Down goes the Dow

idiot! (me not you) wrote:

Mawasata wrote:I don’t know if we’re headed up or down (no one does),...

I know one thing for sure, the markets will either go up, or they will go down. And we can say the following with near certainty... within the next day, week, month and year, the markets will be at some time both lower and higher than they are right now (or than they closed yesterday).

That's some incredible insight on display right there. Very helpful too.

Guarantee: The market will be appreciably lower than it is now sometime in the not too distant future (weeks? months? maybe a year or two). And the game is not to get yourself caught in the meltdown.

In a periodic selling panic, always best to panic early and not late.

Way too late wrote:

Mawasata wrote:

It’s closer to 6%. That’s not much given the huge gains we've seen in recent months. People went gaga when the Dow reached 25k which is essentially where we are right now.

I don’t know if we’re headed up or down (no one does), but it’s way too soon to declare "it’s happening".

If you stay in it will be way too late.

Too late for what?

Shemp H wrote:.Guarantee: The market will be appreciably lower than it is now sometime in the not too distant future (weeks? months? maybe a year or two).

And on that latter point our predictions are equivalent. Neither is remotely useful. Which was really my whole point...

Shemp H wrote:

In a periodic selling panic, always best to panic early and not late.

Chicken Littles are rarely right.

Knead 2 no wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

You may have been. When someone posts using my employers name or other nasties, well it goes to far.

Who is your employer?

I think it’s J. Hardy. Amirite?

What's going on here guys? I thought the end of times was nigh!! This is the opposite of what I need!!!

Idiot!!! wrote:...yours ... is highly uncertain. Not remotely close to guaranteed on the one hand, and not particularly useful on the other in the absence of a confident timeframe.

I'm going to double down on this comment. I know and appreciate the markets rise and fall, and by all accounts the US markets "look" to be due for a big drop (at least if we assume "this time it's no different" which I take as a truism). But I have to say, > 3 years of chicken little-esque shy-is-falling wailing and chest beating and haranguing of others has amounted to the least useful assemblage of advice I've ever witnessed. No doubt MARKETS WILL FALL sometime, and possibly (even PROBABLY) by a lot. But it's counterproductive to absolutely everyone involved to run around banging a gong-of-doom.

There, I got it out of my system... :-) Y'all go back to what you were all doing before I decided to throw my teddy...

The question should be if your equity allocation is 70%, are you comfortable with the 70% becoming 30%?

There's a sell button. Ever heard of this?

You are clearly afraid of having to manage such decisions. Others are not. I think therein lies the difference. So you choose to be out of equities as a regular course (or so long that it might as well be). But the bigger issue to many of us is that you project your fears onto the investment strategies of the others participating on this forum.

Frankly, i consider that your loss and no one else's but that's just my opinion,

seattle prattle wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

The question should be if your equity allocation is 70%, are you comfortable with the 70% becoming 30%?

There's a sell button. Ever heard of this?

You are clearly afraid of having to manage such decisions. Others are not. I think therein lies the difference. So you choose to be out of equities as a regular course (or so long that it might as well be). But the bigger issue to many of us is that you project your fears onto the investment strategies of the others participating on this forum.

Frankly, i consider that your loss and no one else's but that's just my opinion,

And your views track the direction of the market, so I am confident your opinion will be 180 degrees different in a severe downturn.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

There's a sell button. Ever heard of this?

You are clearly afraid of having to manage such decisions. Others are not. I think therein lies the difference. So you choose to be out of equities as a regular course (or so long that it might as well be). But the bigger issue to many of us is that you project your fears onto the investment strategies of the others participating on this forum.

Frankly, i consider that your loss and no one else's but that's just my opinion,

And your views track the direction of the market, so I am confident your opinion will be 180 degrees different in a severe downturn.

I applaud you on one thing and i mean this sincerly. You have found an investment strategy commensurate with the level of risk you are comfortable living with.

But i think you fail to understand that alternatives exist, and may in fact be as profitable over the long term as your own. Your failure to acknowledge that on an ongoing basis has been frustrating for many here.

seattle prattle wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

And your views track the direction of the market, so I am confident your opinion will be 180 degrees different in a severe downturn.

I applaud you on one thing and i mean this sincerly. You have found an investment strategy commensurate with the level of risk you are comfortable living with.

But i think you fail to understand that alternatives exist, and may in fact be as profitable over the long term as your own. Your failure to acknowledge that on an ongoing basis has been frustrating for many here.

Carefully read my quote above. I have never said don’t own stocks. Simple matter really, adjust your allocation with valuation. I am assuming your sell button may be activated at an in opportune time.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

I applaud you on one thing and i mean this sincerly. You have found an investment strategy commensurate with the level of risk you are comfortable living with.

But i think you fail to understand that alternatives exist, and may in fact be as profitable over the long term as your own. Your failure to acknowledge that on an ongoing basis has been frustrating for many here.

Carefully read my quote above. I have never said don’t own stocks. Simple matter really, adjust your allocation with valuation. I am assuming your sell button may be activated at an in opportune time.

So, you suggest he would sell upon a downturn and move out of stocks by more than half. Okay, that's one strategy. Or hold for the long term counting on a rebound. Granted, your question is rather innocuous. But one might wonder why you assumed he would sell after all. It sounds like, from his wording, he is a buy and hold, counting on a rebound.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:The question should be if your equity allocation is 70%, are you comfortable with the 70% becoming 30%?

Idiotic idjit wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:The question should be if your equity allocation is 70%, are you comfortable with the 70% becoming 30%?

Now THAT is a better way of framing your thoughts. It matters ENORMOUSLY what my risk exposure and tolerance are.

Never inferred anything else.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Idiotic idjit wrote:

Now THAT is a better way of framing your thoughts. It matters ENORMOUSLY what my risk exposure and tolerance are.

Never inferred anything else.

Yet you choose to belittle those here who express a risk exposure different than you own.

No, rather you choose to hound and misrepresent with your multiple handles. For whatever perverse enjoyment you receive.

Nice day for trading. And for those actively in the market, for that matter.

Again.

Have a great weekend, all!