Down goes the Dow

Wrong. Again. Lots of you on here seem to have pretty fragile egos. I don't b.s.:

"Well, the aggregate indexes that I follow have bested me this year.

Incredible! Even though I had faith, and even posted about where the markets would go and why, I had yet more faith in my ability to generate a good return, with a ton more work but with far less risk.

I knew the markets would rise, but I didn't foresee by how much. I also knew BTC would rise and I bought and sold, but like with equities I'm thinking about buying again. I posted about bubbles before, and about my opinion that they can go sky-high depending on who's doing the inflating. I lived through the Vancouver housing rise, and my entire family lived through the Toronto housing rise.

IMO both cryptos (some of them) and US equities (and equities in select other markets) can still go significantly higher. I was looking at some fancy property somewhere, but the liquidity and transaction fees afforded by the equity markets are unmatched in my experience.

So there you have it. One of the few years in which I have been beaten by the markets. Great for you guys if you were in. I am now looking for long-term parking places for money, and I must say that certain markets are still looking attractive."

11/22/2017

Just because I do things that you either don't understand, or that you don't have access to, and do not disclose them, is not cause for you to doubt the things I say. Think about it this way: if I was a self-aggrandizing liar, what benefit would there be to doing it on an anonymous and impersonal internet forum? The assumption would be some sort of distorted personality...also unwarranted on the facts, but definitely telling about your individual psychology.

BTW the oil play has turned around to my benefit as well.

Maserati wrote:

It is that autocratic arrogant attitude that makes your posts crap, and that makes your life, and your economic situation, intrinsically weak.

This quite well summarizes the whole Igy thing, too.

UnailedIT wrote:

Maserati wrote:

It is that autocratic arrogant attitude that makes your posts crap, and that makes your life, and your economic situation, intrinsically weak.

This quite well summarizes the whole Igy thing, too.

He-b*tch comment from one of the usual suspects.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

UnailedIT wrote:

This quite well summarizes the whole Igy thing, too.

He-b*tch comment from one of the usual suspects.

Thanks for proving my point.

Hey Igy how’s this for being “sensible”: this weekend I will be repairing my wife’s old car, the first and only one she has ever had. Mechanics want $1300, hopefully I can do it in 6 hours.

!

$200/hr after tax, for a labor of love.

Maybe not so sensible, but cheap! She refuses to get a new car. Fine by me—the same attitude still has her with her first husband :)

Maserati,

Good luck. What are you doing?

I rebuilt two engines back in my coaching years. Today at least I know whether I am being taken or not. Son uses the well stocked tool chest for his truck repair. I still do most of the home maintenance and repair, but have transitioned away from the autos.

Igy

UnailedIT wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

He-b*tch comment from one of the usual suspects.

Thanks for proving my point.

Striking originality.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

UnailedIT wrote:

Thanks for proving my point.

Striking originality.

https://onsizzle.com/i/when-you-shut-someones-argument-down-and-they-say-thanks-4609155

It’s icredible how you continue to make posts that make you appear clueless.

Face the fax. Oh I got it. Ha ha. Thanks for proving my point.

Igy - I respect what your’e saying here. The one thing I think a lot of this analysis lacks is how much the market is pricing in a 20 or 22% corporate tax rate. If this bill does indeed pass, what do these ratios look like? I”m sure they’re a lot closer to historical norms than near historical highs if so.

P/E is missing something wrote:

Igy - I respect what your’e saying here. The one thing I think a lot of this analysis lacks is how much the market is pricing in a 20 or 22% corporate tax rate. If this bill does indeed pass, what do these ratios look like? I”m sure they’re a lot closer to historical norms than near historical highs if so.

Good point. A couple of comments, the market has moved significantly in hopes of the same. Therefore, the P has possibly advanced further than the E already. This is the second longest expansion ever, corporate profits margins are near records, and labor costs and costs of capital are not likely to go down. So, how much juice is left? That said, low corporate tax rate, and repatriation of overseas capital more likely leads to another wave of mergers, acquisitions and stock buybacks.

The market has gone through a series of reasons it should trade higher, few of which are based on fundamentals. The earnings of the S&P 500 are less than 2% higher than September 30, 2014, yet the index has moved from 1,972 to 2,650. Underneath the surface things are not stable, look at the price action Thursday and Friday.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Face the fax. Oh I got it. Ha ha. Thanks for proving my point.

You obviously don’t get it. And yes, a point is being proved...again.

Earnings Scorecard: For Q3 2017 (with 99% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results for the quarter), 74% of S&P 500 companies have reported positive EPS surprises and 67% have reported positive sales surprises.

Earnie wrote:

Earnings Scorecard: For Q3 2017 (with 99% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results for the quarter), 74% of S&P 500 companies have reported positive EPS surprises and 67% have reported positive sales surprises.

Earnings have been doing very well in recent quarters.

Stating what's obvious wrote:

Earnie wrote:

Earnings Scorecard: For Q3 2017 (with 99% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results for the quarter), 74% of S&P 500 companies have reported positive EPS surprises and 67% have reported positive sales surprises.

Earnings have been doing very well in recent quarters.

No one's going to dispute that. Tell us something we don’t already know.

Last Twelve Months GAAP EPS for Q3 2017 $107.18, or 1.2% higher than three years ago when Q3 2014 closed at $105.96. The S&P 500 closed Q3 2014 at 1,972 while Friday’s close was 2,642. Investors continue to pay a higher multiple for a unit of earnings, or about 33% more paid for EPS currently than just three years ago. That is what bubbles are made of.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Last Twelve Months GAAP EPS for Q3 2017 $107.18, or 1.2% higher than three years ago when Q3 2014 closed at $105.96. The S&P 500 closed Q3 2014 at 1,972 while Friday’s close was 2,642. Investors continue to pay a higher multiple for a unit of earnings, or about 33% more paid for EPS currently than just three years ago. That is what bubbles are made of.

You crack me up. You whined for months about how EPS was below Q314. Now it’s in record territory and you’re still whining. The simple fact is that EPS has been rising steadily for years. A one trick pony like you will ignore this good news, but winners haven’t.

No, I state facts, you promote a rosie narrative that twists reality.