similar kick.

Honestly I hope neither come close. What would be awesome is if the entire field got tripped up at the end and some guy who barely made it into the final won.

Because Kerr also ran 3:31 from the front on his own, and Wightman has run 3:29.