Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Source of the article Gruntings....clearly posted Gruntings.....
I thought you were referring to what I posted.
Of course what you posted is fake news.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Source of the article Gruntings....clearly posted Gruntings.....
I thought you were referring to what I posted.
Of course what you posted is fake news.
Maserati, you're using coded language, would you mind translating into plain English for us simple folk? Can you please elaborate what you mean by these alarmist statements:
Maserati wrote:And make no mistake, “the crash” IS going on, right now—it’s just that most cannot, or will not, see it.
...Now, even the bogus data look weak, and that’s really bad. The truth is that collapse is happening, RIGHT NOW.
...It is happening, right now. It’s like watching a quickly-moving glacier. Dems will have a field day for a while, while real pain is visited upon their constituents.
What is the specific doom you forecast on the near horizon?
Thanks in advance
Extra end wrote:
Since the current bull market began in March of 2009, Mr. Hussman has repeatedly called for a titanic decline in the S&P 500, but, in a twist of irony, it has been his own fund, Hussman Strategic Growth (HSGFX), that has suffered a disastrous bear market all its own with a peak-to-trough decline of almost 50%.
http://www.fortunefinancialadvisors.com/blog/of-pessimism-and-pride
Can you imagine being a follower of this nonsense for the past eight plus years.
Those loses will never be regained. But as we know, they are a stubborn bunch.
Percentages matter wrote:
Wowie wrote:
Oh no. It'll before way before that.
The Dow down 1500 pts at one point and then down over 1,000 a couple of days later.
That kind of downward volatility always means a crash is coming.
Points are irrelevant.
I think you have an issue with English.
original idiot wrote:
Maserati, you're using coded language, would you mind translating into plain English for us simple folk? Can you please elaborate what you mean by these alarmist statements:
Maserati wrote:And make no mistake, “the crash” IS going on, right now—it’s just that most cannot, or will not, see it.
...Now, even the bogus data look weak, and that’s really bad. The truth is that collapse is happening, RIGHT NOW.
...It is happening, right now. It’s like watching a quickly-moving glacier. Dems will have a field day for a while, while real pain is visited upon their constituents.
What is the specific doom you forecast on the near horizon?
Thanks in advance
The Dow will drop below 17.5k before June 1st.
How's that?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
muy loco,
Mike Wilson timed his call correctly on XLU. Mike does good work. Our fixed income folks have always been pretty good on their calls, and they are looking for a year end 10 Year at 1.95%. So that supports the call.
In regards to AUEIX we have used the AQR institutional shares class in our models. My business partner, similar to yourself really enjoys the risk adjusted return analysis. The notion to flip exposure was my idea. The genesis of concentrated positions in some of the most over owned securities in funds GFFFX and MADVX. I did not want to get out of domestic equities but try not to replicate or over weight index security percentages. So about mid-January I asked my partner what fund would meet that general profile. It did not take much convincing it was the one I felt most comfortable with.
Thanks for noticing.
Igy
I am pleasantly surprised to learn that Igy's partner has convinced him to embrace funds rather than individual stocks. Given his stock picking "prowess", he is wise to leave at least part of his investments in the hands of others.
Good move wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
muy loco,
Mike Wilson timed his call correctly on XLU. Mike does good work. Our fixed income folks have always been pretty good on their calls, and they are looking for a year end 10 Year at 1.95%. So that supports the call.
In regards to AUEIX we have used the AQR institutional shares class in our models. My business partner, similar to yourself really enjoys the risk adjusted return analysis. The notion to flip exposure was my idea. The genesis of concentrated positions in some of the most over owned securities in funds GFFFX and MADVX. I did not want to get out of domestic equities but try not to replicate or over weight index security percentages. So about mid-January I asked my partner what fund would meet that general profile. It did not take much convincing it was the one I felt most comfortable with.
Thanks for noticing.
Igy
I am pleasantly surprised to learn that Igy's partner has convinced him to embrace funds rather than individual stocks. Given his stock picking "prowess", he is wise to leave at least part of his investments in the hands of others.
Get out of equities and get out now. It's coming.
Highest 5-day run-up since 2011.
As helpful as your pithy reply seems in your mind, I was asking what Maserati meant
Just a conjecture, but Maserati seems to be saying the ruling elite have been using one-time fixes and manipulated data to keep the momentum going. Sooner or later that runs out, and wham!
Modern history wrote:
Highest 5-day run-up since 2011.
For the week, the Dow was on track for its best rise since the period ended Dec. 2, 2011, the S&P 500 looked set for the best weekly climb since Jan. 4, 2013, while the Nasdaq appeared set for its best such return since the period ended Nov. 11, 2016.
ghost of 29 wrote:
Just a conjecture, but Maserati seems to be saying the ruling elite have been using one-time fixes and manipulated data to keep the momentum going. Sooner or later that runs out, and wham!
If true, I believe he is vastly overestimating the intelligence of those on Wall Street. I want to believe, I really do, but all those factors that were listed (if even accurate, I don't have time to verify) doesn't seem that big of a deal. Plus, I need more than a correction or bear market. I need record high foreclosures and top 5 hedge funds going bankrupt.
Racket wrote:
ghost of 29 wrote:
Just a conjecture, but Maserati seems to be saying the ruling elite have been using one-time fixes and manipulated data to keep the momentum going. Sooner or later that runs out, and wham!
If true, I believe he is vastly overestimating the intelligence of those on Wall Street. I want to believe, I really do, but all those factors that were listed (if even accurate, I don't have time to verify) doesn't seem that big of a deal. Plus, I need more than a correction or bear market. I need record high foreclosures and top 5 hedge funds going bankrupt.
There is a pretty solid pipeline from MIT and the IVY's into investment banking.
ghost of 29 wrote:
Racket wrote:
If true, I believe he is vastly overestimating the intelligence of those on Wall Street. I want to believe, I really do, but all those factors that were listed (if even accurate, I don't have time to verify) doesn't seem that big of a deal. Plus, I need more than a correction or bear market. I need record high foreclosures and top 5 hedge funds going bankrupt.
There is a pretty solid pipeline from MIT and the IVY's into investment banking.
Yeah, as quants. They're no doubt smart as hell and behind a lot of the financial vehicles that banks love to abuse. But they don't really make a lot of high level decisions. Those come from the frat a$$hole business school kids that barely graduated with Cs and then got a job at daddy's company.
...and they are not smart enough to see a train wreck coming.
Enron had a few smart folks. Just saying.
ghost of 29 wrote:
Enron had a few smart folks. Just saying.
I heard they were... the smartest men in the room?
To put things in perspective, let's consider a housing market, like down town Niagara Falls. A two family can be bought for about 30k. The city is a dump. Now, suppose the city takes vacant housing out of the price equation, and the average price bumps up to 32k. Then, the city provides a housing subsidy to perspective buyers, further inflating the price to 38k. Then, they decide to eliminate houses that are expected to be foreclosed upon, where the landlord is behind by one payment. The average price further increases to 49k. Then the city uses the increase in prices as a selling point for investors. Speculators further inflate the average price to 84k. Then, comes the currency manipulation. The city government decides to use their own dollars, and exchanges them in a 2:1 ratio. Now, the average housing price is 164k., although the fine print says in NF dollars. Then the city talks of further development. Donald Trump is coming to town, so the rumor says, and he is going to develop the water front. Speculators push the price further up to 250k.
In the end we have a two family unit that has the cash flow to justify a 30k price. The smart investors had their money invested in the suburbs all along.
^^^ Lots of IFs there. ^^^
Just saying. wrote:
^^^ Lots of IFs there. ^^^
True. All I can do is raise the possibility. Some bankers may have more insight.