mellon wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
On the other hand you have constantly misrepresented my position
My Bad.
You are correct, I have represented you by being critical of a position that a huge drop in the market is upon us for the past 3 years that hasn't happen. Apparently, that's not the position your presenting.
Mellon,
My position almost three years ago was stocks and bonds were an overvalued asset class. Around that time I said the next big move was down not up. That was correct, down -12% August-September 2015 and down -15% January-February 2016. The Shanghai Accord brought the market back to the same level when I first posted by the eve of the election November 4, 2016 at S&P 500 2100. Trump Bump created a new spin to an already over valued market.
Hard to believe that hurricanes, floods, wildfires and massive indebtedness are the keys to ramping up economic growth. On September 30, 2014 Last Twelve Months GAAP EPS stood at $105.96, currently with 92% of companies reported 2017 S&P 500 GAAP EPS looks to close somewhere around $106.60. Tax cuts to the wealthy and corporations and debt added to the balance sheet of the nation. Yet somehow muppets believe there is a sustainable elixir to the madness.
Nothing has changed other than the excesses have become more excessive. The delusional are more deluded. More facts ignored and more yarns spun. It is not surprising that on a variety of metrics that the current S&P 500 is one of the most overvalued markets in history. I fully expect most investors gains since March 2015 to be more than wiped out by the competition of this market cycle. A reasonable downside S&P 500 target would be 1,525-1,575 the March 2000 and October 2007 highs. A bear market low similar to the Tech and Housing bust would find valuation support around S&P 500 800-1,000. Not my theory, that is the history of the market.
My posting will go on. I find nothing in your view historically correct or durable.
Igy
