Down goes the Dow

?

wondering wrote:

And it’s still not 11%.

???

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Cough it up, what is the number? Don’t choke on it!

For the week you mention, it’s 8.8%. For the current week, 5.2%.

All I wanna know is should I start shorting ETFs and will it be like shorting mortgage backed securities in 2007

wondering wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Cough it up, what is the number? Don’t choke on it!

For the week you mention, it’s 8.8%. For the current week, 5.2%.

Probably because you hold bonds or cash.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

wondering wrote:

For the week you mention, it’s 8.8%. For the current week, 5.2%.

Probably because you hold bonds or cash.

Those numbers are for the Dow.

OK. So none of that is your performance. What’s up with that?

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

OK. So none of that is your performance. What’s up with that?

Obviously my performance wouldn’t be as poor as the Dow's. It looks like mine is down about 3.1% for this week.

????

wondering wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

OK. So none of that is your performance. What’s up with that?

Obviously my performance wouldn’t be as poor as the Dow's. It looks like mine is down about 3.1% for this week.

You have to have bonds or cash.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

wondering wrote:

Obviously my performance wouldn’t be as poor as the Dow's. It looks like mine is down about 3.1% for this week.

You have to have bonds or cash.

Of course. It’s called diversification.

Big Dog Investments wrote:

As one of the few on here who is not shy about publicizing my transactions, I offer the following:

2017 was a year devoted to selling and not buying for me. This continued into early 2018 to the point where my stock account was sitting at 50% cash. Today I decided to DIP back into buying mode and took home some PG, JNJ, and added to my XOM. That ate up about 25% of my cash reserves.

Have at me.

I have no problem with people taking profit. I had figured out long ago that I could cash out when the Dow hit 22,000, and that has proven to be true, but I have chosen not to just yet...and probably won't really...I'll just take distributions when I need them in retirement.

Everyone's situation is different -- depends on age, dependents, amount you have, goals, etc. I have nothing to criticize you over as I don't have enough information about your situation.

Racket wrote:

All I wanna know is should I start shorting ETFs and will it be like shorting mortgage backed securities in 2007

Seven or eight days ago.

People like Fagpole are intolerable. The “there is one right way to do things, and that is my way” crowd.

What a joke.

He would be all too glad to sit in judgment of you, according to his standards, if he had a little more info. What he utterly FAILS to understand is that different standards are possible.

By MY standards, he is a failure. I myself “retired” a while back, and I am his age. How? By being responsive and not stupidly mechanistic. In this past week we have one more example of him failing to capitalize on an all-too-obvious opportunity. Anybody who considers themselves an investor, and who didn’t short the markets or at least move to cash when they went literally parabolic over the last few weeks is a failure. You can talk buy-and-hold all you want, but I’m not even talking about just hedging—I mean, if you didn’t understand this, you don’t understand squat.

He is swept in the current of his own ego. I hope that he and i both live to see the day when all the institutions upon which he relies abandon him—US tax and social policy, SS, value of the USD, private property, etc..

It is already happening. Dollar index trending down, trade balance trending down, pensions re-negotiated, SS broke soon, soaring decicits, QE4 all ready to be deployed, MM funds bail-in’able with no notice, you name it.

The surest sign of weakness is when you have never heard a guy admit failure or even bad judgment, or incomplete knowledge or awareness. That is when you know that he is in fact using no judgment at all, and just parroting the retarded crap that he thinks is, and will always be, true.

I say this not because i care about Fagpole, but to present a counterpoint. BS like his needs to be met with a response. He may end up fine, but it will not be because he is his own man, or even in control at all.

I te-iterate: anybody who did not take advantage of market behavior before the drawdown is not doing as well as they could. And no, he doesn’t have enough that he doesn’t need to worry.

For a moment there I thought you were talking about Igy.

If the shoe fits wrote:

For a moment there I thought you were talking about Igy.

Really?

The opening sentence: "People like Flagpole are intolerable." wasn't clear enuff?

Dumass

1) Not sure why all the hate, brother.

2) I could retire today if I wanted...could have done it a couple years ago really.

3) I am not in competition with anyone about when I retire or how much I retire with, so weird for you to state that you are retired already and that that means you are better than me. Good for you if that's what you wanted. Congratulations.

4) As you don't know how much money I have, you don't know if I have enough that I don't need to worry or not. It's pretty easy to figure out...I have zero debt. I own a home outright that is worth ~$300,000. I have more money invested right now than I had ever dreamed I would have, and I had planned to have a lot. I also have almost 3 years of expenses saved in an MMA. I'm not going to say how much I have in retirement accounts, but assume SOMEONE had $6 million dollars in investments. If the market dropped 60%, that would leave $2.4 million. Let's assume then that at age 60 (the age I have long planned to retire -- not just for money's sake by just for how long I want to be retired for's sake). Let's assume the market never recovered and that I didn't put a penny in in my last 8 years of working. So, a person retiring at age 60 with 2.4 million dollars. Assume a retirement of 30 years. If the market never went up again, or better yet, if I took all that money out and just had it in cash, divided by 30, that is $80,000 per year, and that's just for the first 2 years. At age 62, I can get social security for me and my wife, and that's another at least $45,000 per year, so we're up to $125,000 per year (If I wait to take Social Security later on which would be easy to do, it would be even more). That is worst case scenario for someone who has $6 million followed by a 60% market drop that never recovers in 38 years and who never ever puts any money again in the market. It also doesn't count the 3 years of expenses I will have saved or the ~$100,000 difference I will pocket on the sale of my house and the purchase of another smaller cheaper one in another part of the country. So, that is an outrageously bad and completely unbelievable turn of events, and I would STILL be ok in that situation. I wouldn't even do it that way anyway. If for some reason at age 60 I had only $2.4 million dollars, I would likely keep that in the market and take 4% a year from it. At age 62, my SS would go up with inflation each year, but the retirement money would start at $96,000 a year, so when you add the $45,000 per year at age 62, that takes it to $141,000. This is still what I would consider worst-case scenario, and that is something that most people my age would LOVE to have at age 62, and they won't...that is if I have $6 million right now...and I will neither confirm nor deny that.

Schadenfreude wrote:

If the shoe fits wrote:

For a moment there I thought you were talking about Igy.

Really?

The opening sentence: "People like Flagpole are intolerable." wasn't clear enuff?

Dumass

Letsrun does not require you to sign your posts. Thanks anyway.

“ Dip-buyers now have 9% between here and the most offensive valuations in history. Downside is about -63% by my estimates. Remember how compounding works. Even after another -20% down, it would take yet another -54% loss to get to -63%. As in 2000, and 2007, not kidding here. “

-John Hussman, 2/10/2018