...like Maserati.
...like Maserati.
But in the end we still have a 2-family that sells for 250k, but with the back door missing - it was sold for scrap - the top porch has 6 inches of dog feces, because the apartment dwellers are too lazy to walk their pit bull, there is more feces flung up on the roof, someone stole half the copper pipe for scrap, and 23 people inhabit the two apartments at any one time - all who have $1,000 cell phones. Yet out of town investor buys the apartment for 250k because he believes it will soon be worth 350k, and it may well be.
...of course the appraisers love all the action. the one honest appraiser went out of business, and other ones sprang up and are all driving Caddies in exchange for their moral elasticity. City Hall loves the action, and they have even levied a bed tax, equal to one month's rent. The speculators don't care, because they aren't in the rental business. They are in the capital appreciation business.
ghost of 29 wrote:
To put things in perspective, let's consider a housing market, like down town Niagara Falls. A two family can be bought for about 30k. The city is a dump. Now, suppose the city takes vacant housing out of the price equation, and the average price bumps up to 32k. Then, the city provides a housing subsidy to perspective buyers, further inflating the price to 38k. Then, they decide to eliminate houses that are expected to be foreclosed upon, where the landlord is behind by one payment. The average price further increases to 49k.
OK maybe.
Then the city uses the increase in prices as a selling point for investors. Speculators further inflate the average price to 84k.
That's bit much don't you think.
Then, comes the currency manipulation. The city government decides to use their own dollars, and exchanges them in a 2:1 ratio. Now, the average housing price is 164k., although the fine print says in NF dollars.
A middle of nowhere tourist trap town can print its own currency now?
Then the city talks of further development. Donald Trump is coming to town, so the rumor says, and he is going to develop the water front. Speculators push the price further up to 250k.
Again, no way does a dump like that get inflated that much. But let's assume it does. Then a whole bunch of poor people have houses now worth almost 10 times what they paid so they sell and go buy some other house or something. It doesn't sell because its a dump? Then I guess it's not really worth 250k to begin with and the appraisers get run out of town.
Even in 2006 home prices were only like, what, 20% inflated? Most of those were new and nice homes too. The kind of economic collapse I'm rooting for has to start with the common people; I just don't see some government conspiracy working at any level and even if it did for Niagara Falls in this scenario then big deal, that's one middle of nowhere town. When high school teachers have brand new 300k houses and a Lexus in the driveway then I'll know the end of times are near.
I admit my illustrations were a bit imaginative.
I don't think a government conspiracy is at hand. There are likely a few prime movers, and a lot of compliance.
Still an idiot wrote:
As helpful as your pithy reply seems in your mind, I was asking what Maserati meant
He says the crash is coming and soon.
How tough is it to understand that?
Pithy enuff for you?
One thing I have learned about human nature is, loosen the purse strings and throw a little money around, and most people have less self control than Donald Trump in a roomful of Russian whores.
"Just a conjecture, but Maserati seems to be saying the ruling elite have been using one-time fixes and manipulated data to keep the momentum going. Sooner or later that runs out, and wham!"
Right. You would have to be blind to not see what is going on all around you.
Those of you touting EM's, you are a bit late but better late than never. Be careful. Are you talking bond funds? Which particular funds/stocks/markets are you considering?
Re: Wall St guys. I was one of those guys recruited. Went, looked around, left to live a better life. Was I smart at the time? Certainly not--exactly the opposite, in fact. Yes I had absolutely top grades, yes I was bright, yes I was energetic and hyper-intelligent--but I was a moron. None of that was tempered by any wisdom or experience, although I did make what I consider the good decision to leave (I also left the military after I realized it wasn't a patriotic mission but a dead-end bureaucracy).
Guys like I was were everywhere. Morons, all. What a culture, pretty much the first thing they tempt you with is literally hookers and blow. They're idiots, like attack dogs on chains, doing their masters' bidding.
And yes, the guys making the policy decisions are biznobs with daddies, but the power of the functional guys to wreak havoc or carry the day should not be underestimated. They do (at least they used to) many things without specific authorization, because it's easier to ask for forgiveness than permission. Some of the guys I know from back then are "rich", but they're still morons, now morons with bigger egos. Some have gone belly-up, some have lives that are disasters.
No I don't believe they know what they are doing. Ditto central bankers and regulators. The central bankers believe that policy is all-powerful and that it has superseded and eclipsed market forces. While that may be true within a system, it is not true across systems, which is why the US has tried to extend its market reach globally, and impose its policy on foreign entities and markets, and continues to do so.
But as long as there are external options, their policy is not in fact all-powerful, and we are seeing the effects of that now--like you guys seeking EM safe havens, and maybe commodities.
The one-time fixes include adjustments in the calculation of GDP, CPI, etc., and there have been some significant ones. They will continue to jigger the numbers, but what you really want is something with some longitudinal quality, something that is normalized. You can do it yourself, or you can look at a site like shadowstats.
No, people in other parts of the world aren't smarter, either--but they are less arrogant to some extent, and they have been forced to have been a bit more clever. London is the particular disaster at the moment, you wouldn't believe who is "banking" there. In fact, my french family are heavily involved, because they recruit from the ecoles superieurs. They're so closeted, so insular. There are no markets, there are just exclusive playgrounds. Everyone is doing what they can just to make money while there is some to be made.
I'm OK, I just don't want to have to actively manage many things. I don't want to have to stay one step ahead of collapsing currencies, treacherous markets, and tyrannical governments. That's no way to live.
On the positive side of things, my economist friends say the U.S. is poised to be the center of innovation for years to come. That doesn't mean there won't be a few hiccups along the way., and even a few fiscal abysses. Think of where we could be if we had an efficient government that got out of the way, and let the markets work themselves out.
ghost of 29 wrote:
Think of where we could be if we had an efficient government that got out of the way, and let the markets work themselves out.
Probably bankrupt and homeless?
ghost of 29 wrote:
But in the end we still have a 2-family that sells for 250k, but with the back door missing
No you don’t. You have an extremely unlikely situation. It’s a better bet that GOI will say something sensible.
Earnings Scorecard: For Q4 2017 (with 80% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results for the quarter), 75% of S&P 500 companies have reported positive EPS surprises and 78% have reported positive sales surprises. If 78% is the final number for the quarter, it will mark the highest percentage since FactSet began tracking this metric in Q3 2008.
Earnie(ings) FactCheck
As Reported (GAAP) Q4,'17 has declined to $26.74 from the year-end estimate of $31.77, approximately $42.9 billion.
No worries.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Earnie(ings) FactCheck
As Reported (GAAP) Q4,'17 has declined to $26.74 from the year-end estimate of $31.77, approximately $42.9 billion.
No worries.
My numbers are ACTUAL RESULTS.
Yours are guesses.
Earnie wrote:
Earnings Scorecard: For Q4 2017 (with 80% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results for the quarter), 75% of S&P 500 companies have reported positive EPS surprises and 78% have reported positive sales surprises. If 78% is the final number for the quarter, it will mark the highest percentage since FactSet began tracking this metric in Q3 2008.
Earnings continue to go through the roof. I’m sure glad I didn’t bail when the weak minded were panicking. ?
I am glad you didn’t either. We need saps, I mean folks like you.
WB
Uncle Warren wrote:
I am glad you didn’t either. We need saps, I mean folks like you.
WB
The saps are the ones who panicked over a small and short-lived correction.
Layer wrote:
Uncle Warren wrote:
I am glad you didn’t either. We need saps, I mean folks like you.
WB
The saps are the ones who panicked over a small and short-lived correction.
You'll see.
The market is up 30-40% since the election...Quit yer cryin....