Down goes the Dow

"we changed form a long term growth market (since 1981-1984) to a trading range market"

This I agree with.

and also, your focus on the SP 500 exagerates the poor returns since 1999. Here are some other, totally investable indices over the same 15 years:

Small Caps: +9.7%/yr

Mid Caps: +10.4%/yr

Emerging Markets: +10.2%/year

REITS: +11.1%/year

Energy stocks: +14.6%/year

and there are more - but I have to go run now.

So you can state correctly that large cap stocks have had poor returns since 1999, but it is meaningless by picking that start time AND by focusing on just large cap US stocks.

Here's some Wilshire Total Return Indexes:

5000 5.41%

4500 8.46%

Reit 11.43%

LgCapGr 3.46%

LgCapVal 6.03%

LgCap 4.82%

MdCapGr 8.63%

MdCapVal 10.36

MdCap 10.1%

SmCapGr 8.35%

SmCapVal 11.35%

SmCap 10.13%

This is from 2/12/1999 to 2/14/2014 Annualized Return NOT CPI Adjusted

la gente está muy loca wrote:

Here's some Wilshire Total Return Indexes:

5000 5.41%

4500 8.46%

Reit 11.43%

LgCapGr 3.46%

LgCapVal 6.03%

LgCap 4.82%

MdCapGr 8.63%

MdCapVal 10.36

MdCap 10.1%

SmCapGr 8.35%

SmCapVal 11.35%

SmCap 10.13%

This is from 2/12/1999 to 2/14/2014 Annualized Return NOT CPI Adjusted

exactamundo - it took a poor investor to make only 5% per year since 1999. He would have had to own ONLY large cap US stocks. Virtually everything else did far, far better, and were in line with long long term averages.

From 2/5/14...

K5 wrote:

I suspect you will all be sh*tting your pants this week-end.

K5, let me know when you think the market will go up. Considering your record, that's when I will want to get out. Thanks.

starting to get fresh all time highs - small caps just hit new highs and the rest are just a fraction away

agip wrote:

starting to get fresh all time highs - small caps just hit new highs and the rest are just a fraction away

Yep. My stuff has done great since this thread appeared.

Flagpole wrote:

agip wrote:

starting to get fresh all time highs - small caps just hit new highs and the rest are just a fraction away

Yep. My stuff has done great since this thread appeared.

No kidding? We hadn't heard. Please disclose the details sometime.

Sally Vixxxens wrote:

From 2/5/14...

[

K5, let me know when you think the market will go up. Considering your record, that's when I will want to get out. Thanks.

My record? Getting out at the end of 1999 and back in in 2003? Out in 2008 about 20% of the way into the meltdown and back in in 2009 with the Dow at 9k.

And out with the Dow at $15k in 2013.

To re-enter after the next huge meltdown. Or maybe never again. The next one may be the next Depression.

Such a horrible record

K5 wrote:

Sally Vixxxens wrote:

From 2/5/14...

[

K5, let me know when you think the market will go up. Considering your record, that's when I will want to get out. Thanks.

My record? Getting out at the end of 1999 and back in in 2003? Out in 2008 about 20% of the way into the meltdown and back in in 2009 with the Dow at 9k.

And out with the Dow at $15k in 2013.

To re-enter after the next huge meltdown. Or maybe never again. The next one may be the next Depression.

Such a horrible record

Lucky, but you still missed the peaks and valleys, and since you were "out" you weren't buying when the market was actually low, and that's how you can make some mad money in the market.

Also, of the three times you exited the market, we only have proof of this last time (and least by you saying what your action were so we can really determine if it was good or not), and that's not going so well.

Your one option of never getting in again is a good idea for you since you don't have the stomach for the market.

Sally Vixxxens wrote:

From 2/5/14...

K5 wrote:

I suspect you will all be sh*tting your pants this week-end.

K5, let me know when you think the market will go up. Considering your record, that's when I will want to get out. Thanks.

Sally, rule #1 when you find a contrary indicator is do not tell the contrary indicator of his or her status.

It messes everything up if he or she knows. You want to keep the contrary indicator in a black box, so to speak, so he doesn't start second guessing himself.

Next time, eh?

agip wrote:

Sally Vixxxens wrote:

From 2/5/14...

K5, let me know when you think the market will go up. Considering your record, that's when I will want to get out. Thanks.

Sally, rule #1 when you find a contrary indicator is do not tell the contrary indicator of his or her status.

It messes everything up if he or she knows. You want to keep the contrary indicator in a black box, so to speak, so he doesn't start second guessing himself.

Next time, eh?

My bad. Sorry.

Flagpole.

You're the guy who thinks that he does not lose money when the value of his investments tank and who would not bet $50,000 on a 1 in 4 chance of winning $1 million.

You are incredibly stupid.

K5 wrote:

Flagpole.

You're the guy who thinks that he does not lose money when the value of his investments tank and who would not bet $50,000 on a 1 in 4 chance of winning $1 million.

You are incredibly stupid.

That's not stupid.

another all time high for global stocks today

SP 500 all time high too

The dow is lagging this year - still 2.2% below its all time high

I'd hate to have missed this.

lpd wrote:

K5 wrote:

Flagpole.

You're the guy who thinks that he does not lose money when the value of his investments tank and who would not bet $50,000 on a 1 in 4 chance of winning $1 million.

You are incredibly stupid.

That's not stupid.

CORRECT!

Sally Vixxxens wrote:

I'd hate to have missed this.

Me too...which is why I DIDN'T!

The getting in and out thing is such a bad idea...it really is.

The amount I've made since June is crazy.

New all time high of the S&P 500 today... 1853 as I type.