My top 15 boys teams so far. 1. Newbury Park CA 2. Jesuit LA 3. Jesuit OR 4. Herriman UT 5. Carmel IN. Speed ratings show this. 6. Crater OR 7. Southlake Carroll TX 8. Granada CA 9. Great oak CA 10. Mountain view UT 11. Cherokee Trail CO
12. American Fork UT 13. Valor Christian CO. Costelow had an off race or it would have been close between them and Cherokee trail 14. CBA 15. Union Catholic
I think that teams 10-13 are even. It’s looking to be a tight battle between them at NXR.
I’m putting American Fork ahead of Valor because they have a more experienced coach. Cherokee trail is in front of them because they lost almost no one, and they are 7+ deep. American fork lost so many guys and only have 1 senior like Valor Christian.
Mountain View and Cherokee trail are mostly senior-built, Fork is mostly junior-built, and valor is mostly sophomore-built. I’m gonna keep CBA and Union Catholic in these rankings but at the bottom until they race. Last year CBA lost to Hendricken at NXR. And Union Catholic lost Brosnan and Plummer. They also barely ran any of their scorers in the first race.
1. Lex Young 2. Leo Young 3. Tyrone Gorze 4. Hunter Jones 5. Rocky Hanson 6. Simeon Birnbaum 7. Connor Burns 8. Kole Mathison 9. Kevin Sanchez 10. Tayson Echohawk 11. Carson Noecker 12. Liam Heninger 13. Jason Parra 14. Josiah Tostenson 15. Billie Issa Even though Burns’ and Mathison’s speed ratings are not as high as some others in the top 10, I am leaving them in there. They had not lost to anyone yet. Issa finished right behind Tostenson at Woodbridge so he deserves to be up here too. I think Parra and Tostenson are the best nonseniors at this point.
Honorable mention: Aaron Sahlman (returning from an injury), Aidan Cox (was ranked before. He ran a race and dominated with not that great of a time but a W is a W), Daniel Simmons, Sage Wilde, Connor Ackley, Noah Breker, Jackson Heidesch, Dev Doshi, Brayden Seymour, Patrick Koon, Marcus Reilly (if he cares about XC as much as track)
Honorable mention: Aaron Sahlman (returning from an injury), Aidan Cox (was ranked before. He ran a race and dominated with not that great of a time but a W is a W), Daniel Simmons, Sage Wilde, Connor Ackley, Noah Breker, Jackson Heidesch, Dev Doshi, Brayden Seymour, Patrick Koon, Marcus Reilly (if he cares about XC as much as track)
It’ll be interesting to see if these crazy high speed ratings look accurate as the season moves along. If so, these might be the top 2 non seniors most likely to crack the top 10.
Honorable mention: Aaron Sahlman (returning from an injury), Aidan Cox (was ranked before. He ran a race and dominated with not that great of a time but a W is a W), Daniel Simmons, Sage Wilde, Connor Ackley, Noah Breker, Jackson Heidesch, Dev Doshi, Brayden Seymour, Patrick Koon, Marcus Reilly (if he cares about XC as much as track)
It’ll be interesting to see if these crazy high speed ratings look accurate as the season moves along. If so, these might be the top 2 non seniors most likely to crack the top 10.
Yeah I’m not sure if those speed ratings are accurate. McGinn from FM got a 194 speed rating but he’s definitely not top 25 in the nation. This race was determined through the merge. FM was in the first heat that day and I read somewhere that the weather progressively got hotter
It’ll be interesting to see if these crazy high speed ratings look accurate as the season moves along. If so, these might be the top 2 non seniors most likely to crack the top 10.
Yeah I’m not sure if those speed ratings are accurate. McGinn from FM got a 194 speed rating but he’s definitely not top 25 in the nation. This race was determined through the merge. FM was in the first heat that day and I read somewhere that the weather progressively got hotter
Could be. I’ve also seen speed ratings artificially deflate some runners when only one or two heats at a big meet have to run in a quick passing windstorm. There is unfortunately not an easy solution that involves a reasonable amount of work.
Seth Norder does seem to have potential to be up there with those guys. He went sub-9 once last track season, something Nico Young didn’t do sophomore year. Doshi’s sophomore 3200 time was better than Nico’s as well. The only problem is that next year is the first time he will have to train on his own, unless another guy his level transfers in, like Parra.
It’s sad not to see Marcus Reilly or Carson noecker at any regional meets last year for hs XC. Would be great to see them both at a regional or a national meet. Whether Eastbay or NXN
Top 2 guys from Blanchet WA (Schneider and Recupero) probably deserve to be in the HM list, but both are on bikes I read somewhere. It sounds like if the returned they would still struggle to make NXN. Their #3 last year (Oliver) is now on the back end of their varsity. Jesuit and crater are the best teams in the nw, and Rocky Mountain already had 5 guys sub-16.
Ackley has the highest speed rating according Tullyrunners. Seth norder has the highest speed rating for nonseniors. The norder one seems realistic because he ran a sub-9 once last season
Decatur (GA) has to be in the conversation in the Southeast. They were the best team in Georgia last season and return the bulk of their top runners including William Carlton (1:58/4:11/9:20) and Jake Westing (1:56/4:18).
Best 2 boys teams in each region so far: California- Newbury Park CA / Granada CA
Northeast- CBA NJ / Union Catholic NJ Bishop Hendricken seems like it’s got potential. I haven’t seen much on them yet though.
New York- Corning NY / St Anthony’s NY Monroe Woodbury is up there too.
Southwest- Herriman UT / Mountain View UT Riverton has a nice pack of 1-5, but lacks a superstar that the 2 teams above have. Mountain View and Herriman both have 2 studs. Cherokee Trail is deep with 7+ sub-15 guys but I read somewhere that Liberty bell is short. Valor Christian looks to be even with them if they are on their A-game. Maybe Skyridge is really good too? Farmington is reloading it seems like. Behind Herriman, it’s a toss-up. But Mountain View beat all Utah teams except Herriman at the Timpanogos invite.
Midwest- Carmel IN / Plainfield South IL Center Grove has been incredibly underwhelming so far this season. Not quite sure what’s up there.
Southeast- Farragut TN / Belen Jesuit Prep FL McCallie was #2 on Meylan’s preseason ranking but we haven’t seen speed ratings from the yet. They ran their whole team for the first time and they are 8-deep. They put 7 under 16:10.
Heartland- Dowling Catholic IA / Lakeville North MN The Griak meet gave away the answer
South- Jesuit LA / Southlake Carroll TX Since Jesuit is doing RunningLane (maybe they will change their mind), second spot at NXR behind Carroll looks to go to either The Woodlands or Coppell.
Northwest- Jesuit OR / Crater OR Rocky Mountain got a strong top 3 but needs a 4 and 5 to improve. Bishop Blanchet has lots of time to get their top guys to full strength.
My top 10 boys team rankings now that CBA started to race:
1. Newbury Park CA. Pretty much a lock. It’s a race for second this year. 2. CBA NJ. Speed ratings show so. Very deep 1 through 7. They lost only 1 person from last year and are always a strong program so we should not be surprised they are this good. They always seem to do well even after losing pretty much their whole varsity team. 3. Jesuit LA. Very deep 1 through 8. Their top guy didn’t score at the southern showcase though. 4. Jesuit OR. Solid 1 through 4. The biggest question is, how close can their 5th get to their 4th? 5. Herriman UT. Won the Woodbridge invite. Same question here though. How close can their 5th get to their 4th? 6. Carmel IN. Milesplit had these guys higher than this but I kind of want to see them compete against the top teams in the nation. Got a strong 1-2 but their 3-5 are too iffy to move this team up higher than this. 7. Plainfield South IL. Looking to win the Illinois state meet this year since they pretty much nobody from last year. Got a solid 1-5. Milesplit has them higher than this but I would like them to race against some out-of-state competition. 8. Crater OR. Got a strong 1-6 with 2 nationally elite guys. With 5 of those guys back next year they will be even better. 2nd at Woodbridge. 9. Southlake Carroll TX. Got 3rd at Woodbridge. Their depth is unmatched. Their depth outside of their varsity is something we don’t see very often. 10. Granada CA. 4th at Woodbridge. Solid 1-7. Lost almost nobody from last year.
I decided to just do a top 10 because for 11th place it seems like a toss-up to me.
As someone familiar with the NY running scene, I will tell you this. Corning will finish in the top 10 at NXN this fall, and St. Anthony's will not qualify.
That’s not what their speed ratings from yesterday are showing
Actually, there is a chance where you could still possibly be right.
Monroe Woodbury is another team that has entered the chat. They have a strong 1-2. They lost their 4-7 but they did return their 1-3 from last year.
They also added a 4th and 5th to their third.
Corning is still the best team of all the best NY teams. They are senior heavy and seem to have everything. So I’m sure they are hungriest this year to by number 1.
The second spot will be between St A and Monroe Woodbury.
Issue with St A. Although they have nice 1-7 spread they don’t have a “low stick”. Aidan B. is still really good though.
Issue with MW. They don’t have a 6/7. So their top 5 better be on at NXR. Not having a 6/7 to back them up puts pressure on them. If Corning wins and MW ties St A at NXR, MW doesn’t make NXN.
FM would be in this conversation if their 4/5 were close to their 3rd. But at this point there’s not enough time for that to happen anymore. This needed to happen over the summer. This is what MW did, and what FM didn’t do.
Fairport dominated some decent teams last weekend but they lost to Saratoga in vvs. I don’t see Saratoga going this year. They built some depth and returned almost everyone but they lost a guy who’s last name is Bush who was their 1st guy junior and senior year.