Down goes the Dow

Actually the odds are that hand will win most of the time.

The Gambler wrote:

Actually the odds are that hand will win most of the time.

Speaking of odds, your portfolio is overdue for a bear market.

Truth.

All eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains for 2017 through September 18.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2017/09/18/world-markets-update?

Mortimer wrote:

Speaking of odds, your portfolio is overdue for a bear market.

Another good reason for getting out of the market today instead of 3 years ago when you proclaimed the same thing.

I know, stupid investor's will ride it down to the bottom.

Wrong! Stupid investor's are ones who have been following your advise for 3 years.

mellon wrote:

Mortimer wrote:

Speaking of odds, your portfolio is overdue for a bear market.

Another good reason for getting out of the market today instead of 3 years ago when you proclaimed the same thing.

I know, stupid investor's will ride it down to the bottom.

Wrong! Stupid investor's are ones who have been following your advise for 3 years.

"advice"

Go Lions!

mellon wrote:

Mortimer wrote:

Speaking of odds, your portfolio is overdue for a bear market.

Another good reason for getting out of the market today instead of 3 years ago when you proclaimed the same thing.

I know, stupid investor's will ride it down to the bottom.

Wrong! Stupid investor's are ones who have been following your advise for 3 years.

"It’s too easy to forget that by the low of the 2007-2009 collapse, the total return of the S&P 500 had lagged risk-free Treasury bills for nearly 14 years, all the way back to June 1995, and had outpaced Treasury bills by less than 1.2% annually over the nearly 22-year period since the 1987 high, even though early-2009 valuations reached only modestly undervalued levels based on the most historically reliable measures we identify. Having anticipated both the 2000-2002 and 2007-2009 collapses, with a constructive shift in-between, I remain convinced that investors are walking eyes-wide-shut into a similar outcome today. By the completion of the current market cycle, I expect that the S&P 500 will have lagged Treasury bills for the entire period since roughly October 1997."

"Even though the S&P 500 had done quite well over prior complete market cycles, the half-cycle loss it experienced in the 2007-2009 decline was enough to eat into the returns of prior market cycles. In the rear-view mirror, the difficult half-cycle loss made the S&P 500 appear to have been a mediocre investment for over two decades. In the face of such disappointment, it was tempting for buy-and-hold investors to abandon their discipline. Were the ones that held on fools? To the contrary, that low point was the moment that disciplined buy-and-hold investors most needed to stay the course. Whether a half-cycle takes the form of a bull market or a bear market, it’s often when investors become convinced that a half-cycle is permanent that the other half bursts out of the shadows. Moments like the present, when valuations are obscene, and past returns appear nearly too good to be true (because they most likely are), are actually the points where investors should think twice about their market exposure."

--John Hussman, Weekly commentary 9/18/2017

Grammer Checker wrote:

"advice"

I will admit your grammar knowledge far outweighs your financial knowledge.

Oh! wait a minute, maybe it don't. "GRAMMAR CHECKER"

I am heartened to read John Hussman's support of buy-and-hold investing.

"Moments like the present, when valuations are obscene, and past returns appear nearly too good to be true (because they most likely are), are actually the points where investors should think twice about their market exposure."

Stanley Morgan wrote:

I am heartened to read John Hussman's support of buy-and-hold investing.

Stanley Morgan wrote:

I am heartened to read John Hussman's support of buy-and-hold investing.

Despite his poor record as an investment manager and prognosticator, Hussman is a highly educated man. He knows that over the long haul, equities are the best investment by far.

Financial Advisor wrote:

Hussman is a highly educated man. He knows that over the long haul, equities are the best investment by far.

"By the completion of the current market cycle, I expect that the S&P 500 will have lagged Treasury bills for the entire period since roughly October 1997."

--John Hussman, Weekly Commentary 9/18/2017

You left out the part about Hussman's miserable record as a prognosticator.

Financial Advisor wrote:

You left out the part about Hussman's miserable record as a prognosticator.

"Having anticipated both the 2000-2002 and 2007-2009 collapses, with a constructive shift in-between, I remain convinced that investors are walking eyes-wide-shut into a similar outcome today."

--John Hussman, Weekly Commentary, 9/18/2017

Even a blind squirrel occasionally finds an acorn.

Financial Advisor wrote:

Even a blind squirrel occasionally finds an acorn.

Enlightening. I suppose you will soon find your lump of coal Mr. Financial Advisor. Very average advice.

I offered you no advice.

Big Dog Investments wrote:

I propose another DGTD prediction contest: PREDICT THE CORRECTION.

Here are the rules:

1) Give the exact date that the Dow will reach 10% below its high.

2) Your prediction must be made before the Dow has fallen 3% from its high.

Closest to the actual date wins with the winner receiving one genuine "attaboy" as prize.

Will it happen before the end of 2016? (Nope) After the inauguration? (Yup) Groundhog Day? (Maser hopes so!)

Let's hear what you think.

With the Dow seemingly establishing new highs on a daily basis, it's time for another contest update. Given the way things are going, however, I may have to do this again soon. :-)

The clock continues to run on Maserati who needs a 10% correction by February 2, 2018 to avoid joining the losers' club.

The prediction pool:

Igy: January 9, 2017 - ELIMINATED

Big: January 13, 2017 - ELIMINATED

Econ: Feb 8, 2017 - ELIMINATED

agip: March 4, 2017 - ELIMINATED

Ghost of 29: May 15, 2017 - ELIMINATED

Maser: June 17, 2017

Mellon: December 31, 2018

It's obvious that most of us were not bullish enough.

Current data (as of 9/19/17, 2:42 PM ET):

Dow high...22,386.01

Prediction goal...20,147.41

Cut off number...21,714.43 (make your prediction before Dow reaches this)

I will say April 1, 2018.