Down goes the Dow

Haven't read the who,e thread, so this may have b en said before.

If I look back to Oct 2007, the Dow was at a then high of 14,000. Then it started slipping. It was just a "correction" (Right? So people said that they would simply "ride it out"), but then it slipped some more and some more. Really, there was absolutely no public explanation until the summer of 2008 (when it was down to 12,000 points - the word was simply that banks were now tightening up their lending), then the slide continued. The real explanation came out in Sept/Oct 2008, when the gravity of the situation really came out (when the Dow went down to 8500 points), then it kept slipping some more until Mar 2009 and the low of 6600 points (when government intervention showed that it actually stopped the problem)

Long story short. It takes weeks/months before things are actually said. Something is clearly going on. I feel it with all my customers. (What? I don't know). We have felt a big slow down in the last 2 weeks from all our customers.

[quote]Maserati wrote:

Yup. But if you can position yourself to take advantage of opportunities, things are still exciting.

BTW i have avoided this drawdown as well, and this was the closest timing ever, i was only about 11 days early—yes after missing out on some rise.

You guys make awesome predictions after the event occurs

Not too swift wrote:

Really? If the market drops 60% like it did in 2008-2009 and you are 60% in equities and so lose 36% of your liquid investments this will not affect you?

How about like in 1929 when it was nearly a 90% drop? No problem for you.

You guys need to wake up

You have chosen an appropriate username.

Youse guys wrote:

You guys make awesome predictions after the event occurs

Hi, K5! At least your prediction at the start of the thread was before the event occurred. Of course, we're still waiting for you to be correct.

Gvyggbyggy wrote:

If I look back to Oct 2007, the Dow was at a then high of 14,000.

And those who didn’t panic and sat pat saw their investment go up 90%.

Don't listen to the news. It's a bunch of government cheerleading. Those at the big news papers and big tv networks have government sources. Their government sources would flip out if reporters told the entire truth. Net hiring at large NYSE broker/dealers is the key. From 4th quarter 2005, all the large NYSE broker/dealers were firing more financial advisors and analysts than they were hiring. This accelerated through 2007. We all know what happened next. Buy and hold during times like this is for youngsters and suckers. You've had nine and a half years to ride the equity wave. Sell some equities (not your entire equity portfolio) before they have no value. If you're under age 35, just keep dollar cost averaging.

Say Dow goes down to 13,000 or 8,000. That's a lot.

In 2007, the oldest baby boomers were 62 years old and a bunch were still working.

Now the oldest baby boomers are 73 years old and very few are still working.

If it falls that deep, the early baby boomers will not be able to overcome this drop this time around.

If it does fall that deep, it will fall over a period of 6 to 12 months. The lesson is that there is plenty of time to get out, but not months.

Vggvygyvgyggyg wrote:

Say Dow goes down to 13,000 or 8,000. That's a lot.

In 2007, the oldest baby boomers were 62 years old and a bunch were still working.

Now the oldest baby boomers are 73 years old and very few are still working.

If it falls that deep, the early baby boomers will not be able to overcome this drop this time around.

If it does fall that deep, it will fall over a period of 6 to 12 months. The lesson is that there is plenty of time to get out, but not months.

Relax. Don’t fall for the hype.

Frankie Goes to Hollywood wrote:

Relax. Don’t fall for the hype.

Ok, let's talk again in 12 months.

Vggvygyvgyggyg wrote:

Say Dow goes down to 13,000 or 8,000. That's a lot.

In 2007, the oldest baby boomers were 62 years old and a bunch were still working.

Now the oldest baby boomers are 73 years old and very few are still working.

If it falls that deep, the early baby boomers will not be able to overcome this drop this time around.

If it does fall that deep, it will fall over a period of 6 to 12 months. The lesson is that there is plenty of time to get out, but not months.

Dude, get a grip.

If you're in that line of business, then surly you must have a theory? Otherwise, anybody's guess is as good as your's. I say Hyperinflation! Of course, the Fed Reserve is always in the business of telling us the truth - so probably nothing to see here.

Gruntz wrote:

Vggvygyvgyggyg wrote:

Say Dow goes down to 13,000 or 8,000. That's a lot.

In 2007, the oldest baby boomers were 62 years old and a bunch were still working.

Now the oldest baby boomers are 73 years old and very few are still working.

If it falls that deep, the early baby boomers will not be able to overcome this drop this time around.

If it does fall that deep, it will fall over a period of 6 to 12 months. The lesson is that there is plenty of time to get out, but not months.

Dude, get a grip.

He got you nervous, huh?

Let's Get To The Bottom Of This wrote:

Gruntz wrote:

Dude, get a grip.

He got you nervous, huh?

Hardly. But he did give me a good laugh.

Mellon said buy the dip 3% ago, remain calm though. Look for high quality stocks. This to will pass. It is a buying opportunity.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Mellon said buy the dip 3% ago, remain calm though. Look for high quality stocks. This to will pass. It is a buying opportunity.

Agreed.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Mellon said buy the dip 3% ago, remain calm though. Look for high quality stocks. This to will pass. It is a buying opportunity.

How can you be so sure? 2 Trillion with a "T" gone from the S&P so far. Asian markets are collapsing right now - this is a global market meltdown. But the Fed Reserve says all is well & good - so nothing to see here. ?

Who can ya trust? wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Mellon said buy the dip 3% ago, remain calm though. Look for high quality stocks. This to will pass. It is a buying opportunity.

But the Fed Reserve says all is well & good - so nothing to see here. ?

Agreed.

Twenty-three more days like today and it'll all be over.

I got out on 21 Jan, retaining some small commodity positions like oil that i have held for a long time.

I posted as much on Friday after the 666-point drop. By even your standard, I get credit for having avoided Monday-Thursday inclusive.

I also said how I missed Tuesday’s gains, and how i just lost 1k on a position yesterday.

It also looks like I may have been wrong when I opined that this was not the big event...but so maybe was Icahn. If that turns out wrong, I have already owned the error.

Grow the F up.

3am and we just finished looking at the energy landscape. Lots of work, and I am sick, to boot.

There is no glee for me this time, just a grim resolve. Shlt lies ahead for many.