Ghost of Igloi wrote:Ah, nice, but I never said sit out of the market.
Igy
Sorry, didn't mean to put words into your mouth. I'm not one of your tormentors.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:Ah, nice, but I never said sit out of the market.
Igy
Sorry, didn't mean to put words into your mouth. I'm not one of your tormentors.
Jose Canusee wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Yes I apologize for not recognizing the credulity of investors like you. I should have realized it was all just money pumping into IRAs, 401k and other retirement plans. Blindly I might add.
Given your position, it’s quite ironic that you accuse others of being credulous.
Chances are quite good that Igy doesn’t even understand the meaning of the word. He’s not the brightest bulb.
Now is a good time to invest in bitcoin. It has been going up and up, and is only going to continue. People said it was going to collapse a couple years back, but look how wrong they were. Get in now before you miss out!
blind mellon wrote:
Now is a good time to invest in bitcoin. It has been going up and up, and is only going to continue. People said it was going to collapse a couple years back, but look how wrong they were. Get in now before you miss out!
You’re an idiot, Igy.
mellon wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
That’s your “long narrative” written so long ago. Oh such thoughtful insight investors “pumping” money into retirement plans. How profound.
Now that is an embarrassment.
Obviously, your comments 2 years & 9 months ago on why the market is about to crash have been far more accurate.
Go back and read my comment from 3/2/2015 (page 231 I believe). I does not and never has stated what you claim. You on the other hand have no real view other than the direction of the market confirming your less than fact based hunch.
Igy
Idiot alert wrote:
blind mellon wrote:
Now is a good time to invest in bitcoin. It has been going up and up, and is only going to continue. People said it was going to collapse a couple years back, but look how wrong they were. Get in now before you miss out!
You’re an idiot, Igy.
Why you blaming that post on me? Look elsewhere you idiot!
Restarting wrote:
Jose Canusee wrote:
Given your position, it’s quite ironic that you accuse others of being credulous.
Chances are quite good that Igy doesn’t even understand the meaning of the word. He’s not the brightest bulb.
So says the tulip bulb hoarder.
original idiot wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Yes I apologize for not recognizing the credulity of investors like you. I should have realized it was all just money pumping into IRAs, 401k and other retirement plans. Blindly I might add.
Don't get me wrong, Igy, I'm not trying to be critical, per se. I'm confident you will be right eventually, and I don't think it's a case of a blind squirrel finding a nut, nor a stopped clock being right twice a day. I can see you have weighed in with an opinion based on sound principals. And while I agree with you in general that expecting this time to be "different" is certainly (largely) wrong and maybe foolish, so far the market is bearing out a truth that this time it IS different, at least for now. In that the bull run has maintained a good head of steam in the face of contrary indicators. Eventually it will run out of steam and turn down (probably sharply and significantly), at which point we may be able to recognize the final signals. But for now, the market is behaving counterintuitively (and may well continue to do so for months or years, who knows?)
Sitting out of the market now, with the benefit of hindsight, would have been a horribly bad idea. Whether it would have been the same kind of bad idea without the benefit of hindsight depends, I think, to a large degree on one's risk tolerance and investment horizon.
Original idiot,
First, “this time is different” refers to bubble investors deviating from standard valuation metrics to justify their purchase. Each bubble is different, but that is not the reference here. So unless you have some data that can be quantified, and is supported by actual market performance, then there is no justification for the excesses of this era.
I was not offended by your post, but thanks for the comment. There are more than a few “tormentors,” which seem to be driven by there own demons.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
I does not and never has stated what you claim.
Igy
No comment.
What he said on 3/2/2015
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
The risk in the stock market is under appreciated. QE has distorted equity prices and the next big move is down rather than up. The Schiller PE is 27 and valuations are stretched when measured against other valuation models. Remember, the stock market has had two 50% down markets in the past fifteen years. The fifteen year average compounded return on the S&P is only 4.3%, which is inferior to treasuries. Treasuries are overvalued as well. Cash is the superior asset class when risk returns to the market.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
What he said on 3/2/2015
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
The risk in the stock market is under appreciated. QE has distorted equity prices and the next big move is down rather than up. The Schiller PE is 27 and valuations are stretched when measured against other valuation models. Remember, the stock market has had two 50% down markets in the past fifteen years. The fifteen year average compounded return on the S&P is only 4.3%, which is inferior to treasuries. Treasuries are overvalued as well. Cash is the superior asset class when risk returns to the market.
You couldn’t have been more wrong with that last sentence.
Why do you say that?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Why do you say that?
Because the market went up.
I said when risk returns to market. The Vix has gone down during that period.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
I said when risk returns to market. The Vix has gone down during that period.
You said the risk in the market is under appreciated.
Investors willingness to pay more for a unit of earnings is an expression of under appreciated risk.
Keep twisting if you like, but there is nothing there but truth.
I’m not twisting anything. I’m just repeating YOUR words about the market being risky.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:(1) Each bubble is different, but that is not the reference here.
(2) So unless you have some data that can be quantified, and is supported by actual market performance, then there is no justification for the excesses of this era.
Igy
Not sure I follow your point(s) here.
(1) This bubble IS (surely) different in that it's taken (much) longer to pop than reasonably expected. Why is that? I think that's the million dollar question...
(2) I can't quite get your meaning here. The basic justification could be, simply, that the ends justify the means. Or in other words, people's effusive enthusiasm for rising markets has been justified after the fact (in hindsight) by rising markets. Obviously it wouldn't have been justified on the basis of a priori knowledge of the way markets SHOULD behave. So the second million dollar question is, to me, is it objectively "better" to make a defensible, justifiable bet and be proven wrong (either bet to gain yet lose, or in this case, bet to lose and win), or to make a riskier, unsupportable blue sky guess in the face of powerful contrary evidence? I think the answer to that philosophical question depends entirely on your personal point of view.
Good points and agreed. Expanding on your thought from my vantage point, valuations do matter and at the current market level history has not been generous to equity investors. Therefore, a bet on stocks at this point has much higher chance of failure than March of 2009. In regards to why this bubble has expanded for so long, it is clearly central bank policy.