I know it's not the 60% drop you had hoped for, but I think it still warrants a mini "See I told you so".
I know it's not the 60% drop you had hoped for, but I think it still warrants a mini "See I told you so".
?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
?
Can you say "CREEPY"
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
I fully intend to reduce short term bonds in favor of equity over the completion of the market cycle.
The end of a cycle depends on where you mark the beginning. Are you referring to a cycle that ends at a top, a bottom, or some specific spot in between?
Buy stocks below S&P 1,200.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Buy stocks below S&P 1,200.
You wrote that you were buying through the end of the cycle. So it ended at S&P 1200?
OF course buy stocks below S&P 1200.
But the question is, do you actually think it's going there? No, really. In all seriousness, these things are usually discussed in terms of a probability. So what do you think is the probability that we see S&P 1200 within the next 18 mnths?
seattle prattle wrote:
OF course buy stocks below S&P 1200.
But the question is, do you actually think it's going there? No, really. In all seriousness, these things are usually discussed in terms of a probability. So what do you think is the probability that we see S&P 1200 within the next 18 mnths?
90%
J. Hardy wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Buy stocks below S&P 1,200.
You wrote that you were buying through the end of the cycle. So it ended at S&P 1200?
No. Plenty of evidence the cycle is mature. Second longest economic recovery in history, based in large part on massive central bank liquidity. Last two market peaks saw 54% and 59% drops to S&P 500. Just in case you get confidence thinking this will be longest recovery, just remember the NASDAQ Composite dropped 83% from the 2000 high and did not reach a new sustainable high until spring 2016. Of course one can believe none of this matters. OK.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
J. Hardy wrote:
You wrote that you were buying through the end of the cycle. So it ended at S&P 1200?
No. Plenty of evidence the cycle is mature. Second longest economic recovery in history, based in large part on massive central bank liquidity. Last two market peaks saw 54% and 59% drops to S&P 500. Just in case you get confidence thinking this will be longest recovery, just remember the NASDAQ Composite dropped 83% from the 2000 high and did not reach a new sustainable high until spring 2016. Of course one can believe none of this matters. OK.
One should also remember that the market has more than doubled since before the last bottom.
That is true. How will you feel when your portfolio returns to 1998 levels?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
That is true. How will you feel when your portfolio returns to 1998 levels?
Thanks, partner. Now i'm going to have nightmares that i'm an uber driver milking my rides for stock tips. You happy? Is that the brand of fear and loathing you're peddling?
Not at all. Do you find it more reassuring to believe in something that is not supported facts? Listen, on a variety of metrics the market has only traded at a richer valuation one time in history. A very simple fact is, the more you pay for an investment, the lower your return. So actually you are already taking the Uber driver’s advice from the stock peddlers that have the most to gain. The business is driven by the meme that there is never a time not to buy stocks. Something that is just not true. I have zero to gain by changing your or anyone else’s view. You have your truth, and I have my truth.
mellon wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
The mellon ouija board delivers the answer.
You sound angry!
You sound stupid
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
How will you feel when your portfolio returns to 1998 levels?
Probably about as bad as your clients feel for not being in an aggressive heavy in equities allocation for the past 3 years, and being moved to a more conservative allocation today.
I agree, you might as well wait for S&P 1200 now. They missed out.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
J. Hardy wrote:
You wrote that you were buying through the end of the cycle. So it ended at S&P 1200?
No. Plenty of evidence the cycle is mature. Second longest economic recovery in history, based in large part on massive central bank liquidity. Last two market peaks saw 54% and 59% drops to S&P 500. Just in case you get confidence thinking this will be longest recovery, just remember the NASDAQ Composite dropped 83% from the 2000 high and did not reach a new sustainable high until spring 2016. Of course one can believe none of this matters. OK.
I agree that this is a mature market. So, why are you buying equities for your retirees?
Please point out where I said that.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Not at all. Do you find it more reassuring to believe in something that is not supported facts? Listen, on a variety of metrics the market has only traded at a richer valuation one time in history. A very simple fact is, the more you pay for an investment, the lower your return. So actually you are already taking the Uber driver’s advice from the stock peddlers that have the most to gain. The business is driven by the meme that there is never a time not to buy stocks. Something that is just not true. I have zero to gain by changing your or anyone else’s view. You have your truth, and I have my truth.
You can compare current valuation to past valuation, but what is not the same is the current economic backdrop, which is very favorable both in the US and internationally. Tax overhauls, a solid growth forecast, etc. are what got us to this level. While it's useful to keep this in context, the specifics are not the same.
I wouldn't be surprised by a modest correction, but i don't see a meltdown in the order of magnitude your siting.
That is the consensus view.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
That is the consensus view.
I wonder why!!
And I guess you are smarter than most?