D1 Women’s XC Championship Simulation Countdown

Division I Cross Country · 2025-10-07T04:12:07-04:00

Here is a start on a Natty’s Simulation Countdown :www.lacctic.com/simulate/teamIDs=953,263,2444,1329,1079&individualRunnerIDs=90788,70990,92963,106354&league=&deleted=124115,124118,125709,124116,82397,82394,124121,124122,124124,121046,82975,73973,121053,125545,86932,125548,125550,97167,104607The accuracy of this simulation can be improved if some basic updates are implemented, such as: (1) fill in the missing athletes, e.g., Hedengren; (2) make some warranted finer adjustments in the expected top 7’s for each team, e.g. Napoleon’s rating should be no less than 15:33; (3) add in some expected fill-in athletes, particularly after the 3’s, to get an idea on the placements separation;(4) limit each team to just seven athletes. There seems to be a bug when posting LACCTiC simulations: with low sticks previously deleted, they still get put back in when sharing the simulation.

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7 months ago 10/23/2025 6:06am EDT

re: sim ulator

sim ulator wrote:
LOL...I just laugh since you guys worry about someone's tic being 15:30 vs 15:37, when the factors that most impact the race are 1- who is actually healthy and available on race day, and 2- who bigly over/under performs their predictions. It rarely goes like the plan.
On another note the NCAA just gave us another predictive toy on their website that also ranks teams and individuals. Basis, however, is only current '25 results.

The TiC is a very informative metric, like the batting average in baseball. Nonetheless, like the batting average, it needs to be placed in context (consistency, trend, etc.) to get the complete story.

7 months ago 10/23/2025 6:09am EDT

re: DivIX Country

DivIX Country wrote:
sim ulator wrote:
LOL...I just laugh since you guys worry about someone's tic being 15:30 vs 15:37, when the factors that most impact the race are 1- who is actually healthy and available on race day, and 2- who bigly over/under performs their predictions. It rarely goes like the plan.
On another note the NCAA just gave us another predictive toy on their website that also ranks teams and individuals. Basis, however, is only current '25 results.
The TiC is a very informative metric, like the batting average in baseball. Nonetheless, like the batting average, it needs to be placed in context (consistency, trend, etc.) to get the complete story.

Right, what LAACTiC does quite nicely is tell you where runners/teams should place based on what they have shown recently. Of course some will underperform or overperform, but it is a starting point.

7 months ago 10/23/2025 7:06am EDT

re: sim ulator

sim ulator wrote:
BYU and NC St fortunately have 10 runners for 7 spots, other teams not so fortunate.

BYU has 10 runners but NC State does not. They basically have 5 and have no room for error. There was a huge gap between Engelhardt and Rauber/Putnam at Nuttycombe - 38 seconds between #5 and #6 alone. At Pre-Nats, from #3 to #8 was only 21 seconds for BYU.

Another thing: as far as I know, NC State ran their entire "A" team. BYU did not run Hutchins or Lovell and that would put eight runners within 21 seconds of each other.

If any of Rohatinsky, Farmer, Goff, Roberts, Macchia, Alder, or Lovell get sick or injured, there are multiple people to take their place without having any significant effect on the team score. If any of NCS's top-5 get sick, there is simply nobody to replace them without taking a major hit.

NC State has one way to win - Hartman, Napoloen, Gapes, Michalak, and Engelhardt need to run their best. BYU has numerous ways that they can put together a winning score.

7 months ago 10/23/2025 7:37am EDT

re: BYU is going to win

BYU is going to win wrote:
sim ulator wrote:
BYU and NC St fortunately have 10 runners for 7 spots, other teams not so fortunate.
BYU has 10 runners but NC State does not. They basically have 5 and have no room for error. There was a huge gap between Engelhardt and Rauber/Putnam at Nuttycombe - 38 seconds between #5 and #6 alone. At Pre-Nats, from #3 to #8 was only 21 seconds for BYU.
Another thing: as far as I know, NC State ran their entire "A" team. BYU did not run Hutchins or Lovell and that would put eight runners within 21 seconds of each other.
If any of Rohatinsky, Farmer, Goff, Roberts, Macchia, Alder, or Lovell get sick or injured, there are multiple people to take their place without having any significant effect on the team score. If any of NCS's top-5 get sick, there is simply nobody to replace them without taking a major hit.
NC State has one way to win - Hartman, Napoloen, Gapes, Michalak, and Engelhardt need to run their best. BYU has numerous ways that they can put together a winning score.

Well, the question for NC St is which are the real Brooke Rauber and Kate Putman? Relative to Michalak, Engelhardt, Brickerstaff and Scheffler their result was 25-35 seconds slower in Wisconsin vs Chicago 2 week earlier. Coach Henes after the race said their fitness was similar to Michalak and Engelhardt.

7 months ago 10/23/2025 7:43am EDT

re: i do run run run

i do run run run wrote:
Dont know why people keep saying Oregon only really has a strong top 4. Their full team best would be
Cherotich
Cherubet
Ayyildiz
Dalia Frias
Mia Barnett
Annika Thompson
Ella Thorsett
Ali Ince
thats more than a top 4. Wouldnt you say? Frías añd Barnett are hardest to wonder about since Frías has been injured previous years añd Barnett blew up at nats last year after running 7th place at Big Ten.

You’re right, I stand corrected. Dalia was a good athlete in HS but has yet to perform well at NCAA. If she’s bounced back from injuries and closer to Ayyildiz, Oregon will be up there.

7 months ago 10/23/2025 8:03am EDT

re: BYU is going to win

BYU is going to win wrote:
NC State has one way to win - Hartman, Napoloen, Gapes, Michalak, and Engelhardt need to run their best. BYU has numerous ways that they can put together a winning score.

BYU has no way to win without Hutchins, and she has been vaporware to this point.

7 months ago 10/23/2025 8:06am EDT

re: DivIX Country

DivIX Country wrote:
BYU is going to win wrote:
NC State has one way to win - Hartman, Napoloen, Gapes, Michalak, and Engelhardt need to run their best. BYU has numerous ways that they can put together a winning score.
BYU has no way to win without Hutchins, and she has been vaporware to this point.

Oh, and let me add your phrasing, BYU has no way to win without Hutchins “running her best.” That is essential for BYU to even have a shot.

7 months ago 10/23/2025 8:12am EDT

re: DivIX Country

DivIX Country wrote:
DivIX Country wrote:
BYU has no way to win without Hutchins, and she has been vaporware to this point.
Oh, and let me add your phrasing, BYU has no way to win without Hutchins “running her best.” That is essential for BYU to even have a shot.

Go ahead and downvote, if you please, BYU fan, but you know you aren’t looking at it objectively when you trumpet the gap between NC State’s 5 & 6, but ignore the glaring gap between BYU’s 2 & 4. Which gap will have greater impact on scoring?

7 months ago 10/23/2025 8:34am EDT

re: BYU is going to win

BYU is going to win wrote:
sim ulator wrote:
BYU and NC St fortunately have 10 runners for 7 spots, other teams not so fortunate.
BYU has 10 runners but NC State does not. They basically have 5 and have no room for error. There was a huge gap between Engelhardt and Rauber/Putnam at Nuttycombe - 38 seconds between #5 and #6 alone. At Pre-Nats, from #3 to #8 was only 21 seconds for BYU.
Another thing: as far as I know, NC State ran their entire "A" team. BYU did not run Hutchins or Lovell and that would put eight runners within 21 seconds of each other.
If any of Rohatinsky, Farmer, Goff, Roberts, Macchia, Alder, or Lovell get sick or injured, there are multiple people to take their place without having any significant effect on the team score. If any of NCS's top-5 get sick, there is simply nobody to replace them without taking a major hit.
NC State has one way to win - Hartman, Napoloen, Gapes, Michalak, and Engelhardt need to run their best. BYU has numerous ways that they can put together a winning score.

Just for reference, NC State's 1-5 gap at Nuttycombe was 41.8 seconds. 1-7 gap 1:22.8

BYU at prenats, 1-5 was 1:04.2. 1-7 was 1:15.2

It's true that NC State does need to tighten it up a bit but I can see NC State putting 4 in before BYU's #2.

Gapes did not run well and I see her improving a lot over her Nuttycombe performance. Same for Rauber & Putnam. I also believe that Englehardt can improve a bit though I sometimes wonder because I still consider her to primarily be a mid-distance talent.

And while Hutchins didn't run, why didn't she run? Do you know? Also, why did you say that Lovell didn't run? She did run.

We can all do this on paper a millions different ways but it will be settled on the course.

7 months ago 10/23/2025 8:37am EDT

re: DivIX Country

DivIX Country wrote:
DivIX Country wrote:
Oh, and let me add your phrasing, BYU has no way to win without Hutchins “running her best.” That is essential for BYU to even have a shot.
Go ahead and downvote, if you please, BYU fan, but you know you aren’t looking at it objectively when you trumpet the gap between NC State’s 5 & 6, but ignore the glaring gap between BYU’s 2 & 4. Which gap will have greater impact on scoring?

But honestly I don’t know what I’m saying. BYU looks rock solid and Oregon could threaten them.
I just like to argue for fun.

7 months ago 10/23/2025 8:42am EDT

re: OhioT&F

OhioT&F wrote:
BYU is going to win wrote:
BYU has 10 runners but NC State does not. They basically have 5 and have no room for error. There was a huge gap between Engelhardt and Rauber/Putnam at Nuttycombe - 38 seconds between #5 and #6 alone. At Pre-Nats, from #3 to #8 was only 21 seconds for BYU.
Another thing: as far as I know, NC State ran their entire "A" team. BYU did not run Hutchins or Lovell and that would put eight runners within 21 seconds of each other.
If any of Rohatinsky, Farmer, Goff, Roberts, Macchia, Alder, or Lovell get sick or injured, there are multiple people to take their place without having any significant effect on the team score. If any of NCS's top-5 get sick, there is simply nobody to replace them without taking a major hit.
NC State has one way to win - Hartman, Napoloen, Gapes, Michalak, and Engelhardt need to run their best. BYU has numerous ways that they can put together a winning score.
Just for reference, NC State's 1-5 gap at Nuttycombe was 41.8 seconds. 1-7 gap 1:22.8
BYU at prenats, 1-5 was 1:04.2. 1-7 was 1:15.2
It's true that NC State does need to tighten it up a bit but I can see NC State putting 4 in before BYU's #2.
Gapes did not run well and I see her improving a lot over her Nuttycombe performance. Same for Rauber & Putnam. I also believe that Englehardt can improve a bit though I sometimes wonder because I still consider her to primarily be a mid-distance talent.
And while Hutchins didn't run, why didn't she run? Do you know? Also, why did you say that Lovell didn't run? She did run.
We can all do this on paper a millions different ways but it will be settled on the course.

You think Michalak could even get underneath Chamberlain, after what the latter laid down at PreNats?🤔 Interesting.

7 months ago 10/23/2025 8:49am EDT

re: DivIX Country

DivIX Country wrote:
You think Michalak could even get underneath Chamberlain, after what the latter laid down at PreNats?🤔 Interesting.

Yes, I do. Hartman, Napoleon, Gapes, and Michalak all have the potential to. It's difficult to compare courses but Nuttycombe is appreciably more difficult than Gans Creek is. I don't like to compare times from different races even on the same course because the dynamics of the race are all different depending on who is in the race. Michalak still has a lot in the tank.

I also know that NC State was not tapered at all for Nuttycombe. They were hitting it hard up to the meet. I am not sure about BYU.

7 months ago 10/23/2025 8:52am EDT

re: DivIX Country

DivIX Country wrote:
OhioT&F wrote:
Just for reference, NC State's 1-5 gap at Nuttycombe was 41.8 seconds. 1-7 gap 1:22.8
BYU at prenats, 1-5 was 1:04.2. 1-7 was 1:15.2
It's true that NC State does need to tighten it up a bit but I can see NC State putting 4 in before BYU's #2.
Gapes did not run well and I see her improving a lot over her Nuttycombe performance. Same for Rauber & Putnam. I also believe that Englehardt can improve a bit though I sometimes wonder because I still consider her to primarily be a mid-distance talent.
And while Hutchins didn't run, why didn't she run? Do you know? Also, why did you say that Lovell didn't run? She did run.
We can all do this on paper a millions different ways but it will be settled on the course.
You think Michalak could even get underneath Chamberlain, after what the latter laid down at PreNats?🤔 Interesting.

Granted, Michalak covered Thomas Zimmer last week faster than Chamberlain ever has, but the latter, like Michalak, has improved significantly this season, and the flatter Missouri course plays to her advantage.

7 months ago 10/23/2025 9:53am EDT

re: BYU is going to win

BYU is going to win wrote:
BYU has 10 runners but NC State does not. They basically have 5 and have no room for error. There was a huge gap between Engelhardt and Rauber/Putnam at Nuttycombe - 38 seconds between #5 and #6 alone. At Pre-Nats, from #3 to #8 was only 21 seconds for BYU.
Another thing: as far as I know, NC State ran their entire "A" team. BYU did not run Hutchins or Lovell and that would put eight runners within 21 seconds of each other.
If any of Rohatinsky, Farmer, Goff, Roberts, Macchia, Alder, or Lovell get sick or injured, there are multiple people to take their place without having any significant effect on the team score. If any of NCS's top-5 get sick, there is simply nobody to replace them without taking a major hit.
NC State has one way to win - Hartman, Napoloen, Gapes, Michalak, and Engelhardt need to run their best. BYU has numerous ways that they can put together a winning score.

Lovell finished 18th at Pre-Nats in 19:57 so 3 to 9 in 21 seconds.

I am not sure what is up with Alder but I don't see any reason to write her off after her first race of the season. She has four weeks to get back into top shape. Last year she scored 31 points and Rohatinsky scored 33. If those two are your 4 and 5 and back to the same level BYU will be hard to beat.

Of course, that assumes Hutchins will be back to top form. She first started showing up in the team workout clips a couple weeks ago in the back of the pack so she has a lot of work to do. Odds are not good that both Hutchins and Alder will be back to top form.

At PreNats Farmer and Goff both ran the last K in 3:06 picking off 16 points and blowing past Thorvaldson and Blade. That is the same split as Hedengren and Chamberlain. It looks like both of them can run that course faster than what they showed. They finished 4 and 5 seconds behind Rohatinsky whose 15:48 TiC was her best ever. They would be the 6 and 7 if all the above are healthy and ready to go.

7 months ago 10/23/2025 5:40pm EDT

re: xcx

xcx wrote:
BYU is going to win wrote:
BYU has 10 runners but NC State does not. They basically have 5 and have no room for error. There was a huge gap between Engelhardt and Rauber/Putnam at Nuttycombe - 38 seconds between #5 and #6 alone. At Pre-Nats, from #3 to #8 was only 21 seconds for BYU.
Another thing: as far as I know, NC State ran their entire "A" team. BYU did not run Hutchins or Lovell and that would put eight runners within 21 seconds of each other.
If any of Rohatinsky, Farmer, Goff, Roberts, Macchia, Alder, or Lovell get sick or injured, there are multiple people to take their place without having any significant effect on the team score. If any of NCS's top-5 get sick, there is simply nobody to replace them without taking a major hit.
NC State has one way to win - Hartman, Napoloen, Gapes, Michalak, and Engelhardt need to run their best. BYU has numerous ways that they can put together a winning score.
Lovell finished 18th at Pre-Nats in 19:57 so 3 to 9 in 21 seconds.
I am not sure what is up with Alder but I don't see any reason to write her off after her first race of the season. She has four weeks to get back into top shape. Last year she scored 31 points and Rohatinsky scored 33. If those two are your 4 and 5 and back to the same level BYU will be hard to beat.
Of course, that assumes Hutchins will be back to top form. She first started showing up in the team workout clips a couple weeks ago in the back of the pack so she has a lot of work to do. Odds are not good that both Hutchins and Alder will be back to top form.
At PreNats Farmer and Goff both ran the last K in 3:06 picking off 16 points and blowing past Thorvaldson and Blade. That is the same split as Hedengren and Chamberlain. It looks like both of them can run that course faster than what they showed. They finished 4 and 5 seconds behind Rohatinsky whose 15:48 TiC was her best ever. They would be the 6 and 7 if all the above are healthy and ready to go.

Yes, this makes sense. But that's too difficult to predict. Therefore I think it will be Oregon + NC State at the top. That, and I don't like Diljeet's loud voice so I am biased.

7 months ago 10/23/2025 5:49pm EDT

re: Divl XCountry

You’re not funny impersonating others and stealing their handles, so what’s your point?

7 months ago 10/23/2025 6:05pm EDT

re: sim ulator

sim ulator wrote:
.
The last minute changes to top team's actual 7 runners at nats generally have more impact on team finish than say the lacctic rankings.

Maybe you know the answer to this question: for teams that qualify for the Championship, is there a minimum number of competitions that an athlete on the roster has to have competed in in order to be eligible to compete in the Championship race?

7 months ago 10/23/2025 6:10pm EDT

re: questioner of ncaa division 1

questioner of ncaa division 1 wrote:
sim ulator wrote:
.
The last minute changes to top team's actual 7 runners at nats generally have more impact on team finish than say the lacctic rankings.
Maybe you know the answer to this question: for teams that qualify for the Championship, is there a minimum number of competitions that an athlete on the roster has to have competed in in order to be eligible to compete in the Championship race?

AI search sent me to this document, possessing a chart which seems to indicate cross country requires 5 competitions (which obviously cannot be correct).

https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/committees/d1/compoversig/2024-25D1COC_ChampsEligibilityGuidance.pdf

7 months ago 10/23/2025 6:10pm EDT

re: questioner of ncaa division 1

questioner of ncaa division 1 wrote:
sim ulator wrote:
.
The last minute changes to top team's actual 7 runners at nats generally have more impact on team finish than say the lacctic rankings.
Maybe you know the answer to this question: for teams that qualify for the Championship, is there a minimum number of competitions that an athlete on the roster has to have competed in in order to be eligible to compete in the Championship race?

I may be wrong but I believe that an individual on a team that qualifies can run in the championship meet as the only meet of the season. Last year Amy Bunnage of Stanford only ran in the West regional prior to the championship.

7 months ago 10/23/2025 6:15pm EDT

re: OhioT&F

OhioT&F wrote:
questioner of ncaa division 1 wrote:
Maybe you know the answer to this question: for teams that qualify for the Championship, is there a minimum number of competitions that an athlete on the roster has to have competed in in order to be eligible to compete in the Championship race?
I may be wrong but I believe that an individual on a team that qualifies can run in the championship meet as the only meet of the season. Last year Amy Bunnage of Stanford only ran in the West regional prior to the championship.

So Amy Bunnage ran in one meet prior to the Championship. But you think individuals on a qualifying team do not need to run in any meet prior to the Championship? If that’s true, do teams have to meet some roster declaration deadline?

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