You and Flagpole both seem very confident in your predictions.
Will you guys put your posting here on the line? Loser leaves town and no longer posts on LRC?
No, I will not do that, because that is betting, and I do not bet because it is low class.
I've already put "my" prediction on the line. I put "my" in quotes because it's not really my prediction. It is the answer of who will win the race by the model described in The 13 Keys to the White House. It IS by far the best predictor we have.
I'm satisfied with the fact that Harris will win...because she is going to. I'm a VERY little bit satisfied with the fact that those of you who are poll watchers and then some Trumpers will learn a thing or two when Harris wins....knowing of course that most of the Trumpers are incapable of learning anything.
Harris is going to win. I will be shown to be right (I mean, of course I will). That's good enough for me.
Coward.
It seems you are not as confident in your prediction as your posts indicate.
You and Flagpole both seem very confident in your predictions.
Will you guys put your posting here on the line? Loser leaves town and no longer posts on LRC?
They’ve both been wildly wrong before and they are both still here contributing nothing.
I have never been wrong about a Presidential election pick...no, not even in 2016, because I said Trump couldn't cheat, and then he did.
The only really big political thing I can think of that I was every wrong about was that I said Brett Kavanaugh would not be confirmed. Well, while I WAS wrong about that (I didn't give an caveats), it appears now that NO investigation was really done about all the accusations against him at the time. Just more Trump Administration corruption.
We'll see who contributes nothing. Most of you aren't picking a winner in this election at all. Not only have I said Harris WILL win, not MIGHT win or COULD win, but WILL win, but I have picked the range of EC votes to be between 303-319.
In the 2020 election, not only did I correctly pick Biden as the winner, but I got every state right except Florida. Pretty damn good if you ask me.
No, I will not do that, because that is betting, and I do not bet because it is low class.
I've already put "my" prediction on the line. I put "my" in quotes because it's not really my prediction. It is the answer of who will win the race by the model described in The 13 Keys to the White House. It IS by far the best predictor we have.
I'm satisfied with the fact that Harris will win...because she is going to. I'm a VERY little bit satisfied with the fact that those of you who are poll watchers and then some Trumpers will learn a thing or two when Harris wins....knowing of course that most of the Trumpers are incapable of learning anything.
Harris is going to win. I will be shown to be right (I mean, of course I will). That's good enough for me.
Coward.
It seems you are not as confident in your prediction as your posts indicate.
Ghost?
Someone who doesn't bet is a coward? BS. Betting is low class. I don't do low class things.
Who is YOUR pick to win? Are you a coward for not saying so and then making a bet that you are right?
My punishment if I am wrong (I'm not) is that I will face ridicule here. Cowards don't offer themselves up like that.
Not because I'm gaga for Trump, or because of misogynoire, or because of her past or proposed policies.
I want her to lose, and lose badly, because on her behalf an entire political regime has unleashed a level of vitriol against black men that I've never… pic.twitter.com/evMGAY6x9Y
"She's off [the campaign trail today]? I can't get over it. Who the hell takes off when you have 14 days left She's lazy as hell. She's got that reputation."
Any of you, it would be the highlight of your life to meet Trump. Who could say the same for Kamala? She is low impact, low intellect and low class.
Um...NOPE! Holy crap, I hope to NEVER meet that Orange POS. I've met a TON of people who would be WAY ahead of Trump if I ever had the displeasure to meet him.
In no particular oder:
Brad Gillis (he sat in with a band I was in)
Pinetop Perkins (he sat in with the same band I was in as Brad Gillis did)
Tony Fauci (my wife worked for him once upon a time...a GREAT man)
Fred Rogers (he is one of my personal heroes, and I met him when he was at a Christian conference I was at when I was 14)
Pete Rose (I was a sports reporter during the 1989 season when he was under fire for betting on baseball)
All other Reds I individually met in that 1989 season: Paul O'Neill, Kent Tekulve, Chris Sabo, Eric Davis, Ron Oester
Ken Griffey Sr., though I only knew him as Ken Griffey at the time, when I got his autograph at a book signing when I was a kid in 1976
Butch Reynolds (interviewed him as a reporter in 1989 and then met him again in the early 2000s
Bill Shoemaker (interviewed this great jockey when I was a reporter)
I'm probably missing a few, but that's good enough for now.
That person has a very different idea wbout what DYING laughing than I do. Half hearted chuckles is what I heard...and those are from people who love this guy.
I get where you are coming from. It is comforting to believe we have checks and balances that will prevent Trump from executing his retribution. But we saw in Trump 1.0 that all those guardrails were fired and are now demonized by Trump. We were very close to very bad things happening but a few people with integrity in the GOP stepped up.
And Trump has surrounded himself with people much smarter than him. Project 2025 and Agenda 47 outline the importance of removing any non-loyal civil servants that may impede Trump in his wishes. So you are either banking on Trump being truthful and having nothing to do with Project 2025 or you are banking on incompetence being our savior again.
Why roll the dice that way? Send Trump out to pasture.
If Trump literally tries to become a dictator do you really think people will sit on their hands and let that happen?
Abso-freaking-lutely!
The Supreme Court has said that Trump (or any President) can do ANYTHING if it falls under official duties. Trump will try everything he can to stay in power by saying it is "official duties", and he would have people in place including judges who would back him. This is not a risk to take.
Are you pretending you haven't seen the Democrats weaponize the federal government against their political opponents?
Trumps legal problems are because Trump is a criminal. 95% of the incredibly damning evidence and testimony comes from Republicans and those that worked closest to Trump.
And I am not naive enough to believe any Trumper would ever read that evidence. But anyone that reads the evidence against Trump knows exactly who Trump is. And why he should never be given power and immunity to crime again.
“I’m telling you, Brandon Johnson, from my heart to yours: Trump 2024.” —Chicago residents CALLS OUT Mayor Brendon Johnson and local leaders over excessive spending on illegal migrants.
“You’re running the city into the ground. We asked you over and over again to stop with the… pic.twitter.com/ygZFuS1KcW
I have a question. The judge presiding over Trump's trial where the jury came back with a guilty verdict - isn't he a Democrat?
Why has the judge never imposed a sentence which would make Trump a convicted felon? And couldn't he impose a sentence now and have Trump locked up?
1) Trump is a convicted felon. Your thoughts on this are incorrect.
2) The judge did the most fair thing ever and pushed sentencing to AFTER the election. While I certainly wanted to see Trump sentenced earlier, I do believe this is a better choice. It IS a fairness that is NOT afforded the average citizen though, so in that way it is a little disgusting; however, it unshackles the judge regarding giving him a HUGE punishment as it could have been seen (I still say wrongly) as politically motivated had he done it before the election. Trump will be sentenced for his felony convictions on November 26. At that time, not only will he no longer be a candidate for President, but he will have lost the election.
No, I will not do that, because that is betting, and I do not bet because it is low class.
I've already put "my" prediction on the line. I put "my" in quotes because it's not really my prediction. It is the answer of who will win the race by the model described in The 13 Keys to the White House. It IS by far the best predictor we have.
I'm satisfied with the fact that Harris will win...because she is going to. I'm a VERY little bit satisfied with the fact that those of you who are poll watchers and then some Trumpers will learn a thing or two when Harris wins....knowing of course that most of the Trumpers are incapable of learning anything.
Harris is going to win. I will be shown to be right (I mean, of course I will). That's good enough for me.
Coward.
It seems you are not as confident in your prediction as your posts indicate.
Ghost?
My prediction is 296 EV for Trump. I have posted that several times and placed several bets on Bovada.
Furthermore, I bet on Bernie Moreno to win the Senate seat in Ohio. Flagpole will have a double loss on election night!
I want Flagpole to congratulate me with a post when Trump wins and then proclaim that I'm a better presidential predictor than he is.
If I lose, I will congratulate Flagpole and admit he's a better POTUS predictor than me.
That's my new bet. He won't agree to it.
This post was edited 3 minutes after it was posted.
I have a question. The judge presiding over Trump's trial where the jury came back with a guilty verdict - isn't he a Democrat?
Why has the judge never imposed a sentence which would make Trump a convicted felon? And couldn't he impose a sentence now and have Trump locked up?
They delayed the sentencing due to the immunity ruling. Since they never specified a second law he broke and since many of the witnesses who were called were employees functioning in their official capacity, it is impossible to know if the mysterious second crime (never identified by either the prosecutor or the judge who gave broad instructions) that elevated misdemeanors past the statute of limitations to felonies could be determined to have occurred as part of his official capacity. As such the conviction from this politically motivated show trial should be vacated.
Um...no.
1) The second crime IS necessary to elevate those crimes to felonies, you got that right.
2) The statue of limitations was not a thing because these were determined to be continuing crimes. These weren't one-off crimes that were charged in time.
3) None of those felonies could have occurred as part of his official capacity...not the first crime, not the second crime.
4) It will not be vacated. Trump is a criminal. Other than perhaps one or two of those 34 felonies, they will stand under appeal. He will be sentenced. AND, he's got two more indictments to face, a likely 3rd that will come back and then possibly more after that. Once he loses the election (and he will) no one will give a sh!t if he is indicted, charged, convicted, and sentenced. 2025 will be a bad year for Trump.