La gente is on fire today. LOL!
La gente is on fire today. LOL!
The Dow has quadrupled in value since March 2009.
What’s the problem again?
I suppose that is fine if you believe there is no end game to the “fake markets” created by global central banks.
It’s fine even if you do believe that.
OK, do you believe you will be the exception, the one that navigates the market so the “pig gets fat, before the hog is slaughtered?”
Yeah, sure. Really glad i'm not the one that missed out on this run up, though.
OK, tells us later how your Seattle prattle becomes Olympia wooden nickels.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
OK, do you believe you will be the exception, the one that navigates the market so the “pig gets fat, before the hog is slaughtered?”
That’s not really the exception. Even if you led everything to chance, the probability is 0.5 that you’d make money. Since it’s not left to chance, the actual probability is higher as history tells us.
You need to work on your analogies.
You will be disappointed when you juxtapose your probability against market history.
Your choice.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
You will be disappointed when you juxtapose your probability against market history.
Your choice.
Actually market history supports my numbers.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
I suppose that is fine if you believe there is no end game
Nobody is saying there isn't an end game.
It just didn't happen 3 years, 2 years, 1 year, 6 mos, 1 mo ago as you suggested it would.
Maserati wrote:
LOL
I got back into US equities, in a diversified way, back when I was asking about it on here...and have already seen gains that I feel are significant. By significant, I'm not talking on a percentage basis, but on a realize-able value basis--that is, if I got out now, how long could I live off the gains.
These markets are insane. You all know that I feel, and have variously shown, that much if not all of the published data are ridiculous--either outright fraudulent (before revision), cooked (calculated differently), or just plain obfuscation (cherry-picking and lack of contextual explanation)--and that I have also opined that as far as price levels are concerned in things like equities, it just doesn't matter. I have put some of my money where my mouth is, and I must say that the Kool-Aid is on tap.
Just when you think that something like the tax bill was priced-in, wham--it gets priced-in all over again.
These markets prove that ignorance is truly bliss.
I will be honest, I am as nervous as fvck. I believe in what I have said, but it makes me nervous to effectively bet on the prospect that people will pay good money to ride a unicorn.
Nervously watching,
Mas
I've been thinking lately about your prediction of some kind of massive infrastructure problem being a potential black swan. I'm coming around to your point of view. A focused cyber attack on the US and allies could do some very bad damage - and it seems to be almost inevitable at some point.
Bogle recommends a buy-and-hold strategy, but only sort of. His strategy of buying low cost indexed funds is a great strategy for the rube who doesn't know what they are doing. Over all, this is better than doing nothing at all, or putting all your money in cash, or trying to time the market. But, even Warren Buffet doesn't follow this advise. If he did, he would lay off most of his staff that makes intelligent buys. Warren Buffet says he is not good at timing the market, which he isn't, and maybe no one else is, but, he doesn't chase success either. Generally he buys undervalued stocks. That is a far cry from a buy-and-hold strategy. He is also good at mitigating risk.
So, if you adopt a blind buy-and-hold strategy, you are admitting you are a rube.
It wasn’t really a prediction, rather an illustration of one thing that could really screw things up.
The biggie is a coordinated attack that spoofs not only equities but currencies, and that removes the circuit breakers. Vastly more damage could be done while markets are operating.
But as i said before, everybody who matters is in, with the possible exception of a couple of Russians, and that is the single most important quality of today’s equity markets. The Chinese and Japanese are all in. The Swiss, the Euros, and the Commonwealth are all in. The Mideast is all in, and those who weren’t are being killed, tortured, and extorted. The UK is 100% in. Africa and South America don’t matter.
Cracks are appearing with Russia-China-Iran-etc cooperation, but as yet they are very limited, and are just trial balloons. It is now from certain Russians and Chinese that I take my cues for action, because they are now the ones with their hands on the levers. They are the only ones who can, and might, benefit from destabilizing action that they can effect. Do as they do, and you will be ok.
They are mostly all-in at the moment, and they can be opaque and are certainly intentionally obfuscatory, so it is a difficult task.
[quote]Maserati wrote:
"They are mostly all-in at the moment, and they can be opaque and are certainly intentionally obfuscatory, so it is a difficult task."
Worst sentence of the day?
Worst wrote:
Worst sentence of the day?
Oh, the irony!
mellon wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
I suppose that is fine if you believe there is no end game
Nobody is saying there isn't an end game.
It just didn't happen 3 years, 2 years, 1 year, 6 mos, 1 mo ago as you suggested it would.
Mellon,
Please provide the quote where I said anything would “happen.” Please provide the quote where I said to sell all stocks and go to cash.
My point is and has always been the market is overvalued by historical standards and adjust your allocation to fit your risk tolerance and time horizon. I have never said or advised anyone to be out of the market.
In a Bear Market stock correlations go to one, and there is no benefit from diversification by country, capitalization or sector. So the only advantage an investor has is to reduce risk as the market rises. So whether it is three months or three years if you do not reduce your allocation to stocks you will not fare well in the next downturn. The market gains for most will be wiped out.
I have no real reason not to wish you well. I just believe your view is naive and delusional, and will be colored differently as we reach full cycle.
But good luck to you, I hope my characterization of your posts is wrong.
Igy
https://money.usnews.com/investing/articles/2016-09-07/why-warren-buffett-loves-buy-and-hold-stocksJack Bogle's great great great great grandson wrote:
Bogle recommends a buy-and-hold strategy, but only sort of. His strategy of buying low cost indexed funds is a great strategy for the rube who doesn't know what they are doing. Over all, this is better than doing nothing at all, or putting all your money in cash, or trying to time the market. But, even Warren Buffet doesn't follow this advise. If he did, he would lay off most of his staff that makes intelligent buys. Warren Buffet says he is not good at timing the market, which he isn't, and maybe no one else is, but, he doesn't chase success either. Generally he buys undervalued stocks. That is a far cry from a buy-and-hold strategy. He is also good at mitigating risk.
So, if you adopt a blind buy-and-hold strategy, you are admitting you are a rube.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
mellon wrote:
Nobody is saying there isn't an end game.
It just didn't happen 3 years, 2 years, 1 year, 6 mos, 1 mo ago as you suggested it would.
Mellon,
Please provide the quote where I said to sell all stocks and go to cash.
Igy
Igy,
Please provide the quote where mellon suggested you said that.
Townes
Several times, not going to play that game. Answer me first, or pipe it.