I think what is overlooked a bit is that a race is not only total time and the last lap but how the race developed.
JI ran like 56/57 + 53.xx in Paris for the last 2 laps. I do not know this for sure (of course) but it could have happend even if CH right now ran a slower race (like the Paris 5000) that that quicker penultimate lap would have fried him more and he would not close in a 53.x then.
Just my 0.02.
I always found it insane how fast those last 800 were for JI in 2023 and 2024 (1:50.x each). That last lap alone isn't the whole story. CH "only" ran like 61.4 and 52.6 for a 12:58 while JI close a slower race with a 56/57.x + 53.x.
Pikachu
a counter point or example kind of is that Katir actually had the fastest 800m in 2023WC. I don't know the exact split, but Katir was actually behind JI until like 400 to go, and the margin was really narrow at the finish line and they both closed in 52. I think many people believe Hocker is an even stronger opponent than Katir.
That said, it's impossible to know and say with certainty, so even in my first post, I only said 7:3, and perhaps it should be even 6:4. Hope Jakob gets healthy and they will duel it out in 2027 (I don't believe Hocker will do anything notable in 2026)
btw, a bit of a shout-out, your posts on training have helped me a lot!
so that's like 1 sec better. Wow, that makes a lot of difference in a 5k where if Jakob uses the proposed strategy - that is, bringing it out from 1 mile to go - and the 1600 is finished in 3:54 (or 3:37-38 pace) for a 3:27 guy!(remember, Hocker would surely be the one being paced there)
And what is the difference in the 3000m? Don´t you think hat is more relevant for their chances in he 5000m?
By the way: If Hocker only could draft until around 1050m as Jakob did in the DL Monaco 2024 PB race he would be 3:28 runner.
I actually already said I think Jakob would be faster in a paced 5k. In fact, he can break the WR, but we're talking about a championship 5k.
Hocker closed the Paris 1500 in 53, and didn't get to run a complete clean lane the whole way as well as even pacing with the advance of Wavelight though, never mind 2 rounds of running. It's disingenuous to discount all that and claim he would be a 3:28 guy don't you think?
The Millrose 3000m: You aren´t the first to claim that this 3000m was not run in peak shape.
But why is it then relatively the best race Hocker has ever run?
He is no. 6 on the all time 3000m list and gets 1282 points after IAAF´s OUTDOOR tabel.
His OG Paris 1500m - where he supposedly was in his best shape- makes him no. 8 all time and gives 1278 points.
And in Paris he drafted almost all the way whereas he front ran around 600m of the 3000m.
AND IF he wasn´t in his best shape why hasn´t he been able to come close relatively to that time neiher before nor later?
His 5000m PB makes him no. 117 on the all time list and gives him 1252 points.
His DL Lausanne1500m 2024 time at high 3:29 around 14 days after his Olympic 1500m gold gives him 1247 points. A race where he could draft all the way to the finish.
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So it is hard to see that he wasn´t peak shape in the Millrose 3000m.
You guys are so dense. Why is Hocker's placing on the all time 3k compared to the 1500m list important? It's not an event competed nearly as much as the 1500m. He's clearly in better shape now though than when he ran that 3k at milrose. 5 people in history have run faster than him in the 3k, but I really doubt 5 people could 12:58 in hot and humid conditions closing the last lap in 52 running in lane 2 the whole time. I feel like half these comments are AI slop. Use your heads people.
If anyone could close a 12:58 5k in 52 staying in lane 2 the whole time, it may be Jakob. But Hocker being in better shape now than in February should not be a debate.
a bit of a correction. the weather was 24C 68% (so 63F Dewpoint), so it wasn't ideal, but not too bad either.
For me, his 5k win has an asterisk. I can’t crown him as the best unless he beats Peak Jakob.
His win does not have an asterisk. What a ridiculous take, he won on the day.
For your other take, yes, Jakob would have won. The final kilometer was pedestrian. A lot of posters here focus on the first half of the race when really the last half is what matters. Jakobi s always the best in the latter stages.
I had to come back and comment on how embarrassing it is that you edited that last sentence in 14 minutes later LOL.
There's nothing embarrassing about editing a post whether it's 14 seconds later or 14 minutes later. I regularly edit my posts if I notice a mistake or if I want to add or rephrase something. That's why we have the function.
The only thing that's embarrassing is you not being able to support your claim that Peak Jakob would have won by explaining in detail how he would have defeated Hocker in Tokyo. You spent all that time citing incomparable races from the past, but you couldn't articulate exactly how Jakob would have won the Tokyo race in the way that it was run. I guess you're not so confident after all.
That “dreams” line has big 14 minutes in front of the mirror practicing comebacks that still don’t land energy.
Meanwhile, the actual numbers are simple: Jakob’s already gone 7:46/5:02 in Florence (in worse form than in 23'/24'), which is flat-out better than Hocker’s 7:52/5:06 in Tokyo. Case closed.
I think what is overlooked a bit is that a race is not only total time and the last lap but how the race developed.
JI ran like 56/57 + 53.xx in Paris for the last 2 laps. I do not know this for sure (of course) but it could have happend even if CH right now ran a slower race (like the Paris 5000) that that quicker penultimate lap would have fried him more and he would not close in a 53.x then.
Just my 0.02.
I always found it insane how fast those last 800 were for JI in 2023 and 2024 (1:50.x each). That last lap alone isn't the whole story. CH "only" ran like 61.4 and 52.6 for a 12:58 while JI close a slower race with a 56/57.x + 53.x.
Pikachu
a counter point or example kind of is that Katir actually had the fastest 800m in 2023WC. I don't know the exact split, but Katir was actually behind JI until like 400 to go, and the margin was really narrow at the finish line and they both closed in 52. I think many people believe Hocker is an even stronger opponent than Katir.
That said, it's impossible to know and say with certainty, so even in my first post, I only said 7:3, and perhaps it should be even 6:4. Hope Jakob gets healthy and they will duel it out in 2027 (I don't believe Hocker will do anything notable in 2026)
btw, a bit of a shout-out, your posts on training have helped me a lot!
just did a bit of digging out of curiosity, credit to @CarlFredrik-uo1cu on YT: Finishing times and closing times for the medalists: 1. Jakob: 13:11.30. Last 1000m: 2:21.07, last 800m: 1:50.65, last 600m: 1:19.90, last 400m: 52.45, last 200m: 26.20, last 100m: 13.25 2. Katir: 13:11.44. Last 1000m: 2:21.13, last 800m: 1:50.57, last 600m: 1:20.00, last 400m: 52.66, last 200m: 26.73, last 100m: 13.66 3. Krop: 13:12.28. Last 1000m: 2:22.34, last 800m: 1:51.66, last 600m: 1:20.93, last 400m: 53.04, last 200m: 26.62, last 100m: 13.24
Hocker’s weakness is the same as Beamish’s: The kick. -They can only kick because they have (a mental?) problem with following the pace, and therefore let them selves fall too fare back (but thus also getting enough left for a kick). And this isn’t purely my speculation -Beamish has expressed the same thoughts himself..
Cole has matured in the 1500m, and has no kick when he runs good. (His “kick” was a little slower than Nuguse’s in OG 2024, and barely faster than Kerr that was forced to run wide the whole last bend, and maybe also was a little cooked by following Jakob’s fast opening.).
In a race against peak Jakob Cole has to find a more mature pace in the 5000m, on expense of his kick. Or simply be out run by the Norwegian…
You call this a weakness when both conserved energy and just won in championship races. It’s only a weakness if it lowers their placing. This hasn’t been the case for Hocker historically, but for Beamish it’s a tad murkier given his injury history. Hocker doesn’t seem to get gapped in the big races, but rather is at the back of the top pack.
For Hocker, the concern is that Jakob gaps him substantially and he can’t make up the ground. Sure he can run 51-52 to close the race but if Jakob can get a second time gap and 6-10 bodies between them for Hocker to navigate…perhaps Hocker is kicking for silver not gold. I think it’s a somewhat fascinating question.
A notable thing is Hocker beat Mehary by 1.6s this year, Jakob beat him by 2.3s in Paris. Mehary is a better athlete this year, though. This indicates to me that the field this year was better, as I don’t think Lobalu was in that special form last year. He did run 7:27.68, but doubtless Ky Robinson would be right on that given his 7:30 indoors mark going out very aggressively . I think positions 2 and 3 were firing better than Kwemoi last year. 12:58 with a monster kick is hard. The real question becomes does Jakob properly time his squeeze and does Hocker lose contact. It doesn’t seem outlasting Hocker is going to work unless someone besides Jakob makes it a sub-12:50 race.
You're missing one big reason why runners were closer to Hocker in Tokyo than runners in Paris and even Budapest to Jakob, (the final 2k, 1600, 1000 etc). So that can muddle your claim that the field is better.
If Jakob’s stringing together 7:35/4:55 finishes, he’s not just beating the field, he’s breaking it.
I think what is overlooked a bit is that a race is not only total time and the last lap but how the race developed.
JI ran like 56/57 + 53.xx in Paris for the last 2 laps. I do not know this for sure (of course) but it could have happend even if CH right now ran a slower race (like the Paris 5000) that that quicker penultimate lap would have fried him more and he would not close in a 53.x then.
Just my 0.02.
I always found it insane how fast those last 800 were for JI in 2023 and 2024 (1:50.x each). That last lap alone isn't the whole story. CH "only" ran like 61.4 and 52.6 for a 12:58 while JI close a slower race with a 56/57.x + 53.x.
Pikachu
a counter point or example kind of is that Katir actually had the fastest 800m in 2023WC. I don't know the exact split, but Katir was actually behind JI until like 400 to go, and the margin was really narrow at the finish line and they both closed in 52. I think many people believe Hocker is an even stronger opponent than Katir.
That said, it's impossible to know and say with certainty, so even in my first post, I only said 7:3, and perhaps it should be even 6:4. Hope Jakob gets healthy and they will duel it out in 2027 (I don't believe Hocker will do anything notable in 2026)
btw, a bit of a shout-out, your posts on training have helped me a lot!
Katir and Hocker are not the same runner. Can't really compare them especially since one of them is a doper.
You call this a weakness when both conserved energy and just won in championship races. It’s only a weakness if it lowers their placing. This hasn’t been the case for Hocker historically, but for Beamish it’s a tad murkier given his injury history. Hocker doesn’t seem to get gapped in the big races, but rather is at the back of the top pack.
For Hocker, the concern is that Jakob gaps him substantially and he can’t make up the ground. Sure he can run 51-52 to close the race but if Jakob can get a second time gap and 6-10 bodies between them for Hocker to navigate…perhaps Hocker is kicking for silver not gold. I think it’s a somewhat fascinating question.
A notable thing is Hocker beat Mehary by 1.6s this year, Jakob beat him by 2.3s in Paris. Mehary is a better athlete this year, though. This indicates to me that the field this year was better, as I don’t think Lobalu was in that special form last year. He did run 7:27.68, but doubtless Ky Robinson would be right on that given his 7:30 indoors mark going out very aggressively . I think positions 2 and 3 were firing better than Kwemoi last year. 12:58 with a monster kick is hard. The real question becomes does Jakob properly time his squeeze and does Hocker lose contact. It doesn’t seem outlasting Hocker is going to work unless someone besides Jakob makes it a sub-12:50 race.
You're missing one big reason why runners were closer to Hocker in Tokyo than runners in Paris and even Budapest to Jakob, (the final 2k, 1600, 1000 etc). So that can muddle your claim that the field is better.
If Jakob’s stringing together 7:35/4:55 finishes, he’s not just beating the field, he’s breaking it.
Jakob ran the last 3000m at 12:38 pace with a 53 second last lap in Paris while looking easy. Nobody is beating that other than arguably Bekele 2008.
You’re hung up on 52.6 vs 53.6, but you’re ignoring the context. Jakob’s 53.6/25.6 in London came when he was 18, running 13:02, and he attempted to front-run the entire last 400m. Conversely, that’s a very different effort than sitting, drafting, and then swinging wide in lane 2. Since then, he’s shown over and over he can close even harder in Budapest and Paris, plus a 5:02 last 2k in Florence off a 12:48 pace. He’s proven he belongs in the “52-last-lap off sub-13” club. So no, a tenth of a second and a lane-2 move doesn’t change the bigger picture. Jakob has already matched that type of finish, from the front, at 18, and has only gotten better since. That’s why people don’t want to force an honest race when he’s on the line at his best, it just gives him more ways to beat you.
+1
I will add that Jakob in 2019 season ran 3:30.18 in the 1500m. Next year he ran 7:27 in the 3000m and 4:50 in the 2000m.
Since then he has improved almost 3.5 sec in the 1500m, almost 7 sec in the 2000m and about 9.5 sec in 3000m.
He must therefore also be much stronger on all parameters in the 5000m since the DL London 1500m 2019.
His 5000m PB from 2021 is of course also destined for a significant improvement in a paced race, provided he regains his best shape.
Yep. He can close in 52 in a sub 13 race, or else you would be admitting he hasn't improved at all. That's also not even his only option to win. Jakob is always the favorite in any 5000m he's in, including against Hocker.
You're missing one big reason why runners were closer to Hocker in Tokyo than runners in Paris and even Budapest to Jakob, (the final 2k, 1600, 1000 etc). So that can muddle your claim that the field is better.
If Jakob’s stringing together 7:35/4:55 finishes, he’s not just beating the field, he’s breaking it.
It’s a subjective thing. Jakob broke guys who in my estimation weren’t as good. Consider that this year the 10K champ in Gressier did come back (unlike Paris). The Ethiopian #2 was there (Mehary) etc. Kimeli looks like a better version of where Lobalu was last year. Jakob is tactically excellent in 5,000s and he could gap Hocker, but I am no longer sure of it.
There's nothing embarrassing about editing a post whether it's 14 seconds later or 14 minutes later. I regularly edit my posts if I notice a mistake or if I want to add or rephrase something. That's why we have the function.
The only thing that's embarrassing is you not being able to support your claim that Peak Jakob would have won by explaining in detail how he would have defeated Hocker in Tokyo. You spent all that time citing incomparable races from the past, but you couldn't articulate exactly how Jakob would have won the Tokyo race in the way that it was run. I guess you're not so confident after all.
That “dreams” line has big 14 minutes in front of the mirror practicing comebacks that still don’t land energy.
Meanwhile, the actual numbers are simple: Jakob’s already gone 7:46/5:02 in Florence (in worse form than in 23'/24'), which is flat-out better than Hocker’s 7:52/5:06 in Tokyo. Case closed.
LOL, sounds like you’re projecting.
Your inability to identify a path to victory for Jakob is your concession.
That “dreams” line has big 14 minutes in front of the mirror practicing comebacks that still don’t land energy.
Meanwhile, the actual numbers are simple: Jakob’s already gone 7:46/5:02 in Florence (in worse form than in 23'/24'), which is flat-out better than Hocker’s 7:52/5:06 in Tokyo. Case closed.
LOL, sounds like you’re projecting.
Your inability to identify a path to victory for Jakob is your concession.
Concession? Please. The only concession here was you spending 14 minutes workshopping a “dreams” zinger that still landed flat.
If you think laying out Florence’s 7:46/5:02 vs. Tokyo’s 7:52/5:06 isn’t a “path to victory,” that’s on you. Jakob’s already shown the exact scenario, you are just conceding that you don't care.
I don't have time to read through this thread, but I am pretty sure what I am saying has been said many times. "A sub-13 with at a 52x last lap and 12x last 100m championship race would be won by Cole 99% of the time in history no matter who is in the race." You could have put Geb, KB, Farah, Cheptegei, Kiplimo and a 'peak' Jacob in that race and results most likely would have been the same. The only reason I am not saying 100% for sure Cole could have won any race is because of the was the '07 Osaka race with Lagat and El 'G, both of those athletes could have matched Cole in a foot race to the finish line. No disrespect to Jacob, but like Farah's races, those championship races were not always as impressive in terms of overall quality of the race.
Long story short, Jakob and no other runner is history anyone say would have beat Hocker last week.
You're missing one big reason why runners were closer to Hocker in Tokyo than runners in Paris and even Budapest to Jakob, (the final 2k, 1600, 1000 etc). So that can muddle your claim that the field is better.
If Jakob’s stringing together 7:35/4:55 finishes, he’s not just beating the field, he’s breaking it.
It’s a subjective thing. Jakob broke guys who in my estimation weren’t as good. Consider that this year the 10K champ in Gressier did come back (unlike Paris). The Ethiopian #2 was there (Mehary) etc. Kimeli looks like a better version of where Lobalu was last year. Jakob is tactically excellent in 5,000s and he could gap Hocker, but I am no longer sure of it.
That's fair. But in the grand scheme of things it doesn't matter. Jakob had nearly identically splits from 3000 all the way down to 800 in Budapest. He faced three 12:40 guys who all were arguably better than Mehary and Gressier now ,and they still could not keep up and Jakob put a larger gap in a slower race (usually not how that works). I think many in this thread are underrating Jakob's finishes not just in the final lap, but all the way to the final 3k. It's hard to estimate, but I think that's more impressive than running even 7:51, then jogging for a few laps, then closing in 52. Of course, if Jakob leaves it to a 400m race like it was a few days ago, then you can't be sure he'll win it, but that's not how he races this event historically at his best. He has more options to win.
I don't have time to read through this thread, but I am pretty sure what I am saying has been said many times. "A sub-13 with at a 52x last lap and 12x last 100m championship race would be won by Cole 99% of the time in history no matter who is in the race." You could have put Geb, KB, Farah, Cheptegei, Kiplimo and a 'peak' Jacob in that race and results most likely would have been the same. The only reason I am not saying 100% for sure Cole could have won any race is because of the was the '07 Osaka race with Lagat and El 'G, both of those athletes could have matched Cole in a foot race to the finish line. No disrespect to Jacob, but like Farah's races, those championship races were not always as impressive in terms of overall quality of the race.
Long story short, Jakob and no other runner is history anyone say would have beat Hocker last week.
Yes, but that’s assuming you plop Jakob in right at the bell lap. Jakob isn’t just a last-lap kicker he’s demonstrated he can handle faster finishes. Budapest/Paris had a 7:35 final 3k, 4:55 final 2k, 2:21 final K. I don't think anyone has finished this fast ever on a comparable level other than Bekele in 2008. Consistent pressure is what we're looking for here. You're underrating Jakob here. He also ran a faster final 2k in Florence in his 12:48 (5:02). Jakob ran a 53 second last lap with a 25.x last 200m while front running part of the last lap as an 18 year old in 2019 (13:02 race), so there is no doubt Jakob can run 52 at the end of a sub 13 race. Long story short, Jakob could have beaten Hocker last week at his best.
Also El G wasn't in any finals in 2007.
This post was edited 9 minutes after it was posted.
Your inability to identify a path to victory for Jakob is your concession.
Concession? Please. The only concession here was you spending 14 minutes workshopping a “dreams” zinger that still landed flat.
If you think laying out Florence’s 7:46/5:02 vs. Tokyo’s 7:52/5:06 isn’t a “path to victory,” that’s on you. Jakob’s already shown the exact scenario, you are just conceding that you don't care.
It's weird that you have such a vivid imagination about how I spend my time, yet you can't imagine exactly how Jakob would have won in Tokyo.
Florence doesn't apply because Jakob didn't lead that race. Do you really think that leading is "the exact scenario" as drafting? Or are you suggesting that Jakob would have done what he did in Florence, which is wait until the final homestretch to try to kick to victory? Good luck with that strategy against Hocker!