7:17.55 is relatively MUCH stronger than 3:26.00 and 12:35.36.
His 2000m WR is also stronger than both the 1500m WR and the 5000m WR BUT far from as strong as his 3000m WR.
If we’re using the WA scoring tables, his strongest world record is the 3:45.14 indoor mile, which is allegedly worth 1330 points or a 7:16.03 3000m.
I don’t know if I really believe that, indoor distance times have gotten a lot better very quickly, but it’s there.
Jakob did 1500m time trials at Silesia in 2023 and Monaco in 2024 in the midst of the seasons where he set the other world records. So it stands to reason that he would need to be fitter than he was in those seasons from a 1500 perspective.
As I have pointed out before the indoors times are off compared to the outdoor times AND ESPECIALLY ARE THE MILE AND 2 MILES TIME COMPLETELY OF also compared to the indoor 1500m and 3000m.
I will maintain that the outdoor 3000m WR is by far the strongest mid and long distance WR on the TRACK.
I think he could have broken the 1500m WR in Silesia last year had he run the 1500m instead of the 3000m. OR if he had got good pacing in the Paris final as he gave his closest competitors. In Paris he could have run 3x 55 + sub 41 for the last 300m. I have argued before that an athlete of his calibre gains around 1 sec per 500m if he has good pacing.
We must see if he comes back to that kind of shape again.
According to the post you have replied to, his chances for breaking those records are ABOUT ZERO. Do you even understand this? It's complete nonsense. If he can reach his best form again for sure he has some chance to break those records. Will he be back at his best? We can't know.
But his chance is NOT ABOUT ZERO.
Armstronglivs hardly ever has done A GOOD POST to those subjects.
I am saying he won't regain his previous best form because of his increased susceptibility to injury. So that means his chances of breaking the records that he says he is going to break is about zero; he won't get them. He could only get them if he had not been injured and was able to be in better form than he ever has been. His susceptibility to injury now will prevent that.
7:17.55 a year ago, two world indoor titles and two world indoor records 8 months ago.
His chance for breaking those records is NOT ABOUT ZERO.
I see you don't understand probability at all. When injured - like this summer - his chance might be about zero.
3:26.73 is worth around 3:43.13 - and he definitely is stronger over the Mile than over 1500m. The Mile WR definitely was not out of reach for him in 2024.
The mile is only 109 meters longer than the 1500m and there’s no such thing as being stronger at that distance relative to the 1500m.
7:17.55 is relatively MUCH stronger than 3:26.00 and 12:35.36.
His 2000m WR is also stronger than both the 1500m WR and the 5000m WR BUT far from as strong as his 3000m WR.
I question this strongly.
In a single attempt at 3000m, in not perfect conditions while not pacrd perfectly he did the equivalent of close to 3:25? What could he have done with better conditions and perfect pacing? The equivalent of clode to 3:24?
When Komen has run 7:20.67, the 5000m mark was 12:44.39. Both marks were close to each other, absolutely astonishing back then. The 5000m mark has improved by 9 seconds since, the 3000m mark by 3 seconds.
I think they are close, but 12:35.36 is superior.
12:35 in the 5000 is not superior to 7:17 in the 3000.
3:26.73 is worth around 3:43.13 - and he definitely is stronger over the Mile than over 1500m. The Mile WR definitely was not out of reach for him in 2024.
The mile is only 109 meters longer than the 1500m and there’s no such thing as being stronger at that distance relative to the 1500m.
For sure there is. If your strength is 800m for sure you are better at the 1500m than the Mile. If your strength is 3000m, for sure you are better at the Mile than at 1500m.
If you really think anybody is equally good at 1500m and the Mile, the consequence is that anybody is equally good at any distance. Nonsense.
In a single attempt at 3000m, in not perfect conditions while not pacrd perfectly he did the equivalent of close to 3:25? What could he have done with better conditions and perfect pacing? The equivalent of clode to 3:24?
When Komen has run 7:20.67, the 5000m mark was 12:44.39. Both marks were close to each other, absolutely astonishing back then. The 5000m mark has improved by 9 seconds since, the 3000m mark by 3 seconds.
I think they are close, but 12:35.36 is superior.
12:35 in the 5000 is not superior to 7:17 in the 3000.
12:35 in the 5000 is not superior to 7:17 in the 3000.
Why do you think so?
Well, most of the charts I've seen equate 7:17.55 to something ridiculous like 12:30.68.
But I don't really go with that. After Komen's 7:20, less than a year later he ran 12:39. He was a 7:20/12:39 guy. Jakob destroyed his 3k time by over 3 seconds. I'd put Jakob at 12:31-12:32 the same day he ran the 7:17.55. That's 58.34s/lap. I get it, 60.4's are no joke and neither is 12:35, but the 7:17.55 is still a little better.
Well, most of the charts I've seen equate 7:17.55 to something ridiculous like 12:30.68.
But I don't really go with that. After Komen's 7:20, less than a year later he ran 12:39. He was a 7:20/12:39 guy. Jakob destroyed his 3k time by over 3 seconds. I'd put Jakob at 12:31-12:32 the same day he ran the 7:17.55. That's 58.34s/lap. I get it, 60.4's are no joke and neither is 12:35, but the 7:17.55 is still a little better.
Using Komen for the conversion, it would yield something like 12:34 in the 5k though. And Jakob definitely blows Komen out of the water in the 1500m so I don't think he would have the same conversion as Komen between 3k and 5k, so it's probably more like 12:35-36. It's gonna be close and not as easy as many people think.
Well, most of the charts I've seen equate 7:17.55 to something ridiculous like 12:30.68.
But I don't really go with that. After Komen's 7:20, less than a year later he ran 12:39. He was a 7:20/12:39 guy. Jakob destroyed his 3k time by over 3 seconds. I'd put Jakob at 12:31-12:32 the same day he ran the 7:17.55. That's 58.34s/lap. I get it, 60.4's are no joke and neither is 12:35, but the 7:17.55 is still a little better.
Using Komen for the conversion, it would yield something like 12:34 in the 5k though. And Jakob definitely blows Komen out of the water in the 1500m so I don't think he would have the same conversion as Komen between 3k and 5k, so it's probably more like 12:35-36. It's gonna be close and not as easy as many people think.
Because he's superior to Komen in the 1500, he will not convert as well from 3k to 5k as Komen did? Nonsense. If anything, he will convert better. He's faster than Komen and stronger. That's the entire idea of his training. To be very, very strong and simultaneously fast. He should be able to run between 12:30 and 12:35 just fine. Time will tell (pun intended albeit a poor one).
7:17.55 is relatively MUCH stronger than 3:26.00 and 12:35.36.
His 2000m WR is also stronger than both the 1500m WR and the 5000m WR BUT far from as strong as his 3000m WR.
I question this strongly.
In a single attempt at 3000m, in not perfect conditions while not pacrd perfectly he did the equivalent of close to 3:25? What could he have done with better conditions and perfect pacing? The equivalent of clode to 3:24?
When Komen has run 7:20.67, the 5000m mark was 12:44.39. Both marks were close to each other, absolutely astonishing back then. The 5000m mark has improved by 9 seconds since, the 3000m mark by 3 seconds.
I think they are close, but 12:35.36 is superior.
You question this strongly?....... But on what basis?
IAAF´s ranking points give 1320p for the 3000m WR, 1302p for the 1500m WR and 1302 for the 5000m WR. Bekele´s former 5000m WR gives 1294p. You can of course have the opinion that the ranking points are completely arbitrary BUT.......I think most serious posters will agree that they are pretty accurate, even if it not exact science.
Before Cheptegei broke the 5000m and 10000m WRs many posters here claimed that Komen´s 3000m WR was the strongest in the book.
I am quite certain our eloquent oracle Salvitore argued some years ago that Komen´s WR was almost impossible to break as was El-G´s 2000m WR. And many posters agreed at least until first Cheptegei and then Jakob came into adulthood.
By the way the 1320 points for the 3000m WR equals 3:35 high in the 1500m.
In a single attempt at 3000m, in not perfect conditions while not pacrd perfectly he did the equivalent of close to 3:25? What could he have done with better conditions and perfect pacing? The equivalent of clode to 3:24?
When Komen has run 7:20.67, the 5000m mark was 12:44.39. Both marks were close to each other, absolutely astonishing back then. The 5000m mark has improved by 9 seconds since, the 3000m mark by 3 seconds.
I think they are close, but 12:35.36 is superior.
You question this strongly?....... But on what basis?
IAAF´s ranking points give 1320p for the 3000m WR, 1302p for the 1500m WR and 1302 for the 5000m WR. Bekele´s former 5000m WR gives 1294p. You can of course have the opinion that the ranking points are completely arbitrary BUT.......I think most serious posters will agree that they are pretty accurate, even if it not exact science.
Before Cheptegei broke the 5000m and 10000m WRs many posters here claimed that Komen´s 3000m WR was the strongest in the book.
I am quite certain our eloquent oracle Salvitore argued some years ago that Komen´s WR was almost impossible to break as was El-G´s 2000m WR. And many posters agreed at least until first Cheptegei and then Jakob came into adulthood.
By the way the 1320 points for the 3000m WR equals 3:35 high in the 1500m.
By the way the 1320 points for the 3000m WR equals 3:35 high in the 1500m. That's not even close to being true
Jakob Ingebrigtsen tell norwegian press he is aiming for breaking the 1500, mile and 5000 in the upcoming season. He is already picking the time and place for it. Can he do it?
I really hope Jakob skips Euro XC this year. He can’t race everything.
I really hope Jakob skips Euro XC this year. He can’t race everything.
Filip (as brother and coach) stressed (in season 2 of Born to run) that somebody should slow Jakob down. But he also admitted that it always will be Jakob that decides in the end…
3:26.73 is worth around 3:43.13 - and he definitely is stronger over the Mile than over 1500m. The Mile WR definitely was not out of reach for him in 2024.
The mile is only 109 meters longer than the 1500m and there’s no such thing as being stronger at that distance relative to the 1500m.
Wightman is a worse miler than 1500 runner. a 800/1500 runner will run slightly - but noticeably, especially when talking about WR level - worse in the mile than a 1500-3000 runner
Well, most of the charts I've seen equate 7:17.55 to something ridiculous like 12:30.68.
But I don't really go with that. After Komen's 7:20, less than a year later he ran 12:39. He was a 7:20/12:39 guy. Jakob destroyed his 3k time by over 3 seconds. I'd put Jakob at 12:31-12:32 the same day he ran the 7:17.55. That's 58.34s/lap. I get it, 60.4's are no joke and neither is 12:35, but the 7:17.55 is still a little better.
You don't think that a very strength based runner who ran 7:17 could, if evenly paced through ~7:35-7:36, with a potential "superpacer" to almost 4k (10:07), could close in faster than 2:28?
Jakob Ingebrigtsen tell norwegian press he is aiming for breaking the 1500, mile and 5000 in the upcoming season. He is already picking the time and place for it. Can he do it?
I really hope Jakob skips Euro XC this year. He can’t race everything.
Agreed regarding Euro XC, there is nothing left for him to prove at European level except for eventually taking all of the records Almgren got this year.
I wouldn't be opposed seeing him run World XC though. If he is going to run XC, run World, not Euro.
In a single attempt at 3000m, in not perfect conditions while not pacrd perfectly he did the equivalent of close to 3:25? What could he have done with better conditions and perfect pacing? The equivalent of clode to 3:24?
When Komen has run 7:20.67, the 5000m mark was 12:44.39. Both marks were close to each other, absolutely astonishing back then. The 5000m mark has improved by 9 seconds since, the 3000m mark by 3 seconds.
I think they are close, but 12:35.36 is superior.
You question this strongly?....... But on what basis?
IAAF´s ranking points give 1320p for the 3000m WR, 1302p for the 1500m WR and 1302 for the 5000m WR. Bekele´s former 5000m WR gives 1294p. You can of course have the opinion that the ranking points are completely arbitrary BUT.......I think most serious posters will agree that they are pretty accurate, even if it not exact science.
Before Cheptegei broke the 5000m and 10000m WRs many posters here claimed that Komen´s 3000m WR was the strongest in the book.
I am quite certain our eloquent oracle Salvitore argued some years ago that Komen´s WR was almost impossible to break as was El-G´s 2000m WR. And many posters agreed at least until first Cheptegei and then Jakob came into adulthood.
By the way the 1320 points for the 3000m WR equals 3:35 high in the 1500m.
All those tables favour the not regularly run events,
5000m is the (outdoor) championship event, not 3000m. Athletes train and focus for 5000m, not for 3000m. 5000m is run much more offen than 3000m. The 3000m record superiour to the 5000m record must be a rare exception. The ratio 5000mWR : 3000mWR currently is lower than at the end of the 60s, the 70s, the 80s (for sure it was even lower before Ingebrigtsen, because of the stagnation of Komen's mark and the extremely strong 5000m marks).
In the history of middle and long distance running there are very few examples where a WR in an "odd" distance was es good as the one in the Championship distance. One is Coe's 2:12.18, Also the Mile sometimes was better than the 1500m.
I am saying he won't regain his previous best form because of his increased susceptibility to injury. So that means his chances of breaking the records that he says he is going to break is about zero; he won't get them. He could only get them if he had not been injured and was able to be in better form than he ever has been. His susceptibility to injury now will prevent that.
7:17.55 a year ago, two world indoor titles and two world indoor records 8 months ago.
His chance for breaking those records is NOT ABOUT ZERO.
I see you don't understand probability at all. When injured - like this summer - his chance might be about zero.
Can he be fit again? For sure.
"Can he be fit again? For sure."
That's the the issue and that's why we differ. We can't be sure. Repetitive Achilles injuries are incredibly difficult to prevent once they start occurring and especially for top athletes in running and jumping sports, pushing their bodies to the limit - which is what it takes to be the best.
If he had injured only one Achilles I might give him a 50/50 chance of a full recovery but that he has experienced injuries now in both Achilles says to me his body can't take what he has been subjecting it to. If he continues to make those demands of himself it is highly likely those injuries will continue to plague him. That will rule out winning the big races let alone breaking very tough world records. I know his fans don't want this to happen but pro sport is brutal and unforgiving. Careers typically end with injuries.
Using Komen for the conversion, it would yield something like 12:34 in the 5k though. And Jakob definitely blows Komen out of the water in the 1500m so I don't think he would have the same conversion as Komen between 3k and 5k, so it's probably more like 12:35-36. It's gonna be close and not as easy as many people think.
Because he's superior to Komen in the 1500, he will not convert as well from 3k to 5k as Komen did? Nonsense. If anything, he will convert better. He's faster than Komen and stronger. That's the entire idea of his training. To be very, very strong and simultaneously fast. He should be able to run between 12:30 and 12:35 just fine. Time will tell (pun intended albeit a poor one).
Yet he hasn't run faster than 12:48 for about 4 years. Time is indeed running out. What you think he should be able to run remains pure speculation. He is a long way off it.
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