If you really want to know who is winning this war, compare the territory Ukraine took when it liberated Kharkiv and Kherson and Russia's success in Bakhmut and Avdiivka. Russia basically had to destroy these small cities to "liberate" them and lost tens of thousands of troops and thousands of vehicles/tank/artillery pieces. Russia has so badly depleted its stocks of artillery that it is now dependent on N. Korea and Iran. Ukraine has been fighting this war with one hand tied behind its back as the west has set arbitrary limits on the weapons systems it will give to Ukraine. Avdiivka was lost primarily due to an artillery deficit and no defenses against RU's air power. That was 100% on the West for failing to supply Ukraine with what it needed to hold back the Russians.
All Russia has done in this war is destroy the parts of Ukraine that it claims are infested with Nazis. Mariupol, Bakkmut, Mariinka and now Avdiivka have been all but wiped off the map thanks to Russia. If right wing Republicans get their way and stop funding for Ukraine, Putin may be able to seize larger swaths of territory as Ukraine runs out of firepower.
War has actually been good for Putin. It allows him to brutally repress the domestic population with expanded war powers. It has turned the Russian economy into a war economy, which is great for the oligarchs who own the weapons manufacturers. But the problem is that if the war ended tomorrow, Putin would no longer need to fund his huge war machine and would quickly find out that the Russian economy will collapse without the defense spending. So, Putin needs perpetual war. Any deal with Ukraine to stop fighting in exchange for territory will not last long. Putin will also make moves on the Baltics (Estonia and Moldova are next) and if NATO lets those countries fall, Putin will be able to continue pushing as far west as he can.
