Ghost of Igloi wrote:
How about this chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/socgen%20buybacks%201.jpg
What does the chart purport to show? I note that "change in debt" clearly lags "net buybacks," is that consistent with your implied meaning?
Igy, I'm not one of your tormentors, I honestly don't know what you mean in sharing this plot, can you help a brother out and explain?
...is not a good idea. Warren Buffet.
Unless you are trying to inflate the stock price to pump up management bonuses.
channeling Lev Myshkin wrote:
Igy can you confirm the numbers you threw out there earlier (12 and 15% drops)?
Sure:
2134 to 1867 = -12.5%
2134 to 1810 = - 15.2%
Igy
needing interpretation wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
How about this chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/socgen%20buybacks%201.jpgWhat does the chart purport to show? I note that "change in debt" clearly lags "net buybacks," is that consistent with your implied meaning?
Look at the trend, actually current data shows a surge. Corporations are funding buybacks through leveraging balance sheet via borrowing. For a specific example MCD has lowered share count last five years by 20%, but doubled their debt to $26 Billion. Debt will need to be paid off with cash or refinanced. Also, interestingly financing dividend increases through borrowing. See also MSFT and CAT.
Igy
fair enough, then is the smart thing to do to look for good value companies that have strong balance sheets and cash flow?
ok thanks wrote:
fair enough, then is the smart thing to do to look for good value companies that have strong balance sheets and cash flow?
No argument from me on that.
Igy
Igy is correct on his facts, that is not his problem.
His problem is that his facts are aggregated statistical facts, and that his fact set is limited.
There are many facts relevant to market performance that he does not, and effectively cannot, consider--i.e. the facts of individual power of traders, market-makers, bankers, funds. These are shadow facts that are critical to a real understanding of how the markets will work, and neither Igy nor anybody on this board has sufficient access to them to permit any meaningful longer-term analysis of future market performance.
I have a window into a very small slice, and I do believe that there are individuals who have their finger on the pulse, and their hand on the lever. Not many, but there are some. It's like pump-and-dump on steroids, and "we" will never know about it until after-the-fact.
I do believe that the facts insofar as he presents them are essentially correct, but that they are unfortunately limited to the point of ineffectiveness. Igy relies for his conclusions on the concept of a market, when there really is none. There is no "invisible hand".
Igy seems to rely on the premise that "markets"--that is, the aggregate behavior of many actors--is ultimately bigger than any control mechanism, and will outlast those control mechanisms, and that the world of trade will return to a market state, governed by market forces. He has positioned himself, and conducts himself, accordingly. Note that he has not bought out completely, and that he is still active. Only time will tell if he is correct.
I have already said what I believe, and it has caused me to conclude that current market risks are both unmanageable and unknowable to the extent that they can inform any investment decision. It is now full-on speculation, but the speculation is in a rigged game. As long as the rigging persists, everything will be fine. The problem is that the longer the rigging goes on, the more lucrative the proposition of crashing things. At some point the right actors will get together, and make an absolute killing like has never before been seen.
But not yet, because the rigging is a very comfortable place for some, because there is still consensus. It's very democratic as among market participants, the rising tide has indeed floated all boats.
My worry is not dissidents or a breakdown of consensus; my worry is of structural deficiency. "The markets" rely on on a huge and intricate infrastructural edifice, that grows both more robust and more sensitive with time. A significant power disruption will throw everything into absolute chaos.
But here's the rub: we now have the ability to turn back time. Everything to do with the markets is insubstantial, is just digitally-stored information. It is easy to turn back the clock and re-set to a favorable time. An example of this behavior is the canceling of trades that people think have already been executed. It happens already.
That is a mechanism that will be used to erase an adverse future historical market event. The clock will be turned back as if nothing had happened, and things will just be re-set.
Unfortunately for Igy, past performance really is no predictor of future results. The big crashes of the past were a reflection of underlying human behavior, mostly of greed and lust followed by panic. Today's market events no longer reflect those aggregate behaviors, they reflect the behaviors of a few critical market participants. Large-scale panic has been eliminated, and so have its manifestations (e.g. a huge crash). Confidence (ignorance) is at an all-time high, and shows no signs of abating. The sheep will not be allowed to panic until it is in the interest of the major powers to permit them to do so, and then the phenomenon will be managed by those who positioned themselves in advance.
I'm not holding my breath. The gains we have seen have been sufficient to satisfy even the most rapacious among us. It's enough, and the game is good enough just to keep it going. The great bifurcation has happened, and those in the top are sitting pretty, and they like the view. If there is to be any crash, it will have to be led by renegades with a high degree of access and permission, and that combination is now vanishingly rare, essentially extinct. If it happens it will come from outside the US and will be a cyber-phenomenon coming from India, Russia, China, etc., and its chaotic effects will just be erased via a re-set. The real issue will be whether some external agent will be able to disable the re-set mechanism, which is the highest critical goal.
Sure there are people working on it in both directions--to do it, and to prevent it. The battle rages in the background, with tests constantly being conducted by both sides. For now, the game is still good for everybody, and these mechanisms are not yet serious. It will be interesting to see what could destabilize the situation. A serious conflict somewhere could do it, but it would have to be really significant, and not only regional in nature--which basically means it will have to arise in or around the mideast, which is why we focus so much attention on that part of the world. There is a reason why people trade the news.
Placing some money with someone like Igy should be an important hedge component in any sophisticated investment portfolio, IMO. As long as the fees aren't too high :^)
Maserati,
In the end you may be right, but what a sad world. More likely your view reflects what the institutional traders believe they control behind the screen.
Igy
Yeah Igy, we have arrived at this point before.
I don't know that it's sad, that's a value judgment. I'm more circumspect, I think that people are, and always have been, generally morons at the individual level, and that the historical currents we see today are not unique to this time.
I also think that the idea of a "middle class" is an historical artifact that is anomalous to our time...also concepts like defined benefit pensions, retirement, etc. We gave it a shot, but we did it wrong, and I don't see the opportunity to recover. The pendulum will swing, as it always has.
We are just living at a particular time in history, which is purely by accident. It's not sad, it just...is.
Maserati,
I’ll buy that. Just from a philosophical standpoint it seems sad that we have progressed so little. Then agreed, should we expect more, perhaps, not likely.
Igy
Good to know. Anyone got any hot stock picks?
Everybody knows wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
How about this chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/socgen%20buybacks%201.jpgCorrelation is not causation.
The fact that GOI ignored this basic statistical tenet suggests one of two things; either he is ignorant regarding basic statistics, or he was being deliberately deceitful. Neither one is good.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
My position almost three years ago was stocks and bonds were an overvalued asset class. Around that time I said the next big move was down not up. That was correct, down -12% August-September 2015 and down -15% January-February 2016.
Igy
I wouldn’t consider those to be "big" moves, but that is open to interpretation. The "biggest" move is what has happened in the two years since Feb 16. Yes, the markets are overvalued, but they have also been resilient.
Statman Caruthers wrote:
Everybody knows wrote:
Correlation is not causation.
The fact that GOI ignored this basic statistical tenet suggests one of two things; either he is ignorant regarding basic statistics, or he was being deliberately deceitful. Neither one is good.
The third possibility is that he’s a troll. Wake up, people!
What are we all expecting to see today? Markets will either go up or go down, again?
