Bellarmine is the school that took 5th in the merge at the CIF boys state meet in 2019 with no seniors. They had Colin Peattie and Nolan & Galen Topper that year.
Ohhhhh... my apologies... I've only been talking about the girls on my recent posts.
What are the chances that Mountain View (CCS) or Bellarmine CP (CCS) podium in Division 1?
Here are my latest projections for California merge . If it makes you feel better, I put St. Francis/Mtn. View in there. There's a huge gap from #6 down to them, but they should be much better than Cathedral Catholic, so maybe I should have mentioned them in my top 7:
The only Bellarmine I know of is in Washington. Do they go under another name?
7? St. Francis Mtn View 47 70 92 100 125 TOTAL: 434
Even though you misunderstood my question, I do appreciate your contribution to the conversation nonetheless. (I hope SF makes Top 10.) I do have one quick question, however. Why do you expect Montgomery to place so high in the CIF merge? If we’re looking at the same team in D3, they seem to only have 3 strong individuals and a #4 & #5 who will weigh them down a lot.
The teams are so close I wouldn't even try to rank them sequentially, as I just think about them in tiers. Right I see the top tier of NXN candidates as just 3 teams, Great Oak, ML King and Jesuit. Every other team listed, plus a few more, are in the next tier. Based on the strength of other regions returning teams, I don't see California getting an at-large at this moment in time, so I am looking for the 2 NXN teams to come from the top 3. Of course, last year at this time in my rankings, the clear #1 was Ventura. And Dana Hills was #8 with seemingly no hope for NXN because they were 4 deep. Then Dana Hills got a game changing transfer and Ventura got injuries. This leads me to not spend too much time on trying to rank them in such detail yet.
Great Oak has the best returning group based on the XC season (if you include Westin Brown), but Jesuit and ML King has better returning track times
Even though you misunderstood my question, I do appreciate your contribution to the conversation nonetheless. (I hope SF makes Top 10.) I do have one quick question, however. Why do you expect Montgomery to place so high in the CIF merge? If we’re looking at the same team in D3, they seem to only have 3 strong individuals and a #4 & #5 who will weigh them down a lot.
To be honest, I'm open to analyzing anyone past the #5 spot for girls in CA... but I don't think there's anyone worth looking beyond those top 5. I spend a lot of time looking at each runner on each team, if that team looks like they've got some potential, from a high-level glance. Montgomery appeared be one of those outsiders worth looking at... and they're definitely outsiders. I'll look at anyone you want me to look at, if you think it's worthwhile... especially if there are any transfers or incoming freshman who will be impactful.
Great Oak has the best returning group based on the XC season (if you include Westin Brown), but Jesuit and ML King has better returning track times
ML King has 3 pretty good male transfers. Only problem is that 1 of them is going to run against girls. This is an absolute travesty to girls sports, which should be protected beyond the limits of any political agenda.
On the girls' side, here are the returning scorers and my personal projections in the merge of returning girls at the top schools:
Buchanan: Health issues last season, but they're stacked as always and have 2 outstanding new Freshmen girls coming in (continued line of little sisters!). Assuming their former top runner (Lomelli) who DNF'd at 2023 State will finish 15th in the merge (she has top 10 potential), they take back the D1 State title from Santiago and will be the top seed, headed to NXN per the usual. It feel like these girls should be graduated by now... but they're all back, and Torosian, Buckley and Sundgren (9th) will all be back in 2026 also. Returning Scorers: 13/26/37/40/100 ---TOTAL: 216 (Projection: 140)
J Serra: Rumors have floated for months of a top athlete leaving, but they'll be fine since they may have the deepest squad in the state. They return all of their other scorers from 2023 and have an outstanding incoming Freshman (Streadbeck). Watch for Reese Holley to improve on a great Freshman year, and last year's transfers Elbaz and Polay to gain even more confidence. Returning Scorers: 9/20/21/80/91 --- TOTAL: 221 (Projection: 150)
Santiago: The defending D1 State Champs return all but Siana, and have a strong freshman who was injured late last year (Hill) that will need to fill that crucial #5 spot. Their #6 and #7 XC runners were on the #2 4x800 team in the State, so one of them may step up. Combe may push Blade to be even faster. Scary. Taylor Davis was All-State also, and has gained footspeed with her 800 times. Those 3 are the best 1-2-3 combination in the state, and that whole team clearly loves to compete together. 5 of their top 8 were Frosh or Soph last year. Returning Scorers: 2/10/17/66/100 --- TOTAL: 195 (Projection: 155)
Trabuco Hills: Barker has a solid supporting cast, but they're only 4 deep. Watts, Desormeau and Bayles have shown massive improvement. Watch for them to push hard for an upset of Santiago at CIF, but they lost 3 seniors last year. There will be a lot of pressure on unproven JV girls to give their top 4 a boost. Returning Scorers: 3/15/33/48/100 ---- TOTAL: 199 (Projection: 175)
Ventura: Sadie will be Sadie... but she might be distracted by her Olympic dreams, and may not want to go back to that muddy mess in Oregon. She clearly loves her teammates and they've all had an amazing track season together, so she might want to help them get to NXN as a team. True, Sax and Curtis joined her as the top 4x800 team in the State, and they're all returning. If one of their Juniors steps up, they might get that team berth to NXN. Returning Scorers: 1/24/60/63/100 ---- TOTAL: 248 (Projection: 185)
Others to watch: Cathedral Catholic: 5 of their 7 return from their D3 State Championship team. Each of them were 9th or 10th graders. Watch for them to make a big leap. Montgomery returns Hanne Thomsen, along with Kittelstrom and Lacefield who were All-State in D3. If their sophomores develop this year, they could sneak in to the mix.
Snubbing St. Francis (MV) girls from your Top 7 team list is wild given the fact they have finished #4-#9 at Clovis/State Merge in the last 2 years and again, return all of their scorers from last year. Most of the schools on your list lose some of their scorers and some aren’t even 5-runners deep!
St. Francis runners don't even talk to each other on long runs. 6th-10th place at the state meet is as far as they will go.
Does anyone think Aydon Stefanopoulos will go unchallenged for the states D2 individual title?
Him winning this year as already a massive upset over a very good field but if he doesn't get pneumonia again this year I don't see why not. He's gonna be challenged to the line for sure.
What are the chances that Mountain View (CCS) or Bellarmine CP (CCS) podium in Division 1?
Mountain View will be CCS champs this year. You heard it here first. Missing the state meet by 1 point last year changed those guys. Also, they're getting a transfer that runs 16:10 which joins what was likely a top-5 underclassmen group in California last year.
Also, Bellarmine is overrated. Their coach stopped trying like 3 years ago and they haven't been the same since.
What are the chances that Mountain View (CCS) or Bellarmine CP (CCS) podium in Division 1?
Mountain View will be CCS champs this year. You heard it here first. Missing the state meet by 1 point last year changed those guys. Also, they're getting a transfer that runs 16:10 which joins what was likely a top-5 underclassmen group in California last year.
Also, Bellarmine is overrated. Their coach stopped trying like 3 years ago and they haven't been the same since.
Lmao bro. Do you know me? You only responded to my replies (which I have no issue with btw). How do you know so much about St. Francis, Mountain View, and Los Gatos lol? (I’m only asking because if you know me, we might as well talk about this and not anonymously online.)
Does anyone think Aydon Stefanopoulos will go unchallenged for the states D2 individual title?
Him winning this year as already a massive upset over a very good field but if he doesn't get pneumonia again this year I don't see why not. He's gonna be challenged to the line for sure.
Stefanopoulos can actually be considered the favorite this year in D2, no? (And for NXN individuals?) He already has faster PR’s than Trey Caldwell, the only person I could see being close to him. Anyone else possibly?
What are the chances that Mountain View (CCS) or Bellarmine CP (CCS) podium in Division 1?
Mountain View will be CCS champs this year. You heard it here first. Missing the state meet by 1 point last year changed those guys. Also, they're getting a transfer that runs 16:10 which joins what was likely a top-5 underclassmen group in California last year.
Also, Bellarmine is overrated. Their coach stopped trying like 3 years ago and they haven't been the same since.
I agree. Mountain View is 8 runners deep now & have chip on their shoulder from barely missing states last year. That combined with the fact Bellarmine runners have lately been burnt out/injured by senior year may work in MV’s favor. Hopefully, their underclassmen continue to improve and bring the team some places.
Here are my latest projections for California merge . If it makes you feel better, I put St. Francis/Mtn. View in there. There's a huge gap from #6 down to them, but they should be much better than Cathedral Catholic, so maybe I should have mentioned them in my top 7:
The only Bellarmine I know of is in Washington. Do they go under another name?
7? St. Francis Mtn View 47 70 92 100 125 TOTAL: 434
Even though you misunderstood my question, I do appreciate your contribution to the conversation nonetheless. (I hope SF makes Top 10.) I do have one quick question, however. Why do you expect Montgomery to place so high in the CIF merge? If we’re looking at the same team in D3, they seem to only have 3 strong individuals and a #4 & #5 who will weigh them down a lot.
I’m also confused by why Montgomery will finish this high. They do return their whole team (including Hanne Thomson), but they only took 49th in the CIF merge. 7th place in the merge is an awfully huge jump from that.
I’m also confused by why Montgomery will finish this high.
Did you read my posts above? We're talking about girls here, you know, right?
There's a HUGE dropoff after the top 5 GIRLS teams. Montgomery appears to be the next best team to consider, based on their top 3 merging with 5, 22, and 30 points.
So, since my analysis as to assign points for every team's spots that aren't currently filled (voids left by graduated seniors), It's very subjective.
Mountain View will be CCS champs this year. You heard it here first. Missing the state meet by 1 point last year changed those guys. Also, they're getting a transfer that runs 16:10 which joins what was likely a top-5 underclassmen group in California last year.
Also, Bellarmine is overrated. Their coach stopped trying like 3 years ago and they haven't been the same since.
Lmao bro. Do you know me? You only responded to my replies (which I have no issue with btw). How do you know so much about St. Francis, Mountain View, and Los Gatos lol? (I’m only asking because if you know me, we might as well talk about this and not anonymously online.)
Not sure who you are but you've posted a lot about CCS so I assume you are from that area. I am a former SCVAL coach and runner.
Him winning this year as already a massive upset over a very good field but if he doesn't get pneumonia again this year I don't see why not. He's gonna be challenged to the line for sure.
Stefanopoulos can actually be considered the favorite this year in D2, no? (And for NXN individuals?) He already has faster PR’s than Trey Caldwell, the only person I could see being close to him. Anyone else possibly?
Alijah Murillo. Huge talent who made some massive improvements in fitness during track this year. Like Stefanopolous, he placed very highly at the state meet with a huge PR and performance pretty much out of nowhere his sophomore year. Caldwell is good too.
DSL will contend for a title at the state track meet next year if everyone comes back healthy.
I posted this in the other thread... but it's probably more appropriate here.
CA Girls, updated with a couple important transfers to Ventura and Trabuco. Buchanan clearly has the best top 5 runners, with the other 4 schools ridiculously close to one another, with Ventura now favored as the 2nd ranked team in the State, thanks to a transfer, and Trabuco, Santiago and J Serra are all neck and neck.
Based on top 5 scorers: #1 Buchanan 13Lomelli 16Torosian 26Sundgren 37Hutchison 40Buckley Total: 132
Since the California Girls top 5 is so intriguing and a very close battle, I crunched some numbers and ranked each team based on just their top 4, then by their top 3 and each team's top 2 runners.
If it were a 4-scorer sport, Santiago ranks best. They're also the best with their top 3 and top 2. They have 3 returning All-State runners with Blade/Combe/Davis, with Trabuco right on their tails with their top 2 and top 3 (Barker/Watts/Desormeau). J Serra also returns 3 All-Staters with Polay/Tasser/Garcia in Division 4.
Buchanan: Top 2 rank: 4 Top 3 rank: 4 Top 4 rank: 2
Ventura: Top 2 rank: 3 Top 3 rank: 5 Top 4 rank: 4
Santiago: Top 2 rank: 1 Top 3 rank: 1 Top 4 rank: 1
J Serra: Top 2 rank: 5 Top 3 rank: 3 Top 4 rank: 5
Trabuco: Top 2 rank: 2 Top 3 rank: 2 Top 4 rank: 3
I posted this in the other thread... but it's probably more appropriate here.
CA Girls, updated with a couple important transfers to Ventura and Trabuco. Buchanan clearly has the best top 5 runners, with the other 4 schools ridiculously close to one another, with Ventura now favored as the 2nd ranked team in the State, thanks to a transfer, and Trabuco, Santiago and J Serra are all neck and neck.
Based on top 5 scorers: #1 Buchanan 13Lomelli 16Torosian 26Sundgren 37Hutchison 40Buckley Total: 132