Three more Kenyans suspended in one day and the doping apologists immediately are out in force to claim that I'm 'obsessed' or 'racist' for posting the link, while the post itself gets universally downvoted.
Welcome to LetsDope.
Defender of the guy who set us down the path of middle distance runners doping, Seb Coe
The fact is there is no red flags for Coe aside from the fact that he was very fast (and his 800m and 1000m WR are still in the top 3) and his blood disorder. It's been done to death here that the whole point of autologous blood doping, which is what was done in the 70's and 80's, is that you don't get infected (as well as it being more difficult to detect). So it's not really a red flag at all, unlike for example Morcelli's blood problems which could have been caused by taking too much EPO.
The further facts are that Coe was instrumental in making blood doping illegal in 1986, and as World Athletics head has achieved what was thought near impossible - gone a long way to clean up the doping free for all in East Africa. As a consequence, athletics, in particular middle-distance running, is achieving a rennaisance in GB and elsewhere outside of the former doping hotspots of Africa.
You always make the unsupported points about Kenya or Ethiopia suffering in the post-EPO test era. What is your evidence?
Have you looked at the marathon/half-marathon lists/depth for each of those two countries? Is EPO only effective for races if 1,500-10,000 all of a sudden?
I think everyone acknowledges (besides one poster here) that North Africa has fallen off the most in the wake of improved anti-doping efforts. But you just throw out your East Africa stuff unsupported blind to the fact Kenyan/Ethiopian success has continued unabated.
I have posted again and again clear statistical evidence that Kenyan times have declined, and performances declined massively relative to Europe/USA/Australasia. In 2001 there were just two non Hispanic/Kenyan/North African (descent) runners in the top 20 1500m times - at number 18 and 19. In 2021 there were eight, including three of the top 5.
In 2001 eight Kenyans ran under 3:32. In 2021, despite a near doubling of the Kenyan population, and cheater shoes and mondo V2.0 tracks, only 3 did so.
Lombard's changed training involved running less and doing some sorts of exercises on a board in his driveway. AND, he took EPO. I actually was in Ireland just after Lombard made his "breakthrough." I found the issue of "Irish Runner" that had the story about him on a newsstand, read about the lowered miles, the exercises on the board, and thought it was a load of crap, that he'd taken EPO, had it work much better than he'd anticipated, and was trying really hard to explain what happened other than with the real explanation.
Maybe I had no justification for thinking he'd used EPO, but justifiably or not, I was right. Would I have accused him publicly with nothing more than my suspicions? Probably not. But with the presence of EPO in the sport and the POSSIBILITY that it can lead to Lombardesque improvements I believe it certainly is justified to question the legitimacy of performances that seem too good to be true and that suspicion is even more justifiable if the performer is associated with a country, club, coach, etc., that has a history of PED use.
You keep wanting controlled studies and double blind experiments as your criteria for believing EPO improves performances which essentially means you'll never have your criteria met because you're never going to have those things done with elite athletes.
I haven't seen the massive decline in performances you suggest are linked to increased testing.
Then you're being willfully obstinate. Morocco's men almost disappeared off the map, while Kenya's 5K times went backwards 15 seconds. Similar in the 1500m, even before you scrub the times of the dope cheats Kiprop and Manangoi.
Show us the data.
Morocco's men are still doping and getting caught. Morocco's decline can be pretty much traced to one athlete, who may or may not have doped, who retired at the end of a long and prolific career.
Kenya went backwards 15 seconds? In 2020, Kimeli ran 12:51.78. The fastest Kenyan was Komen, at 12 seconds faster. The next fastest is Kipchoge, at 5 seconds faster. Then Isaah Koech at 3 seconds faster.
Manangoi is not a dope cheat. Managoi and Cheruiyiot both ran 3:28s recently -- putting them both 5th and 6th best Kenyans behind Lagat, Kiprop, Kiplagat and Ngeny. Cheruiyiot's performance is in the top-20 still (10 of which belongs to El G).
Unless you are going for a record, a few seconds in the 5000m and a couple seconds in the 1500m is in the noise.
There has been a drop in quantity -- because the money dried up on the track -- but the quality is still there.
Lombard's changed training involved running less and doing some sorts of exercises on a board in his driveway. AND, he took EPO. I actually was in Ireland just after Lombard made his "breakthrough." I found the issue of "Irish Runner" that had the story about him on a newsstand, read about the lowered miles, the exercises on the board, and thought it was a load of crap, that he'd taken EPO, had it work much better than he'd anticipated, and was trying really hard to explain what happened other than with the real explanation.
Maybe I had no justification for thinking he'd used EPO, but justifiably or not, I was right. Would I have accused him publicly with nothing more than my suspicions? Probably not. But with the presence of EPO in the sport and the POSSIBILITY that it can lead to Lombardesque improvements I believe it certainly is justified to question the legitimacy of performances that seem too good to be true and that suspicion is even more justifiable if the performer is associated with a country, club, coach, etc., that has a history of PED use.
You keep wanting controlled studies and double blind experiments as your criteria for believing EPO improves performances which essentially means you'll never have your criteria met because you're never going to have those things done with elite athletes.
Training is the biggest confounder. If you are doing the wrong training, with the wrong coach, you are not realizing your potential. Recall your own story just now, how changing your training brought huge gains for you in the marathon. How were your performances before and after Lydiard training, tailored for you? Some might say that was too good to be true. Look at Kiera D'Amato, with similar marathon progression as you -- some say that was too good to be true. Again "wejo" had a similar improvement, after 5 years of university.
I'll ask one of my old questions again -- if Lombard could achieve such huge gains with EPO, why did we have to wait so long for Chris Solinsky to become the first non-African under 27:00, just over 20 years after Arturo Barrios ran 27:08? In the 20 years of EPO-era before the ABP -- no non-African ran 10K faster than Barrios. Once testing increased with the ABP -- we've had 4 non-African athletes do it.
Double-blind controlled results for sub-elite athletes would already be an improvement. We had a double-blind experiment with no significant time trial difference on sub-elite cyclists. If it's the emporer's clothes for sub-elites, how much does that diminish for top athletes?
Sigh. It took me five years. It took Lombard weeks. I got to what Europeans might have called a decent club runner. Lombard set a national record. I don't know what Solinsky has to do with anything here. I give up. This is pointless.
You always make the unsupported points about Kenya or Ethiopia suffering in the post-EPO test era. What is your evidence?
Have you looked at the marathon/half-marathon lists/depth for each of those two countries? Is EPO only effective for races if 1,500-10,000 all of a sudden?
I think everyone acknowledges (besides one poster here) that North Africa has fallen off the most in the wake of improved anti-doping efforts. But you just throw out your East Africa stuff unsupported blind to the fact Kenyan/Ethiopian success has continued unabated.
I have posted again and again clear statistical evidence that Kenyan times have declined, and performances declined massively relative to Europe/USA/Australasia. In 2001 there were just two non Hispanic/Kenyan/North African (descent) runners in the top 20 1500m times - at number 18 and 19. In 2021 there were eight, including three of the top 5.
In 2001 eight Kenyans ran under 3:32. In 2021, despite a near doubling of the Kenyan population, and cheater shoes and mondo V2.0 tracks, only 3 did so.
Continue dreaming of the "Renaissance" ... your so called "white" will not rise until a "black" African ashame them at home like what have done Moughit, Kipketer, Alain Mimoun, Hassan, Mo Farah ... and the long coming list.
Vous bouffez trop en Europe au point d'avoir atteint l’obésité tout en continuant de rêver du temps révolu.
I have posted again and again clear statistical evidence that Kenyan times have declined, and performances declined massively relative to Europe/USA/Australasia. In 2001 there were just two non Hispanic/Kenyan/North African (descent) runners in the top 20 1500m times - at number 18 and 19. In 2021 there were eight, including three of the top 5.
In 2001 eight Kenyans ran under 3:32. In 2021, despite a near doubling of the Kenyan population, and cheater shoes and mondo V2.0 tracks, only 3 did so.
Interesting you pay no attention to the roads where the money has gone and many of the the distance athletes have too. Also Kenya goes 1-2 in the 800 and has 7 athletes under 1:44…guess that doesn’t matter either. Does EPO only work for the 1500? Oh Faith Kipyegon? Only works for men then?
We’ve gone over it a 100 times but let’s just note that Great Britain and US who had respectable runners in the 80s did not suck (with a few exceptions like Kennedy) from 1993-2011 because of the EPO era…they sucked because of bad coaching/training/development you name it.
Sigh. It took me five years. It took Lombard weeks. I got to what Europeans might have called a decent club runner. Lombard set a national record. I don't know what Solinsky has to do with anything here. I give up. This is pointless.
It is pointless if all you want to do is defend your right to be suspicious, and once in a while, you were "proved" right.
My point is not deciding whether or how much EPO helped Lombard when he was weak, but whether we can rationally project Lombard's experience onto other record holders, or hundreds of East Africans, or their coaches.
It took D'Amato years too, but that didn't stop some from saying an American record was "too good to be true".
Lombard signficantly changed his training, and took EPO. "Wejo" showed us what is possible with changing your training -- so did you.
Solinsky shows us that what happened to Lombard was not a general rule in the EPO-era, for 90% of the world population, for 2 decades.
You believe suspicion is justified, and I believe that suspicion not justified based on performance alone.
Interesting you pay no attention to the roads where the money has gone and many of the the distance athletes have too. Also Kenya goes 1-2 in the 800 and has 7 athletes under 1:44…guess that doesn’t matter either. Does EPO only work for the 1500? Oh Faith Kipyegon? Only works for men then?
We’ve gone over it a 100 times but let’s just note that Great Britain and US who had respectable runners in the 80s did not suck (with a few exceptions like Kennedy) from 1993-2011 because of the EPO era…they sucked because of bad coaching/training/development you name it.
Coevett bases most of his ideas about the Kenyans on the 1500m -- an event where Kenya dominated the least, and improvements in the EPO-era were the smallest. For example, his renaissance is non-existant in the marathon.
I think people under-estimate the impact of how Coe changed "western" training in the '90s, shifting the emphasis to lower mileage with more intensity. But nothing short of mass reduction of 20-40 pounds, and lengthy training at altitude will cause non-Africans to beat the best East Africans. We saw a glimpse of this with Ryan Hall.
Interesting you pay no attention to the roads where the money has gone and many of the the distance athletes have too. Also Kenya goes 1-2 in the 800 and has 7 athletes under 1:44…guess that doesn’t matter either. Does EPO only work for the 1500? Oh Faith Kipyegon? Only works for men then?
We’ve gone over it a 100 times but let’s just note that Great Britain and US who had respectable runners in the 80s did not suck (with a few exceptions like Kennedy) from 1993-2011 because of the EPO era…they sucked because of bad coaching/training/development you name it.
Coevett bases most of his ideas about the Kenyans on the 1500m -- an event where Kenya dominated the least, and improvements in the EPO-era were the smallest. For example, his renaissance is non-existant in the marathon.
I think people under-estimate the impact of how Coe changed "western" training in the '90s, shifting the emphasis to lower mileage with more intensity. But nothing short of mass reduction of 20-40 pounds, and lengthy training at altitude will cause non-Africans to beat the best East Africans. We saw a glimpse of this with Ryan Hall.
No I don't. I just don't have time to repeat the same stats and arguments again and again like Groundhog Day. I just posted the 1500m as an example. It's even more apparent at 5000m and 10000m, and even at 800m. And that ridiculous 'gone to the roads' argument. Sure there are loads of sub 3:30 1500m Kenyans who have elected to devote themselves to winning the Bangkok half-marathon and a $5000 winners cheque.
I thought you claimed that you didn't subscribe to the racist view that East Africans have a profound difference in their DNA which enables them to dominate distance running? I honestly believed that you were one of the only hardcore doping apologists here who wasn't also a hardcore racist. No doubt you upvoted Passant's previous post. BTW, have you heard of Jakob Ingebrigtsen?
Lombard's changed training involved running less and doing some sorts of exercises on a board in his driveway. AND, he took EPO. I actually was in Ireland just after Lombard made his "breakthrough." I found the issue of "Irish Runner" that had the story about him on a newsstand, read about the lowered miles, the exercises on the board, and thought it was a load of crap, that he'd taken EPO, had it work much better than he'd anticipated, and was trying really hard to explain what happened other than with the real explanation.
Maybe I had no justification for thinking he'd used EPO, but justifiably or not, I was right. Would I have accused him publicly with nothing more than my suspicions? Probably not. But with the presence of EPO in the sport and the POSSIBILITY that it can lead to Lombardesque improvements I believe it certainly is justified to question the legitimacy of performances that seem too good to be true and that suspicion is even more justifiable if the performer is associated with a country, club, coach, etc., that has a history of PED use.
You keep wanting controlled studies and double blind experiments as your criteria for believing EPO improves performances which essentially means you'll never have your criteria met because you're never going to have those things done with elite athletes.
You're of course right HRE.No one can improve from 30 min 10 k to 27:40 just by decrease mileage and increase quality. I hope everyone understand this ?Just add it's very easy to improve by reducing mileage, but not that much.
You're of course right HRE.No one can improve from 30 min 10 k to 27:40 just by decrease mileage and increase quality. I hope everyone understand this ?Just add it's very easy to improve by reducing mileage, but not that much.
A 30:10 minute runner cannot use EPO to run 27:40 either. Most "unofficial" estimates for EPO for 10K is 40 second gain, or 29:30.
But an unrealized 27:40 runner, with the wrong training, can easily run 30:10, and a good coach is able to correct mistakes that prevent athletes from realizing their potential.
For Coevett. It's obvious that you are the one with multi-names that was spreading over LRC all these years. Here is an article translated for you.
You never hear what say the runners until they are from your country.
July 29, 2002 Belgian-Moroccan runner Mourhit: I am innocent of the accusation of doping Rabat: «Asharq Al-Awsat»
Belgian runner (of Moroccan origin) Mohamed Mourhit confirmed that he is innocent of the charge of taking banned stimulants, considering this accusation unfair to him. Mourhit, who is currently accompanied by his family members in Rabat, said: "I am not a cheater, and I have never used erythropoietin or anything else," adding: "Last year I underwent more than ten tests, whether during competitions or during training. For sudden tests in Ifrane, where I was training, and all of them were negative.” "I don't understand what is the motive for taking steroids before the World Half Marathon Championships, in which I had no ambition to climb to the podium, so I decided to participate in it in order to help the Belgian team occupy an advanced position in the standings," asked Mughith, the world champion in cross-country sprinting in 2000 and 2001. According to the difference. This proposal was confirmed by the former Secretary-General of the Belgian Athletics Federation, and business manager for Mohamed Mourhit, Wilfried Mirth, organizer of the Brussels Forum. Mourhit did not hide his surprise when he learned of the news. He said, "I was astonished when I learned the news, but I reiterate that I am innocent of this accusation that was attached to a group of runners in the world, and their innocence was proven later." "I asked for a counter-test in a place other than the Lausanne laboratory, in which the first examination was conducted, but to no avail," said Mourhit, holder of European records at distances of 3000, 5000 and 10000 meters. But he did not rule out that the sample that was analyzed was not his, and said, "I do not rule out that there was something wrong, as if the sample that was analyzed was not mine, because such things have happened before." Mourhit confirmed that he will defend his innocence, whether before this committee or before the relevant committee of the International Association of Athletics Federations. Last Friday, IAAF Communications Director Nick Davis revealed that the result of the sudden examination that Mourhit underwent on May 5, two days before the World Half Marathon Championships in Brussels, was positive. Davis said traces of erythropoietin (EPO) and a diuretic were found in blood and urine samples.
Just checking the IAAF rankings for this year. I know it's early days in the season, but only one Moroccan has broken 3:40 so far - Abdelaati IGUIDER 3:36, who is 31 and appears to be in the twilight of his career (didn't run...
No I don't. I just don't have time to repeat the same stats and arguments again and again like Groundhog Day. I just posted the 1500m as an example. It's even more apparent at 5000m and 10000m, and even at 800m. And that ridiculous 'gone to the roads' argument. Sure there are loads of sub 3:30 1500m Kenyans who have elected to devote themselves to winning the Bangkok half-marathon and a $5000 winners cheque.
I thought you claimed that you didn't subscribe to the racist view that East Africans have a profound difference in their DNA which enables them to dominate distance running? I honestly believed that you were one of the only hardcore doping apologists here who wasn't also a hardcore racist. No doubt you upvoted Passant's previous post. BTW, have you heard of Jakob Ingebrigtsen?
I just looked for your alleged 15 seconds in the 5000m and didn't find it.
The 10000m event has pretty much disappeared from the track, greatly reducing the number of opportunities.
Mo Farah ran the 6th fastest time ever (at that time), and 1500m wasn't even his event.
I didn't say "difference in DNA" here either. I said "mass reduction" and "training at altitude". Losing weight is simply physics: W=F*d=(1/2m*v^2)*d. It can be more a little more complicated when you consider heat dissipation and air resistance, both of which favor less mass. Training at altitude is a little more complicated physiology. The way "most rational people" would interpret my advice is that DNA doesn't matter.
Your last sentence is semi accurate but an oversimplification. I believe suspicion based on performance is justified if there are circumstances that arouse suspicion. Both Derek Clayton and Ron Clarke made improvements to world records that were so dramatic that I'm sure I'd have been suspicious if something like EPO was available at the time. But it wasn't. Lombard's improvements came at a time when EPO was available. I was as suspicious as could be that he'd taken EPO and I was right.
Now it is. And you don't have just one or two superstars blowing away an old record by a huge margin. You have armies of people beating previous records or approaching them. I might possibly believe that it's possible for a very exceptional person here and there to turn in spectacular performances but when they're like ants at a party in an era when we know there are drugs that show strong evidence of helping you run faster than you could on your own. Clarke's and Clayton's performances stood out. It took years for anyone to get close to them.
At some point almost everyone will encounter some sort of performance that arouses suspicion mostly because it just seems too good to be true. When Barry Bonds was on his way to MLB career and single season home run records loads of people suspected PED help. And loads of people were right. If you're consistent you'll argue that we don't know how many home runs Bonds would have it without using PEDs and you'd be right. But here again, the suspicion certainly was justified.
I do really want to be done with this thread. It's pointless because neither of us is going to convince the other that he's right and no matter which of us is right it has no impact on what goes on in the sport. But I also want to ask you this. I'm 69. If somehow I turned up at a fall marathon this year and ran a low 2:30s time would you suspect I'd cheated? If the timing mats all recorded me as running past them and all of the times were consistent with running that kind of time, would you be more likely to think I'd found some amazing way to run that fast at my age or that I found a really good way to cheat?
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