Irving wrote:
I’m not twisting anything. I’m just repeating YOUR words about the market being risky.
Perception of risk and the factors identifying risk can operate independently.
Irving wrote:
I’m not twisting anything. I’m just repeating YOUR words about the market being risky.
Perception of risk and the factors identifying risk can operate independently.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Irving wrote:
I’m not twisting anything. I’m just repeating YOUR words about the market being risky.
Perception of risk and the factors identifying risk can operate independently.
That doesn’t change the fact that you outlined the risks inherent in the March 2015 market and recommended being in cash as a result. Of course, hindsight is 20/20, but you were clearly wrong.
Irving wrote:
That doesn’t change the fact that you outlined the risks inherent in the March 2015 market and recommended being in cash as a result. Of course, hindsight is 20/20, but you were clearly wrong.
You're wasting your time. He believes he has been spot on with his assessment of market performance.
Up to this point his comments have had "0" credibility as it relates to what the market has done.
Irving wrote:... you outlined the risks inherent in the March 2015 market and recommended being in cash as a result. Of course, hindsight is 20/20, but you were clearly wrong.
Can you save me the trouble of hunting... what exactly did he write?
BTW - being wrong predicting the market is not something anyone ought to be ashamed of, to my way of thinking. When one guesses right, it pretty much boils down to good luck.
So far as I can tell, Igy has been recommending a conservative approach, based on sound, accepted principles. A lot of people have made a lot of money ignoring that advice, and good for them. At some point though, the (little?) chickens will come home to roost... And don't get me wrong, I'm not on board with sitting out of the market, in fact I'm all in, although not in the US market.
OO wrote:
BTW - being wrong predicting the market is not something anyone ought to be ashamed of, to my way of thinking. When one guesses right, it pretty much boils down to good luck
Believe me, he's not ashamed. He will tell you, he has guessed right, and it was not luck. It was skillful analysis, study of graphs and charts, commentary from experts like John Hussman etc.
mellon wrote:Believe me, he's not ashamed. He will tell you, he has guessed right, and it was not luck. It was skillful analysis, study of graphs and charts, commentary from experts like John Hussman etc.
Do comments like this add any value to the discussion? I think you guys have made your point, over and over. Is it possible to reduce the noise and try to exchange useful ideas and information?
OO wrote:
mellon wrote:Believe me, he's not ashamed. He will tell you, he has guessed right, and it was not luck. It was skillful analysis, study of graphs and charts, commentary from experts like John Hussman etc.
Do comments like this add any value to the discussion? I think you guys have made your point, over and over. Is it possible to reduce the noise and try to exchange useful ideas and information?
You seem to be forgetting Bill's Law:
"As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of it being reduced to endless prattle between at least one lunatic and one or more individuals who simply enjoy poking the lunatic approaches 1"
This "discussion" has long since surpassed the requisite length for Bill's law to kick in with a vengeance.
Bill's Law wrote:
OO wrote:
Do comments like this add any value to the discussion? I think you guys have made your point, over and over. Is it possible to reduce the noise and try to exchange useful ideas and information?
You seem to be forgetting Bill's Law:
"As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of it being reduced to endless prattle between at least one lunatic and one or more individuals who simply enjoy poking the lunatic approaches 1"
This "discussion" has long since surpassed the requisite length for Bill's law to kick in with a vengeance.
OK - Since you've thrown up a white flag under a couple of your many handles, I for one will back off.
OO wrote:
Irving wrote:... you outlined the risks inherent in the March 2015 market and recommended being in cash as a result. Of course, hindsight is 20/20, but you were clearly wrong.
Can you save me the trouble of hunting... what exactly did he write?
From the previous page...
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
What he said on 3/2/2015
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
The risk in the stock market is under appreciated. QE has distorted equity prices and the next big move is down rather than up. The Schiller PE is 27 and valuations are stretched when measured against other valuation models. Remember, the stock market has had two 50% down markets in the past fifteen years. The fifteen year average compounded return on the S&P is only 4.3%, which is inferior to treasuries. Treasuries are overvalued as well. Cash is the superior asset class when risk returns to the market.
OO wrote:
Do comments like this add any value to the discussion?
"CASH IS THE SUPERIOR ASSET CLASS" Igy Quote (March 2015)
You are correct. They don't!
OO wrote:
mellon wrote:Believe me, he's not ashamed. He will tell you, he has guessed right, and it was not luck. It was skillful analysis, study of graphs and charts, commentary from experts like John Hussman etc.
Do comments like this add any value to the discussion? I think you guys have made your point, over and over. Is it possible to reduce the noise and try to exchange useful ideas and information?
OO,
You are too rational for most posters on this thread. The typical DGTD poster is “yippie the market is up, look how smart I am,” rarely offering any justification for their view. If one posts anything negative about the market expect instant reprisals and twisting. It is easy to understand their angst, you are challenging their religion.
Igy
Irving wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Perception of risk and the factors identifying risk can operate independently.
That doesn’t change the fact that you outlined the risks inherent in the March 2015 market and recommended being in cash as a result. Of course, hindsight is 20/20, but you were clearly wrong.
Ah, I did not recommend anything. So you are clearly a jerk, and that is 20/20 and not in hindsight.
OO wrote:
Irving wrote:... you outlined the risks inherent in the March 2015 market and recommended being in cash as a result. Of course, hindsight is 20/20, but you were clearly wrong.
Can you save me the trouble of hunting... what exactly did he write?
BTW - being wrong predicting the market is not something anyone ought to be ashamed of, to my way of thinking. When one guesses right, it pretty much boils down to good luck.
So far as I can tell, Igy has been recommending a conservative approach, based on sound, accepted principles. A lot of people have made a lot of money ignoring that advice, and good for them. At some point though, the (little?) chickens will come home to roost... And don't get me wrong, I'm not on board with sitting out of the market, in fact I'm all in, although not in the US market.
OO,
You are correct in an interpretation of what I said. But that challenges the DGTD meme of “there is never a time not to buy stocks.”
Igy
mellon wrote:
Bill's Law wrote:
You seem to be forgetting Bill's Law:
"As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of it being reduced to endless prattle between at least one lunatic and one or more individuals who simply enjoy poking the lunatic approaches 1"
This "discussion" has long since surpassed the requisite length for Bill's law to kick in with a vengeance.
OK - Since you've thrown up a white flag under a couple of your many handles, I for one will back off.
Sorry Mellon not me. So continue the harassment of the poster OO. You are such a fine person, aren’t you.
Purple Martin wrote:
OO wrote:
Do comments like this add any value to the discussion?
"CASH IS THE SUPERIOR ASSET CLASS" Igy Quote (March 2015)
You are correct. They don't!
You add no value when you twist, but we knew that is what you do. Your M.O.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
OO wrote:
Do comments like this add any value to the discussion? I think you guys have made your point, over and over. Is it possible to reduce the noise and try to exchange useful ideas and information?
OO,
You are too rational for most posters on this thread. The typical DGTD poster is “yippie the market is up, look how smart I am,” rarely offering any justification for their view. If one posts anything negative about the market expect instant reprisals and twisting. It is easy to understand their angst, you are challenging their religion.
Igy
OO,
Read the thread - or at least the last few pages - and decide for yourself. Igy is quite stubborn and narrow minded. He does not suffer anyone who offers a contrary opinion to his (notice the insults above addressed to someone who disagreed with Igy). I think you’ll find most posters here are quite rational and knowledgeable.
Industry wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
OO,
You are too rational for most posters on this thread. The typical DGTD poster is “yippie the market is up, look how smart I am,” rarely offering any justification for their view. If one posts anything negative about the market expect instant reprisals and twisting. It is easy to understand their angst, you are challenging their religion.
Igy
OO,
Read the thread - or at least the last few pages - and decide for yourself. Igy is quite stubborn and narrow minded. He does not suffer anyone who offers a contrary opinion to his (notice the insults above addressed to someone who disagreed with Igy). I think you’ll find most posters here are quite rational and knowledgeable.
Yes, the Industry of disinformation. Ah, he figured it out already, so your bad breath is wasted.
mellon wrote:
Bill's Law wrote:
You seem to be forgetting Bill's Law:
"As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of it being reduced to endless prattle between at least one lunatic and one or more individuals who simply enjoy poking the lunatic approaches 1"
This "discussion" has long since surpassed the requisite length for Bill's law to kick in with a vengeance.
OK - Since you've thrown up a white flag under a couple of your many handles, I for one will back off.
That was a bloody weird post. WTF could you possibly be thinking?
Here's a quick tip for you, Bud: I check in on this thread about once every six months to see if anything's changed. It hasn't.
In the meantime, you might want to get a clue.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Industry wrote:
OO,
Read the thread - or at least the last few pages - and decide for yourself. Igy is quite stubborn and narrow minded. He does not suffer anyone who offers a contrary opinion to his (notice the insults above addressed to someone who disagreed with Igy). I think you’ll find most posters here are quite rational and knowledgeable.
Yes, the Industry of disinformation. Ah, he figured it out already, so your bad breath is wasted.
My point is proven.
Industry wrote:OO,
Read the thread - or at least the last few pages - and decide for yourself. Igy is quite stubborn and narrow minded. He does not suffer anyone who offers a contrary opinion to his (notice the insults above addressed to someone who disagreed with Igy). I think you’ll find most posters here are quite rational and knowledgeable.
I've been following the thread from the beginning, at first with interest, and gradually with increasing levels of frustration. The thread has the potential to be very, very good, and it offers up many bits of useful information from all sides of the topic. Unfortunately, the signal to noise ratio is very low, with no signs of improving. I credit Igy with a big part of that; he seems to have too thin a skin and responds to every critic, often petulantly. But to be fair to him, his critics are continually overinterpreting and distorting his words. A prime example is the August 2015 post he wrote, quoted above. There's nothing factually wrong in what he wrote, AND he didn't advise anything to do anything. You'd have to be reading between the lines, through your own tainted glasses, to infer he'd told everyone to sell all their stocks and hide the money under the mattress. What he actually wrote was that cash is the superior asset class when risk returns to the market, which to me implies the need to rebalance your portfolio to overweight cash and underweight securities. That seems like sound advice for a lot of investors at that point in time. The fact the markets have continued to go up doesn't actually mean that was bad advice, since surely the chickens will eventually come home to roost, and when this market reverses itself, a lot of until-then-very-happy investors will be completely surprised.
All that to say, I've chosen for myself to go against form, and as noted earlier, outside my house, I'm all in. About half my net worth is in stocks. The decision to do that was based on my personal careful consideration of my objectives and risk tolerance.