Oh, Snap!
Oh, Snap!
Igy's numbers are correct.
Thank you, try this source:
Financial Advisor wrote:
Igy's numbers are correct.
My bad. I was erroneously using the numbers for the week of 3/2/15. Apologies to Igy.
Thanks Matt.
Matt Mann wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
1. It will only take a decline of -17.8% to get back to the level I first posted on 3/2/2015. Of course you continue to say three years, or that I advocated zero stock holding, both of which are mischaraterizations you purposely promote. And by the -17.8% is not even bear market territory.
Igy
Dow close 3/2/2015: 17,856.78
Dow close 11/1/2017: 23,435.01
Percentage drop required to return to 3/2/2015 level: 23.8% (bear market territory)
I don’t understand the point of this whole discussion. The Dow is up over 30% since Igy's arrival here. How is that a bad thing?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Since you did not answer all the questions, I will.
2. I interpret your answer to be we are not likely to see a decline of that magnitude in the near future. You may be correct but market history says that occurrence would be highly likely.
Igy
Answer: Highly unlikely next 3 months.
You are hanging on history. I have said it before (over 3 years ago) and I will say it again. "I believe it is different this time".
I may be wrong. I'll accept that.
I have made no personal attacks on you. My only criticism has been your continued narrative that you have been spot on with you market assessment for the past 3 years ( or 2 years and 8 mos.). I say you've been wrong.
mellon wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Since you did not answer all the questions, I will.
2. I interpret your answer to be we are not likely to see a decline of that magnitude in the near future. You may be correct but market history says that occurrence would be highly likely.
Igy
Answer: Highly unlikely next 3 months.
You are hanging on history. I have said it before (over 3 years ago) and I will say it again. "I believe it is different this time".
I may be wrong. I'll accept that.
I have made no personal attacks on you. My only criticism has been your continued narrative that you have been spot on with you market assessment for the past 3 years ( or 2 years and 8 mos.). I say you've been wrong.
Mellon,
OK, fair enough.
I believe the two drops of -12% August-September 2015 and -15% January-February 2016 are more representative of market and economic fundamentals than this +23% move since the election (S&P 500). Of course those with a fundamental view of investing have been surprised that central bankers have provided a put to the market.
I would be interested to know why you “believe it is different this time.”
Igy
wondering wrote:
Matt Mann wrote:
Dow close 3/2/2015: 17,856.78
Dow close 11/1/2017: 23,435.01
Percentage drop required to return to 3/2/2015 level: 23.8% (bear market territory)
I don’t understand the point of this whole discussion. The Dow is up over 30% since Igy's arrival here. How is that a bad thing?
Bump.
wondering wrote:
wondering wrote:
I don’t understand the point of this whole discussion. The Dow is up over 30% since Igy's arrival here. How is that a bad thing?
Bump.
Since you are wondering, the Dow is up +22% since I first posted here. That is good for people that have reduced their stock allocation in accordance with their risk tolerance and time horizon. For those investors that have increased their exposure to stock with no regard to risk tolerance and time horizon, which there are many, that will prove to be an error.
That’s all folks.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
wondering wrote:
Bump.
Since you are wondering, the Dow is up +22% since I first posted here. That is good for people that have reduced their stock allocation in accordance with their risk tolerance and time horizon. For those investors that have increased their exposure to stock with no regard to risk tolerance and time horizon, which there are many, that will prove to be an error.
That’s all folks.
Igy
Actually it’s in excess of a 31% increase using the numbers above. It would be mor if I used today's close.
Isn’t this good for anyone who has held their stock investments over that time? At least for the moment?
My bad +28.7% up, 22.2% to return to same level.
I used today’s 23516 close, and the close of 18,269 on 3/2/2015. Sure it is good for the moment, but I believe we will be 60% lower than the current level. If I am correct, the current rise will matter very little to the coming destruction of capital.
Igy
Wondering,
I know this thread is references the Dow, however the S&P 500 is considered a better proxy for market performance. Fund manager performance for domestic large cap stocks are measured against the S&P 500, not the Dow.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
I used today’s 23516 close, and the close of 18,269 on 3/2/2015. Sure it is good for the moment, but I believe we will be 60% lower than the current level. If I am correct, the current rise will matter very little to the coming destruction of capital.
Igy
The close on 3/2/15 was actually 18288.63, but that doesn’t change the percentage increase much. Still the point is that isn’t it better to be invested and enjoy that return, than to not be? (That’s a rhetorical question because the answer is obvious.)
Wondering,
OK, I’ll go with your number. I was scrolled back and forth and didn’t write anything down. I generally do not pay much attention to the Dow for the reason I previously mentioned.
In regards to whether one is better off having “enjoyed that return” it is more than a rhetorical question. The word “enjoy” in one definition is ephemeral, yet the payment for that feeling is risk. So I suppose the investor that holds a stock position in a severe market decline has the opposite feeling concerning his choice.
So In my view this story still has an unwritten ending.
Igy
It’s not my number. It’s the Dow's.
Enjoy is an appropriate word, especially in the context of risk. Equity investments are inherently risky. Being on the winning side is indeed enjoyable. And yes, not so enjoyable in a decline.
Right now it is enjoyable.
OK, the Dow’s number.
Enjoy.