Renato, I enjoyed reading the article about your predictions for the World Championships and have some questions:
1. Bekele, as great as he is, will have a challenge in the 10,000m. His teammate Sileshi Sihine ran 26:57 this year as was very upset. He can eventually challenge for the WR. He has the #4 time ever in the 5,000 with 12:47 and may be the most underrated runner out there today.
He outkicked Gebrselassie last year in 26:39 and ran the last 100 meters in 12 seconds in that race. He has a great kick and the margin of victory for Bekele last year in Athens was large (4 seconds) only because when Sihine saw he would not catch him he eased off at the end.
I think if Sihine comes in PR shape (he ran 26:57 2 months ago and has good training since) he can win with the right tactics. He is as aerobically strong as Bekele is; the only question is if he can remain with him in the last 200m.
Watching him and Bekele racing, Sihine has a much easier looking stride. His leg does not kick up as high and he has a long stride merely based on the strength with which he pushed off the ground. Bekele has such a gigantic, fast stride that it is difficult to see where he can open it up. It already looks like he is sprinting throughout most of a 5,000m race.
I agree that he is the favorite but I do not think others can be discounted so quickly. Sihine is there and Dinkessa was very close to him earlier in the year.
2. Where is your runner Nicholas Kemboi? A phenomenal talent, one of the top 5 ever with 26:30 and he nearly beat Gebrselassie 2 years ago. But since then we have heard nothing of him and he is not on the WC team. Will he race again and what has happened to him?
3. I'm not sure why Songkok is the 5K favorite. He has very good speed but will be racing Gebremariam, Bekele, Kipchoge, and Chebii. Craig Mottram has also beaten him. He has a 3:30 1500 but Mottram just ran a 3:48 mile and Songkok is no stronger than any of the others. Bekele ran 12:40 this year and there is no chance Songkok can run that fast right now.
If it is a 13:00 race Bekele will be feeling much stronger (that is far off his PB) compared to Songkok who is still new at 5,000.
Bekele also ran a 200 during his 5K win in Lausanne 2 years ago in 23-point. He has AMAZING finishing speed and can outkick Songkok depending on the pace.
4. I am surprised Ezekiel Kemboi is named as a favorite because he has raced poorly this year. Shaheen will win easily but I hope to see him in the 5K as well. That would be a great double.
Sileshi Sihine is underrated but so are John Kibowen and Laban Rotich. They both ran 3:47 in the Oslo Dream Mile behind El Guerrouj but rarely get credit. Kibowen is 36 and still winning Golden League 5,000's.
Renato, do you have the training of Ngaya used to run 3:47?
You wrote on an earlier page that you discourage someone with a slower PR--say 17 minutes for 5,000--running a lot of mileage. But how else can someone become fast except by increasing training?
dunes runner wrote:
Run more at race pace.
It's the middle of July. For a HS runner looking to improve, running at race pace right now would be disastrous.
As Lance Armstrong's coach Chris Carmichael said, you need to build the engine first. Speedwork is not a "base." The aerobic fitness alone must chronologically come first and that by itself should make race times faster.
I think you overanalyzed things a bit there, and WAY overhyped Sihine. Lets look at the FACTS:
* Sihine was upset when he ran 26:57 because he said he was going to make an attempt at the WR. Yeah, when you say that and miss it by NEARLY 40 seconds, then yeah, you probably SHOULD BE upset.
* Bekele is 30 seconds faster then Sihine this year at 10k and has a PR that is nearly 20 seconds faster than Sihine. And at 5k, Bekele is 10 seconds faster than Sihine. All those comparisons do not bode well for Mr Sihine.
* If Sihine is in such great shape this year, WHY IS HE NOT RUNNING MORE RACES??? What else has he done besides that mediocre (for him) 26:57 ?
* margins of victory in WC's 10k and Olympic 10k that last two years were NOT EVEN CLOSE between Bekele and Sihine. Bekele absolutely ran away from him, like he was standing still.
* Your stride analysis is rather strange. Yes, Bekele does indeed look like he is "sprinting" the whole way already. But somehow that does not seem to hurt him when he needs to churn out a final 52/53 lap. And why would a "long stride" where one does not "kick up as high" translate into having a great kick later in the race?? Sounds like you are describing the stride of an Alan Culpepper or some other tall distance runner with tons of endurance but without lots of natural great speed. IN short, by looking at their strides, my conclusion would be the opposite of yours: maybe at a marathon, Sihine's less powerful, more efficient/grounded stride might win the day over Bekele, but NOT in a kick on a track race.
Sihine is not in Bekele's league yet. Maybe someday.
I think you overanalyzed things a bit there, and WAY overhyped Sihine. Lets look at the FACTS:
* Sihine was upset when he ran 26:57 because he said he was going to make an attempt at the WR. Yeah, when you say that and miss it by NEARLY 40 seconds, then yeah, you probably SHOULD BE upset.
He ran the 10K in Prague. Have you ever HEARD of Prague being a high class meet? He was the only big name there, the pacemakers screwed it up for him early so he was left out in the cold for a lot longer than he should have been, and I also seem to remember that it was raining.
You toss in a few 66-67 second laps and he will subconsciously ease off knowing he's not going to get the record.
This is a guy who ran his last 500 in 1:10 last year and in 2003 also ran his 2nd 5K in 13:10, again easing off once Gebrselassie and Bekele ran away from him.
* Bekele is 30 seconds faster then Sihine this year at 10k and has a PR that is nearly 20 seconds faster than Sihine. And at 5k, Bekele is 10 seconds faster than Sihine. All those comparisons do not bode well for Mr Sihine.
Again, Bekele ran a highly competitive 10K in a great meet, Hengelo, with Dinkessa clipping his heels the whole way.
Sihine ran in a bad meet in the rain with no competition and bad pacemaking. As for Sihine's PB, Dinkessa came from nowhere to run 26:30. So did Renato's runner Kemboi when he ran 26:30. I am certain in good conditions with good competition Sihine would destroy his PB and run close to or under the WR. It seems you didn't see his 26:39. He looked extremely relaxed just following Geb. It was another WR attempt that fell off due to bad pacemaking. MAny pacemakers simply cannot go very long at 63 per lap, so Sihine's best chance at getting the WR is in a race with Bekele, Dinkessa, or Gebremariam. He ran his last 100 in that race in 12 seconds. You're not running at maximal capacity if you can finish that fast.
* If Sihine is in such great shape this year, WHY IS HE NOT RUNNING MORE RACES??? What else has he done besides that mediocre (for him) 26:57 ?
Because he's training. He got the evaluation of his fitness he wanted, was disappointed, and has no need of more races because he can return to Ethiopia and get all the testing of his shape he needs following Bekele around the track at 8,000 feet.
Remember, these guys last year did a 7K time trial passing through 5K in 13:22! That's at 8,000 feet. Why would you need a European race to tell you you are in shape when you can do workouts like that. It's the same reason Bekele did not run Oslo and Rome even though he would probably have easily won the Million dollar Jackpot; Kostre wants those guys together making a strong push for Helsinki.
* margins of victory in WC's 10k and Olympic 10k that last two years were NOT EVEN CLOSE between Bekele and Sihine. Bekele absolutely ran away from him, like he was standing still.
In 2003 he was not the same runner he is today. In 2003 his 5K PB was 13:06, so running the 26:58 and 27:01 that he did was remarkable for someone with that 5,000 time.
He crushed Bekele at the Ethiopian 5K running 13:35 to his 13:47. That makes him one of 3 athletes ever (Geneti and Chebii the other 2) to beat both Bekele and Gebrselassie.
In Athens, again, watch the race. Bekele took off and immediately opened a gap down the straight. Sihine saw he was not coming back and so ran in strongly but not all-out. Had he really chased Bekele strongly it would have been closer. You underestimate the guy. See what happens at Helsinki if he is healthy and fit.
There are very few athletes in the world who can, off 27 minute pace, take off and run 1:06 for the last 500. Sihine has a year more of training behind him and a better chance to respond to that tactic if Bekele uses it.
* Your stride analysis is rather strange. Yes, Bekele does indeed look like he is "sprinting" the whole way already. But somehow that does not seem to hurt him when he needs to churn out a final 52/53 lap. And why would a "long stride" where one does not "kick up as high" translate into having a great kick later in the race?? Sounds like you are describing the stride of an Alan Culpepper or some other tall distance runner with tons of endurance but without lots of natural great speed. IN short, by looking at their strides, my conclusion would be the opposite of yours: maybe at a marathon, Sihine's less powerful, more efficient/grounded stride might win the day over Bekele, but NOT in a kick on a track race.
Because he can keep the same speed as Bekele without using his full range of motion. If Bekele runs at 61 per lap kicking himself in the back, eating up ground, and really using his full range of motion, it seems like he is nearly maxed out. Even if he gets faster there is not much more he can do with that stride. It's about as long and fast as it will get.
Sihine on the other hand has a more clipped, lesser stride that CAN be expanded with more training. He can open it up and get faster. Of course this is hypothetical, but it's merely an observation about potential. in absolute terms (# of seconds) I think Sihine can improve more than Bekele by a ways.
Sihine is not in Bekele's league yet. Maybe someday.
He said he's trying to beat him. He has once before and he's the next best these days at 10,000. If anyone can beat him, it's Sihine.
I will not take the time to answer all your counterpoints (there are just too many), but let's leave it at this:
Sihine is great no doubt, but he has YET to prove himself to be in Bekele's league, PERIOD. He can say all he wants, and predict all he wants, and you can make excuses for him all you want, and make analyses all you want, and claim that he ran X time for the final 100 of this race and X time for the final 500 of that race, but until he beats Bekele in a big race, or runs as fast as Bekele, he just ain't there yet. Beating him in one low key race in Ethiopia a few years back is something, but not that much. How many times has Bekele beaten Sihine on the track and in X-C? Dozens?? Probably something close to that.
So.......Bekele will easily outkick him again, and you will say what this time? Sihine "eased off" again and that is why the margin was not close? Or will it be that Sihine was hurt or "not fit" ? Sihine is one of the greatest runners on the planet. But Bekele is the GREATEST EVER (in my book, and in many others). You don't see unseat the Greatest Ever unless you kick his butt a few times and break his records (as Bekele did to Geb). Talk is cheap.
As Lance Armstrong's coach Chris Carmichael said, you need to build the engine first. Speedwork is not a "base." The aerobic fitness alone must chronologically come first and that by itself should make race times faster.
Where do you see that I said to do speedwork?
I didn't say anything about speedwork, one way or the other.
Your message is bass-akwards.
First you said to not run more at race pace, than you quote Carmichael saying basically the same thing that I did.
Another reason why, if Wejo really does shut down letsrun, Renato's the guy I'll miss.
I guess the jos did not shut it down.
Interesting to see that Canova was posting back then, and still posts a lot. I also get some insights of his trainingsystem from listening to a Norwegian podcast where an amateur (2:21 marathon) goes to Iten to train with Moen and Canova, even if the focus in these discussion obviously is on half and full marathon and not 800 meters as in this old post.
Another reason why, if Wejo really does shut down letsrun, Renato's the guy I'll miss.
I guess the jos did not shut it down.
Interesting to see that Canova was posting back then, and still posts a lot. I also get some insights of his trainingsystem from listening to a Norwegian podcast where an amateur (2:21 marathon) goes to Iten to train with Moen and Canova, even if the focus in these discussion obviously is on half and full marathon and not 800 meters as in this old post.
The runner that i coach and that did 13:36 with a full time Job occupatioon (7 hours a day – 5 times a week) that´s Rui Lopes. The name may not say noting to you, but the moment that he did that and what did keep my attention and I did try to analyse that´s why with 40-45min continuous runs every day and 1 “weak” workout as Control test once a week (Ex: 4X1000m 2:50-2:52 average 4 min intervals).
Thus that´s very easy to remember his weekly traning schedule
Monday,Tuesday, Thurday and Friday – 40-45min continuous runs going a few times in 3:10 by kilo.
Wednesday – 30min warmup + 4-5X1000m in 2:50-2:52 avarege range with 4min intervals
Saturday and Sunday (if ther´s no weekend competition) – the same 40-45min.
If thare´s a weekend competition – Saturday: 20min easy and Sunday – competition.
I asked to myself – if he is not able to run faster that that in workouts (2:50/kilo that´s 14:10 5000m pace) then why he did 13:36? We were in the early 80s and I didn´t know yet what are LT runs, but it took my attention that the runner did every 45min very fast than their teammates – his continuous runs weren´t easy jogs, but tempo runs.
The history of that run is that he got a good team contract change from my advise to another coach he did start training twice a week and more training volume, more track workouts. Result: Actually he is a 47 years old man, but his PB still remains 13:36 !
In my analyse as his coach I did get 2 conclusions:
1/sometimes times “less” is better. Some volume trainings are megalomaniacs according the runner talent.
2/while training LT runs very frequently you reach your top too early to soon, but after that ther´s the risk that your progression ends there, after a couple of seasons. Thus even Lt training that must be done with precaution.
Um interesting story. However, I cannot find any record anywhere of a Portuguese runner named Rui Lopes who ran 13'36" for 5000m. Do any of the old tymers on letsrun know of a Rui Lopes who ran a 13'36" for 5000m maybe in the 1980s? Or is this something about as real and authentic as Antonio Cabral's self proclaimed 3'39" 1500m PR?
The runner that i coach and that did 13:36 with a full time Job occupatioon (7 hours a day – 5 times a week) that´s Rui Lopes. The name may not say noting to you, but the moment that he did that and what did keep my attention and I did try to analyse that´s why with 40-45min continuous runs every day and 1 “weak” workout as Control test once a week (Ex: 4X1000m 2:50-2:52 average 4 min intervals).
Thus that´s very easy to remember his weekly traning schedule
Monday,Tuesday, Thurday and Friday – 40-45min continuous runs going a few times in 3:10 by kilo.
Wednesday – 30min warmup + 4-5X1000m in 2:50-2:52 avarege range with 4min intervals
Saturday and Sunday (if ther´s no weekend competition) – the same 40-45min.
If thare´s a weekend competition – Saturday: 20min easy and Sunday – competition.
I asked to myself – if he is not able to run faster that that in workouts (2:50/kilo that´s 14:10 5000m pace) then why he did 13:36? We were in the early 80s and I didn´t know yet what are LT runs, but it took my attention that the runner did every 45min very fast than their teammates – his continuous runs weren´t easy jogs, but tempo runs.
The history of that run is that he got a good team contract change from my advise to another coach he did start training twice a week and more training volume, more track workouts. Result: Actually he is a 47 years old man, but his PB still remains 13:36 !
In my analyse as his coach I did get 2 conclusions:
1/sometimes times “less” is better. Some volume trainings are megalomaniacs according the runner talent.
2/while training LT runs very frequently you reach your top too early to soon, but after that ther´s the risk that your progression ends there, after a couple of seasons. Thus even Lt training that must be done with precaution.
Um interesting story. However, I cannot find any record anywhere of a Portuguese runner named Rui Lopes who ran 13'36" for 5000m. Do any of the old tymers on letsrun know of a Rui Lopes who ran a 13'36" for 5000m maybe in the 1980s? Or is this something about as real and authentic as Antonio Cabral's self proclaimed 3'39" 1500m PR?
You can't find the record anywhere?
You mean you went through Portuguese newspapers from the 80s looking for it?
Or did you talk to Portuguese running record keepers/historians?
Um interesting story. However, I cannot find any record anywhere of a Portuguese runner named Rui Lopes who ran 13'36" for 5000m. Do any of the old tymers on letsrun know of a Rui Lopes who ran a 13'36" for 5000m maybe in the 1980s? Or is this something about as real and authentic as Antonio Cabral's self proclaimed 3'39" 1500m PR?
You can't find the record anywhere?
You mean you went through Portuguese newspapers from the 80s looking for it?
Or did you talk to Portuguese running record keepers/historians?
No I cannot find any independent source for a Rui Lopes who ran 13'36" for 5000m. The most definitive source is the Portuguese all time rankings list from their federation website if you type this address into your Internet browser:
you will see the all-time rankings for 5000m which go down to 13'41" and they list times going back to the 1970s (Mamede etc). I don't see any reason why a Rui Lopes should not be listed there if the performance really happened. If you have an independant source I would be interested to know.
You wrote on an earlier page that you discourage someone with a slower PR--say 17 minutes for 5,000--running a lot of mileage. But how else can someone become fast except by increasing training?
dunes runner wrote:
Run more at race pace.
It's the middle of July. For a HS runner looking to improve, running at race pace right now would be disastrous.
As Lance Armstrong's coach Chris Carmichael said, you need to build the engine first. Speedwork is not a "base." The aerobic fitness alone must chronologically come first and that by itself should make race times faster.
This old understanding of what ' perfect training' should be is a big false statement.Why? Toprunners of today use faster running year around.
The very best way to reach individual top performance is more a question of building both anaerob and aerob capacity parallell.