Here's a look at the 5000. Having seen that 1500, there is obviously an impact on my thinking here.
Contenders: Valby, Tuohy, Venters, Kemboi, Plourde, Tyynismaa, Jenks, Churchill, Chmiel, Baran
others: Maatoug, Thorvaldson, Mazza-Downie, Larkin, Ramsden, Logue
Not much mystery here. Valby will lead this trying to get away from closing speed of Kemboi, Plourde, Tyynismaa and Touhy.
Early leaders will be Valby, Venters, Kemboi, Churchill and Plourde. Chasers will be Chmiel, Tuohy, Tyynismaa, Jenks and Baran. Fatigue a big factor for the doublers in the heat. By the 3600 mark Chmiel has the pack at the back of the lead pack of Valby, Kemboi, Venters and Plourde. With 3 laps to go Tuohy overtakes the lead, leaving a group of Touhy, Valby, Venters, Kemboi, Tyynismaa and Churchill. Plourde and Chmiel fade.
On the final lap only Touhy, Kemboi and Tyynismaa remain. Tyynismaa in an upset outsprints Kemboi ftw. Touhy third followed by Valby, Venters, Churchill, Baran and Chmiel hanging on for 8th.
5000U scrapes together 17 points, to make 20 total and barely hang on to nip ARK for combined program of the year.
Surprises: Jenks, Thorvaldson or Maatoug could always pr and get in the scoring. Similarly, Mazza-Downie, Larkin and Logue could bounce back well from 10k, or Ramsden could use victory adrenaline to score again here.