...for the time being.
...for the time being.
I guess the stock market is not really a market.
Maserati wrote:
He bears all the scars unabashedly...and unknowingly.
.
You cannot be unabashed and unknowing at the same time.
My God you are stupid.
fake news...... wrote:
I guess the stock market is not really a market.
Actually it very much exhibits the characteristics of a market.
God hep us wrote:
Maserati wrote:
He bears all the scars unabashedly...and unknowingly.
.
You cannot be unabashed and unknowing at the same time.
My God you are stupid.
Oh, the irony!
Sure it was wrote:
Reading is FUNdamental wrote:
That wasn’t the opening sentence.
Of course it was. The post is still there for all to seem. You do realize this?
Double Dumass.
Maybe you should try reading it again, DD.
What are we expecting the US markets to do today... up, down or sideways? I got nervous Friday and offloaded over half my portfolio, then I got nervous yesterday and bought back in a little (I had overshot my selling intent Friday). After a good discussion with my wife, I intend to sit tight and watch things the next week or two before deciding when to rebalance the portfolio and reinvest some or all the new cash.
Thoughts?
(BTW less than a third of my holdings are US stocks, so while I'm sensitive to the US markets, I'm not completely exposed there)
Your wife sounds sensible.
original idiot wrote:
What are we expecting the US markets to do today... up, down or sideways? I got nervous Friday and offloaded over half my portfolio, then I got nervous yesterday and bought back in a little (I had overshot my selling intent Friday). After a good discussion with my wife, I intend to sit tight and watch things the next week or two before deciding when to rebalance the portfolio and reinvest some or all the new cash.
Thoughts?
(BTW less than a third of my holdings are US stocks, so while I'm sensitive to the US markets, I'm not completely exposed there)
wednesday is the big day - there are inflation data coming out. Since inflation is the big fear right now, i suspect traders will be quiet today and make their bets tomorrow.
What is the significance of using 12 year returns?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://mobile.twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/963413692128940032?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Voodoo mathematics.
agip wrote:
wednesday is the big day - there are inflation data coming out. Since inflation is the big fear right now, i suspect traders will be quiet today and make their bets tomorrow.
Agip , some graphs you may find interesting .
Non-overlapping 10 year inflation growth ( black line is 2007 to 2017 )
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=hx8lNon-overlapping 5 year inflation growth ( black line is 2012 to 2017 )
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=hx8ihttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=hx8gOn the 10 year graph only 1927 - 1937 was lower ; and on the 5 year graphs 1957 - 1962 , 1952 - 1957 , 1922 - 1927 and 1927 - 1932 were lower than 2012 - 2017 and 2007 - 2012 .
Now look at these 2 graphs from Sri Thiruvadanthai , Director of Research of the Jerome Levy Institute .
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DVtc6XKUMAAdBWf.jpg:largehttps://pbs.twimg.com/media/DVtcdv9UMAEIryR.jpgBoth charts graph the year over year changes in the S&P 500 and the Cleveland Fed 10 year expected inflation rate .
https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-data/inflation-expectations.aspxThe top graph ; 1982 - 2000 shows a negative correlation . Inflation expectations rise , stocks fall . The other chart ; 2000 - 2017 shows a positive correlation . Inflation expectations rise , stocks rise . There was an apparent regime change in 2000 , from fear of inflation to fear of deflation . The $27 + trillion question is , are we on the cusp of another regime change ?
seems to me that inflation is a greater fear than deflation at this point...with an economy at full employment getting further stimulus etc.
I mean we know the economy is running well...we aren't worried too much about it falling into recession and causing deflation.
So I'd suspect that if there are signs of building inflation, bonds will sell off.
That will probably hit the stock market...short term anyway. Just reflexive. But longer term, shouldn't hurt stocks too much if the 10 year goes to say 3.5%. That's not a high interest rate.
this is the story of this correction - nutso VIX trades, legal and illegal, messing with markets.
The vol traders in XIV and others, using them to manipulate markets and eventually destroy the XIV. causing margin calls and sharp sell offs.
the vix is STILL very high even tho the market is calm. The VIX may be broken.
Math Mann wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://mobile.twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/963413692128940032?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5EtweetVoodoo mathematics.
The sad thing is that some people actually believe this. Anyone with who passed Algebra 1 can see through this nonsense.
Log this wrote:
Math Mann wrote:
Voodoo mathematics.
The sad thing is that some people actually believe this. Anyone with who passed Algebra 1 can see through this nonsense.
I dare you and your buddies to publicly challenge John Hussman’s work on Twitter. You can’t. You won’t. If you tried you would look like idiots.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Log this wrote:
The sad thing is that some people actually believe this. Anyone with who passed Algebra 1 can see through this nonsense.
I dare you and your buddies to publicly challenge John Hussman’s work on Twitter. You can’t. You won’t. If you tried you would look like idiots.
Wake up. There are dozens of people doing this.
Example 1:
John, you are being intellectually dishonest and you know it.
Example 2:
It’s your short term calls that you’ve periodically made that look very silly (sornette, recession, various other technicals analysis)
