Down goes the Dow

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

MSFT hit a high PE of 57 at the Tech Bubble high in early 2000.

False.

Yes a hobby farm, it was an equestrian facility with pastures and very nice outbuildings. Unproductive land. Will be used for 2 wind turbines, and one of the outbuildings will be rented to a client business for an engineering project for a few years. Crops will include minor berries, turnips, etc; trees to include apples, native pears and plums, and nuts longer-term. Somebody wants to put a chicken coop on part of it. A bunch will be converted back to a natural state for wildlife.

It dropped 30% in price since i started looking at it 18 mos ago. Not real farming.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

U R Stupid,

Google debuted at a PE of $80.5. Never had a high PE for very long. Bad example.

Igy

It wasn’t an example. It was a suggestion for your lazy ass.

U. R. Stupid wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

U R Stupid,

Google debuted at a PE of $80.5. Never had a high PE for very long. Bad example.

Igy

It wasn’t an example. It was a suggestion for your lazy ass.

You were wrong. Never was overvalued from the beginning.

Earnings Scorecard: For Q4 2017 (with 50% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results for the quarter), 75% of S&P 500 companies have reported positive EPS surprises and 80% have reported positive sales surprises. If 80% is the final number for the quarter, it will mark the highest percentage since FactSet began tracking this metric in Q3 2008.

I got out a week-and-a-half ago when I found out that someone was selling a significant portion of their BRK-A holdings, and planning to buy it back at a later date. The guy has always seemed to know what he is doing, he is mid-80's now and has never made a bad call, and he is very loaded. Others in his circle have also been selling. He is part of the group that manages to do things before the retail clients do it too late, I am following his lead this time. Also trying to get in on some private placements that are going on, but that's a bit dicey.

So it is once again a waiting game. This time I bought high, and sold high, not a terrific outcome but too good to pass up in the short timeframe.

Maybe of interest to some of you, the big-time guys I know are selling significantly, but NONE of the women are. Take that FWIW.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

U. R. Stupid wrote:

It wasn’t an example. It was a suggestion for your lazy ass.

You were wrong. Never was overvalued from the beginning.

A suggestion cannot be wrong, moran.

The handle U R Stupid may lead someone to the wrong conclusion don’t you think?

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

The handle U R Stupid may lead someone to the wrong conclusion don’t you think?

Clearly he thinks you are stupid.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

MSFT hit a high PE of 57 at the Tech Bubble high in early 2000.

Actually their PE high exceeded 100 and with good reason.

Let’s see the data.

Looks like AMZN management is a bit anal: http://www.foxnews.com/food-drink/2018/02/02/whole-foods-employees-are-crying-over-stressful-new-workplace-rules-report-says.html

Don’t worry until your eyes move toward your ears.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Let’s see the data.

Here you go, along with an explanation as to why high PEs are not necessarily a bad thing. Took about 2” to find this using Google.

A good example is Microsoft (MSFT​). Several years ago, when the tech giant was growing rapidly and expanding into new markets, its P/E ratio was over 100. That meant that investors valued every $1 of annual earnings as $100 in the price of its shares. Today, Microsoft is one of the largest companies in the world, and is no longer considered a growth company. Its revenues and earnings capacity simply can't maintain the same growth as before and expectations have been moderated. As a result, its P/E had dropped to around 30 in 2017. This reduction in the P/E ratio is a common occurrence as high-growth startups solidify their reputations and turn into more stable blue chips. This doesn’t mean that Microsoft was overvalued in the past and is undervalued now. The P/E must always be considered relative to the company’s position in its life cycle and relative to its peers in the same industry and to the market as a whole. For example, newer companies with high growth prospects generally command very high P/E’s since their current earnings may be very small as they spend money to grow – but can become quite profitable in the future.

Your post supports my point, no company has maintained over a 100 PE through a full market cycle. The P comes down, rather than the E rising.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Seattle,

Or, more to the point, in 130 years of market history there has never been a company that has grown into a PE exceeding anywhere close to 100. I am not at my terminal but I assume AMZN is double that. That is what PEs do, it is called PE compression, where the P comes down to meet the E, not the other way around. Of course there is a small chance it can be that one out of 10,000s of stocks. Better chance than a lottery ticket. One is always better off investing in facts over the long run. My opinion of course.

Igy

Walking it back I see. No surprise there.

This article conflicts were your data. Let’s see the numbers.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets-economy/062416/assessing-asset-bubbles-microsoft-2001-vs-today-msft.asp

Chart of MSFT PE since 1996, so you got nuttin:

https://www.quora.com/When-Microsoft-went-public-what-was-the-P-E-ratio

J. Hardy wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Seattle,

Or, more to the point, in 130 years of market history there has never been a company that has grown into a PE exceeding anywhere close to 100. I am not at my terminal but I assume AMZN is double that. That is what PEs do, it is called PE compression, where the P comes down to meet the E, not the other way around. Of course there is a small chance it can be that one out of 10,000s of stocks. Better chance than a lottery ticket. One is always better off investing in facts over the long run. My opinion of course.

Igy

Walking it back I see. No surprise there.

So sorry JJ Hardy, or number 32 handle....