Caster Semenya has just destroyed her lifetime PB, without any rabbits. 1:54.25!!

1:40.3 is not almost 1:40.9 for a start.

I'm not ignoring the facts. You are very obviously ignoring the facts. You have taken a formula designed for 800/1500 runners and arbitrarily applied it to Semenya.

Horwill would say that Rudisha can 3:29 based on his 45.15, based on his formula, that you are using.

(45.15 +5.3) x 2 = 1:40.9. (50.45 + 5.3) x 3.75 = 3:29

Some would agree with that. I don't. But that's what the formula YOU ARE USING states. And for Semenya it says she should run 3:46 based on your 50.4 and 1:50 estimate.

The women's WR holder ran 47.9 and only 1:53.3.

5 seconds is not some actual physiological standard. It's arbitrary. For every one athlete you find it 'working' for I'll find you 3 it doesn't.

rekrunner wrote:

What do you think makes it an excellent point?

Does it get on your nerves because I say things like ""Subway Surfers Addiction" failed to address the point made by "ex-runner""?

Now That's Telling It Like It Is wrote:

+1

Excellent point. I think "ex-runner" must be drinking when he posting - he doesn't know what heck he's talking about half the time. He's starting to get on my nerves much like rekrunner.

Hey, hey, no need to get all overconfident all of a sudden, just cause you've found yourself a doppelganger to tag-team with. Speaking of doppelgangers Tyler Hamilton had one, oh no that was a lie, epo works and you know it, ha, ha.

Subway Surfers Addiction wrote:

rekrunner wrote:

What do you think makes it an excellent point?

Does it get on your nerves because I say things like ""Subway Surfers Addiction" failed to address the point made by "ex-runner""?

Hey, hey, no need to get all overconfident all of a sudden, just cause you've found yourself a doppelganger to tag-team with. Speaking of doppelgangers Tyler Hamilton had one, oh no that was a lie, epo works and you know it, ha, ha.

I don't hold all the same opinions as Rekrunner.

But please, I'd love it if you even attempted to address any of the point I made in my post. Your shallow comments are really pointless.

I think you are struggling with the maths side of this formula. It states that your 1500m should be ~3:53 which is a bit faster than your best but not outrageously. Semenya has only run 3:59, nowhere near 3:46.

Horwill's formula properly applied to Semenya:

(50.4 + 6.7s) x 2 = 1:54.2

(50.4 + 6.7 + 6.7) x 3.75 = 3:59.2

That's pretty accurate. You just don't know how to use the formula. Horwill states that 4 or 5 second conversions are IDEAL but that not everyone achieves it. He gives examples of the women's WR holder and runners like Juantorena as those unable to get to the 4/5s conversion. Semenya would be another. She is speed based. 50.4 is seriously fast but 3:59 is not nearly as impressive.

Your understanding of the formula, the theory of 800m running and your maths ability (3:08 for Rudisha lol) all lack to have an intelligent discussion about this

You're weird ex-runner - what do you mean Semenya has "not demonstrated an advantage in terms of percentage or win streaks over her competitors that is an outlier?" I've been watching her race for years and all I see is her complete domination in the 800...period. FFS, the other two very masculine women; Niyonsaba & Wambui, sure as hell haven't been able to beat her. Wilson can't beat her, and no one else even comes close.

All l see is Semenya cruising on the first on 650 - 700 meters...then turning on her patented kick and it's lights out for the other women. No one can match that strength in the home stretch.

Now going back a few years, Semenya lost twice to a dope-to-the-gill Savinova at the 2011 WCs & London (but I had heard Semenya was taking testosterone lowering medication at that time?).

So, Semenya simple destroys the field...nothing new there.

Are you sure just don't have a soft heart for the dear Castor and feel sorry for her? ?

artojas wrote:

Women want to be independent and strong, then why should they have to rely on men to fix their problems?

Women are independent and strong.

It was men who created this mess, and it's gay men like you who cause it to keep getting worse.

If you would only leave women alone and stop abusing them, they'd be fine.

Summing up: go away you idiot, and soak your head in a bucket.

What I mean is, whilst she is an outlier in the womens 800m event, she is not unlike Bolt in his events or Latiskene in her event or Dibaba in her event. In terms of percentage (time) advantage over he competitors and win streaks, she is in the same category as the athletes I mentioned who dominated their events. She is not 10% better, but like Bolt and Ayana, about ~2% better. Latiskene is more of an outlier as is Dibaba.

And i agree she did 'sandbag' most of her races. I always wondered what someone who cruises for 700m and then kicks for a 1:56 could do. Now we are much closer to finding out.

I simply won't have this discussion with anyone who didn't watch the race mind you. So anyone telling me she cruised for 700m and kicked to 1:54 is simply a liar basing their opinions on the opinions of others in the thread. Watch the race for yourself.

Semenya ran Rudisha style, hitting the front from the start, first 400m in 56.1 and then fatigued and ran 58.1 for 1:54.2. Rudisha also slows by about 2 seconds in his second lap. Semenya cannot go significantly faster. Maybe 1:53 low but not 1:49. Anyone who says 1:49/1:50 simply has no idea, not the faintest clue, about 800m running. You need 50.x speed AND sub 3:50 1500m ability.

I do feel sorry for her because of the insults etc she must have endured growing up and now she faces the same thing publicly (or at least by anonymous trolls) who make personal insulting attacks on her. Anyone with some humanity would feel sorry for her in that regard.

However that doesn't change my opinion that the rules of the sport should be looked at again, like Coe is suggesting. My feelings don't cloud my judgement, unlike the posters in this thread.

There's hardly anything more pointless than attention seeking gay men arguing about women's competitions.

artojas wrote:

ex-runner wrote:

Your maths about Rudisha is off btw, the formula says he should run the 1500m in 3:29. Or, in 3:26.8 if you use a theoretical 5 second conversion. Or, more likely, he could run the 400m a bit faster in peak shape but he never raced it.

Again, I don't like the formula I think it's a rough rule of thumb that only works for certain 800/1500 athletes. Semenya will NEVER approach anything like a 4/5 second conversion, that's the type of conversion Coe might have had, it's an endurance type.

Ehmm... YOU gave me the formula, saying:

"That 'generous' rule, derived from Frank Horwill, also states that therefore the athlete should be able to run 1500m in (55.4 + 5) x 3.75 = 3:46.5."

So how come (45.15 + 5) x 3.75 = 3:08 is wrong?

Also, I disagree and think, that Semenya very likely can achieve the conversion for the 800m, but we will never find that out.

I will tell you, but I'll give you one more chance to figure it out all by yourself x

You've demonstrated you don't have the capacity to have this discussion. Also if you still run the 800 or coach it, forget the 5 second rule, it's BS. Do your own research into performances actually observed in real life and you'll see. It works as a rough rule of thumb for 800/1500 specialists only. It's obvious from the formula, and Horwill stated himself, that as the race times get quicker the 4/5 seconds becomes too large because it's constant. There's no flexibility. He also stated that not all runners can achieve anything like it but you're ignoring that part. Jarmila ran 47.9 but only managed 1:53.3 for the 800.

Pointless is as pointless does. wrote:

There's hardly anything more pointless than attention seeking gay men arguing about women's competitions.

What's up with the childish homophobia? If I was gay how does that affect the legitimacy of anything I say?

Grow up

My confidence has always been high, but never too high. I'm not so insecure that I ever needed to seek out confirmation from others in an echo chamber. I know EPO works -- if you have severe anemia.

Subway Surfers Addiction wrote:

Hey, hey, no need to get all overconfident all of a sudden, just cause you've found yourself a doppelganger to tag-team with. Speaking of doppelgangers Tyler Hamilton had one, oh no that was a lie, epo works and you know it, ha, ha.

My god, so many uncapable morons and aggresive drag queens here.

I think Caster can run 1:49 without sandbagging and what you think is what you think. If you can't accept that, then you can go go suck an egg.

Also interestingly everyone seems to have their own Horwills formula, varying from 4 to 8 seconds. Which I deeply do not care about. With a 50.4s 400m and 3:59 1500m the guy should be able to run way faster than 1:54, that'a hard ass fact.

Another hard ass fact is, that without Semenya, nobody would care about womens 800m and tainted beef Wilson, therefore IAAF is not gonna kill their cash cow. Right now a guy sandbagging the 800m and beating women is polarising AF, otherwise it would go back to plain normal and boring.

Because PC wrote:

Quite a gallery.

Katrina Karkazis wrote:

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2016/11/10/14/3A3AC59A00000578-3916140-Details_of_the_nuptials_were_uncovered_when_a_friend_of_the_coup-m-25_1478789522792.jpghttp://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2016/11/10/15/3A2E7E1600000578-3916140-Party_As_the_couple_prepare_for_their_wedding_Caster_is_enjoying-m-30_1478790831237.jpghttps://imgur.com/BBPH0GEhttp://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2016/11/10/11/3A2E7E1C00000578-3916140-image-a-4_1478779001236.jpghttp://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2016/11/10/15/3A2E7E0300000578-3916140-Amid_the_controversy_Caster_has_focused_on_Violet_with_both_wome-m-31_1478790888682.jpghttp://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2016/11/10/11/03ACD107000003E8-3916140-image-a-13_1478779097033.jpg

Just an ugly dude.

Artojas wrote:

My god, so many uncapable morons and aggresive drag queens here.

I think Caster can run 1:49 without sandbagging and what you think is what you think. If you can't accept that, then you can go go suck an egg.

Also interestingly everyone seems to have their own Horwills formula, varying from 4 to 8 seconds. Which I deeply do not care about. With a 50.4s 400m and 3:59 1500m the guy should be able to run way faster than 1:54, that'a hard ass fact.

Another hard ass fact is, that without Semenya, nobody would care about womens 800m and tainted beef Wilson, therefore IAAF is not gonna kill their cash cow. Right now a guy sandbagging the 800m and beating women is polarising AF, otherwise it would go back to plain normal and boring.

The people who have most financially profited from the whole saga are of course... the owners of this site. All that clickbait revenue! They even create their own followup threads like the 'lets talk about Semenya' one that popped up when we already had one on the top forum page.

ex-runner wrote:

My feelings don't cloud my judgement, unlike the posters in this thread.

If not your feelings -- what is affecting it then? -- because your judgment is way off.

Artojas wrote:

My god, so many uncapable morons and aggresive drag queens here.

I think Caster can run 1:49 without sandbagging and what you think is what you think. If you can't accept that, then you can go go suck an egg.

Also interestingly everyone seems to have their own Horwills formula, varying from 4 to 8 seconds. Which I deeply do not care about. With a 50.4s 400m and 3:59 1500m the guy should be able to run way faster than 1:54, that'a hard ass fact.

Another hard ass fact is, that without Semenya, nobody would care about womens 800m and tainted beef Wilson, therefore IAAF is not gonna kill their cash cow. Right now a guy sandbagging the 800m and beating women is polarising AF, otherwise it would go back to plain normal and boring.

Obviously 50.4 and 3:59 does not give much faster than 1:54 at all.

zerezr wrote:

Because PC wrote:

Quite a gallery.

Just an ugly dude.

And exploiting women in yet another inventive way.

Not curious: wrote:

ex-runner wrote:

My feelings don't cloud my judgement, unlike the posters in this thread.

If not your feelings -- what is affecting it then? -- because your judgment is way off.

Everyone else's feelings is making their judgement way off. I just did the maths and looked at results, and can tell you that Semenya's advantage in the 800 is about as dominant as Dibaba in the 1500.

Tonight just showed again that outside of her specific event Semenya struggles. Like Rudisha would in a 1500.

Semenya's advantage maybe be unfair in that it comes from a place that the other women can't compete on. But mathematically and statistically it's not an outlier advantage when you look at Bolt and Dibaba.

ex-runner wrote:

Semenya's advantage maybe be unfair in that it comes from a place that the other women can't compete on.

Women can compete against men but shouldn't have to do that, especially in this modern age.

There now is a women's division for real women.

And there's a men's open division, for men and anyone else who isn't a real woman, like Semenya.

But mathematically and statistically it's not an outlier advantage when you look at Bolt and Dibaba.

Based on that, you must feel that 90 percent of all men should be able to compete with the women, because they aren't really any better. In my opinion, your attitude shows that you have very poor judgment, in addition to a dislike for real women, and poor emotional stability.