I would categorize recent days as neither a rally nor a major downturn.
I would categorize recent days as neither a rally nor a major downturn.
Investment counselor wrote:
I would categorize recent days as neither a rally nor a major downturn.
Dow down over 300 in one day not major? Down over 1,000 in two weeks?
Global stocks still haven't broken their upward trend line - just as they have several times over the last couple years, they are right on the 200 day moving average.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=VT+Interactive#symbol=vt
;range=5y;compare=;indicator=split+sma(200)+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=;
The magical200 day moving average?
What gibberish.
It's all coming down
K5 wrote:
Dow down over 300 in one day not major? Down over 1,000 in two weeks?
Yes, a 300 point drop in the Dow is truly unprecedented
K5 wrote:
Investment counselor wrote:I would categorize recent days as neither a rally nor a major downturn.
Dow down over 300 in one day not major? Down over 1,000 in two weeks?
A 7% drop is not major. This may yet develop into something bigger, but it's not a big deal yet.
It's emotional responses like this poster is exhibiting that cause individual investors to overreact and get themselves in trouble. Step back and take a deep breathe.
Investment counselor wrote:
K5 wrote:[quote]Investment counselor wrote:
I would categorize recent days as neither a rally nor a major downturn.
Dow down over 300 in one day not major? Down over 1,000 in two weeks?
A 7% drop is not major. This may yet develop into something bigger, but it's not a big deal yet.
I know.
A 10% increase over six months is "massive' but a 7% drop in two weeks is not major.
Well one is coming that you will be hard pressed to deny is quite major.
dumb wrote:
K5 wrote:Dow down over 300 in one day not major? Down over 1,000 in two weeks?
Yes, a 300 point drop in the Dow is truly unprecedented
You cannot discern between major (my word) and unprecedented (yours)? You ought to slap you teachers
K5 wrote:
You cannot discern between major (my word) and unprecedented (yours)? You ought to slap you teachers
You cannot discern sarcasm?
"A 7% drop is not major."
This depends on both your perspective, and on prevailing conditions.
Looked at from the perspective of a long-term investor who is not an active trader, that might be true, depending on historic market directions and the point in the investment term at which the 7% drop happens, and how long it takes to happen.
Looked at from the perspective of one who got out at the end of 2013 and who now holds cash and is looking for something to buy, a 7% drop could indeed be major, as it may signal a good buying opportunity for certain funds.
To the extent that you may offer counsel on investment, your appreciation of the situation seems to be lacking, and your statement seems childish.
Also, because you are fairly dense (willfully or otherwise) and tend to get mired in extraneous tangential details, I will refocus the conversation and clearly state that daily declines on the order of 2% and multiweek declines on the order of 7% are regular events in stock markets and only infrequently portend large crashes.
ETF wrote:
"A 7% drop is not major."
This depends on both your perspective, and on prevailing conditions.
Looked at from the perspective of a long-term investor who is not an active trader, that might be true, depending on historic market directions and the point in the investment term at which the 7% drop happens, and how long it takes to happen.
Looked at from the perspective of one who got out at the end of 2013 and who now holds cash and is looking for something to buy, a 7% drop could indeed be major, as it may signal a good buying opportunity for certain funds.
To the extent that you may offer counsel on investment, your appreciation of the situation seems to be lacking, and your statement seems childish.
Good post, excellent points
The current consensus is
Month Date Forecast Value +/-50% Correct +/- 80% Correct
1 Feb 2014 15,780 215 482
2 Mar 2014 15,590 304 681
3 Apr 2014 16,000 372 834
4 May 2014 15,680 430 963
5 Jun 2014 15,850 481 1,077
6 Jul 2014 15,360 527 1,180
At the 50% Correct value there is a 50/50 chance the forecast value will be within this margin of error.
At the 80% Correct value there is a 80% chance the forecast value will be within this margin of error.
The potential range of a forecast's value is found by taking the published forecast value and both adding and subtracting the % Correct Values.
The % Correct (or error) values published are based on actual forecast performance.
For Example:
Forecast Value = 100
50% Correct Value = 10
80% Correct Value = 15
There is a 50% Chance the actual value will be between 110 and 90.
There is a 80% Chance the actual value will be between 115 and 85.
This is the answer. wrote:
The current consensus is
Month Date Forecast Value +/-50% Correct +/- 80% Correct
1 Feb 2014 15,780 215 482
2 Mar 2014 15,590 304 681
3 Apr 2014 16,000 372 834
4 May 2014 15,680 430 963
5 Jun 2014 15,850 481 1,077
6 Jul 2014 15,360 527 1,180
At the 50% Correct value there is a 50/50 chance the forecast value will be within this margin of error.
At the 80% Correct value there is a 80% chance the forecast value will be within this margin of error.
The potential range of a forecast's value is found by taking the published forecast value and both adding and subtracting the % Correct Values.
The % Correct (or error) values published are based on actual forecast performance.
For Example:
Forecast Value = 100
50% Correct Value = 10
80% Correct Value = 15
There is a 50% Chance the actual value will be between 110 and 90.
There is a 80% Chance the actual value will be between 115 and 85.
Consensus is worth exactly jack shit for forecasting the market.
This is the answer. wrote:
The current consensus is
Month Date Forecast Value +/-50% Correct +/- 80% Correct
1 Feb 2014 15,780 215 482
2 Mar 2014 15,590 304 681
3 Apr 2014 16,000 372 834
4 May 2014 15,680 430 963
5 Jun 2014 15,850 481 1,077
6 Jul 2014 15,360 527 1,180
At the 50% Correct value there is a 50/50 chance the forecast value will be within this margin of error.
At the 80% Correct value there is a 80% chance the forecast value will be within this margin of error.
The potential range of a forecast's value is found by taking the published forecast value and both adding and subtracting the % Correct Values.
The % Correct (or error) values published are based on actual forecast performance.
For Example:
Forecast Value = 100
50% Correct Value = 10
80% Correct Value = 15
There is a 50% Chance the actual value will be between 110 and 90.
There is a 80% Chance the actual value will be between 115 and 85.
God, I hope you are not paying someone for that information.
K5 wrote:
Well one is coming that you will be hard pressed to deny is quite major.
Ya think? Not really going out on a limb there, K5. Major corrections are routine. If you really want to impress us, tell us WHEN.
dumb wrote:
K5 wrote:You cannot discern between major (my word) and unprecedented (yours)? You ought to slap you teachers
You cannot discern sarcasm?
Yikes. You also are unfamiliar with what sarcasm is. You got nailed in your lie, accept it.
Sally Vixxxens wrote:
K5 wrote:Well one is coming that you will be hard pressed to deny is quite major.
Ya think? Not really going out on a limb there, K5. Major corrections are routine. If you really want to impress us, tell us WHEN.
I suspect you will all be sh*tting your pants this week-end.
It is coming this year, that's for sure
K5 wrote:
dumb wrote:You cannot discern sarcasm?
Yikes. You also are unfamiliar with what sarcasm is. You got nailed in your lie, accept it.
When I first read his reply, I thought it was sarcasm. I think it went over your head, K5.
K5 wrote:
Sally Vixxxens wrote:Ya think? Not really going out on a limb there, K5. Major corrections are routine. If you really want to impress us, tell us WHEN.
I suspect you will all be sh*tting your pants this week-end.
It is coming this year, that's for sure
This year, huh? Thanks for your bold prediction.
(P.S. That was sarcasm.)