Down goes the Dow

Smoked. wrote:

Pointing out the Obvious wrote:

Well, yeah, except for the fact that:

1) It 'aint' a casino.

and

2) If you are going to make the casino analogy then the only reasonable way to look at it is that we ARE the house.

1. It is for many people. I can give you the names of 10 people that consider it a casino, and invest accordingly. For them, and many others, the reality is that it is a casino. No matter what you say.

2. No way. In most people's cases, and the way they "invest" (poorly), Wall Street brokers, investment firms, etc. are the house.

You can debate all you want, but you are denying reality.

Yeah, except for the part where the more bets you place in the stock market (the longer you keep your money invested, since every day is a bet) the higher the odds are that you come out ahead. Just like...wait for it...The House at a casino.

Small detail, I know.

UPDATE! Dow is up 111 so far today to 14,945. So, out for 2+ months and even so far.

Jim Kramer says he expects September to be a bad month just based on his experience when looking at Septembers. Just another thing we can check in this thread.

Flagpole wrote:

UPDATE! Dow is up 111 so far today to 14,945. So, out for 2+ months and even so far.

Jim Kramer says he expects September to be a bad month just based on his experience when looking at Septembers. Just another thing we can check in this thread.

That's Jim Cramer.

Flagpole wrote:

UPDATE! Dow is up 111 so far today to 14,945. So, out for 2+ months and even so far.

Jim Kramer says he expects September to be a bad month just based on his experience when looking at Septembers. Just another thing we can check in this thread.

I don't really care if September is bad. I don't plan to retire for 3 + decades, so it makes no difference to me if September is down.

I'm an investor, not a speculator. There's a big difference.

big deal wrote:

Flagpole wrote:

UPDATE! Dow is up 111 so far today to 14,945. So, out for 2+ months and even so far.

Jim Kramer says he expects September to be a bad month just based on his experience when looking at Septembers. Just another thing we can check in this thread.

I don't really care if September is bad. I don't plan to retire for 3 + decades, so it makes no difference to me if September is down.

I'm an investor, not a speculator. There's a big difference.

Yep. I don't care either other than to see if someone who tells people WHEN to buy and sell is right.

To quote Mark Twain:

"October. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February."

If you're investing for the long-term, day to day, month to month and even year to year fluctuations just don't matter.

Pointing out the Obvious wrote:

Yeah, except for the part where the more bets you place in the stock market (the longer you keep your money invested, since every day is a bet) the higher the odds are that you come out ahead. Just like...wait for it...The House at a casino.

Small detail, I know.

That's exactly why I said that the market in the longer term is a weighing machine (short-term voting machine).

And that I said his casino comparison was appropriate for people that invest shorter-term and look at stocks as squiggly lines.

I knew exactly the point you were trying to make, and I accounted for it. You, on the other hand, were trying to deny that for many people it is a casino and they aren't the house. You're denial was incorrect for those people.

[quote]Flagpole wrote:

I don't really care if September is bad. I don't plan to retire for 3 + decades, so it makes no difference to me if September is down.

So a 50% drop in September, for an extreme example, does not matter to you? You think that does not impact what you will have accumulated in 3 decades? You require remedial math,

I'm an investor, not a speculator. There's a big difference.

You are a gambler, nothing more, nothing less.

BoJax wrote:

So a 50% drop in September, for an extreme example, does not matter to you?

Uh, things are UP so far in September. Try to keep up.

Oh. My bad.

BoJax wrote:

[quote]Flagpole wrote:

I don't really care if September is bad. I don't plan to retire for 3 + decades, so it makes no difference to me if September is down.

So a 50% drop in September, for an extreme example, does not matter to you? You think that does not impact what you will have accumulated in 3 decades? You require remedial math,

I'm an investor, not a speculator. There's a big difference.

You are a gambler, nothing more, nothing less.

1) I didn't write any of that...learn to do that better.

2) If indeed you were referring to me, investing in diversified mutual funds is not gambling...there is SOME risk, but there is a track record of growth, and it takes a LOT of push back to change the path of history. Besides, investing is just ONE thing you do to ensure financial freedom, it isn't the only thing.

Flagpole wrote:

[quote]BoJax wrote:

[quote]Flagpole wrote:

I don't really care if September is bad. I don't plan to retire for 3 + decades, so it makes no difference to me if September is down.

So a 50% drop in September, for an extreme example, does not matter to you? You think that does not impact what you will have accumulated in 3 decades? You require remedial math,

I'm an investor, not a speculator. There's a big difference.

You are a gambler, nothing more, nothing less.

1) I didn't write any of that...learn to do that better.

Huh? I copied and pasted your previous post. Either someone is impersonating you and you can't read or you have really lost your mind.

2) If indeed you were referring to me, investing in diversified mutual funds is not gambling...there is SOME risk, but there is a track record of growth, and it takes a LOT of push back to change the path of history. Besides, investing is just ONE thing you do to ensure financial freedom, it isn't the only thing. Not gambling? The path of history? Just how deluded are you?

1) Dude, go back and read what you copied. I clearly didn't write what you pulled out. I wrote a one-sentence response to what you pulled out. Maybe you shouldn't post in that way if you don't understand how this all works.

2) History does NOT GUARANTEE future results in the market, but it's a VERY GOOD barometer. If you don't want to invest in the stock market, then don't do so. That fact is that there isn't a better way for people to safely make money passively than the stock market. Again, it's just PART of your financial plan. The plan includes getting out of debt and staying there, making sure to retire only after you are completely debt free, and putting 15% of your income into retirement accounts made up of diversified mutual funds in these types of vehicles: growth, growth and income (value), aggressive growth, and international. You have to count for bad years. The market goes up 73% of calendar years and 27% down. The overall trend is up to the tune of ~11% annually. You can get wealthy on that. You call it gambling. It's gambling if you buy ONE stock. When you buy mutual funds, and then you diversify those mutual funds, you are dealing with hundreds of stocks minimum, and the likelihood that they will all go down over time is zero...unless there were an extended world catastrophe, in which case you'd have trouble anyway.

Klondike5 wrote:

I got out at the end of June with the Dow at @ 15,000.

No plans to get back in any time soon. I will play it be feel.

2+ months later and the Dow is at virtually the same point as when you got out. What are you feeling now?

Kilo wrote:

Klondike5 wrote:

I got out at the end of June with the Dow at @ 15,000.

No plans to get back in any time soon. I will play it be feel.

2+ months later and the Dow is at virtually the same point as when you got out. What are you feeling now?

Considering he started this thread less than 2 weeks ago (on 8/27/13)... and that he mentioned being willing to stay out for year(s) if necessary, I'll guess he is feeling much the same as he has been posting this entire thread.

Klondike5 wrote:

Down to 14,850 from a peak of 15,700 I believe.

Maybe 5%

What's the bottom?

I am betting sub 13,000

Scenario 1: every month until the market tanks, the same yahoos will bump the thread and prance around saying how they were right and you were wrong.

Scenario 2: once the market does tank, they will disappear, or barely acknowledge you were right, and they will qualify any credit you receive with b.s. like a) you got lucky; b) there was "no way" anybody, including you, could have seen XX coming; c) even if you got this one "right", your approach is wrong; d) push you about when you're buying back in; e) minimize/deny how much you actually gained (see Flagpole's "math" on your 2008/2009 sell, lol); f) say that it's not repeatable and that you will eventually lose out to their approach.

heads you lose tails I win wrote:

Scenario 2: once the market does tank, they will disappear, or barely acknowledge you were right, and they will qualify any credit you receive with b.s. like a) you got lucky; b) there was "no way" anybody, including you, could have seen XX coming; c) even if you got this one "right", your approach is wrong; d) push you about when you're buying back in; e) minimize/deny how much you actually gained (see Flagpole's "math" on your 2008/2009 sell, lol); f) say that it's not repeatable and that you will eventually lose out to their approach.

That's a lot if yapping for people who supposedly disappeared.

Sally Vixenss wrote:

That's a lot if yapping for people who supposedly disappeared.

You seem to have missed the key word "or".

heads you lose tails I win wrote:

[quote]Klondike5 wrote:

Down to 14,850 from a peak of 15,700 I believe.

Maybe 5%

What's the bottom?

I am betting sub 13,000

Scenario 1: every month until the market tanks, the same yahoos will bump the thread and prance around saying how they were right and you were wrong.

Scenario 2: once the market does tank, they will disappear, or barely acknowledge you were right,

In the end, I don't really care.

As I watch this nation careen towards yet another war in the middle east that will likely spike gas prices and depress the world economy, I am feeling very good about my decision to bail out of the equities market at the end of June.

A 30% to 50% downward "correction" is certainly not out of the question. My downside is that, if wrong, I miss out on a modest run-up. We surely will not have a 30% to 50% run-up over the next couple of months.