How is it possible for people to predict that the #8, #10, #17 California teams of all time get projected finish between 11th to 15th at nxn?
All 3 teams have a 5 in the high 15:50's.
I think the team time ranking is a little skewed since it doesn't really take the fact that if your 5 is far enough back, it doesn't matter how good your 1-4 are. Oakdale had a better team time than Great Oak last year and still lost in the merge, because Great Oak had a better 5. Also, Oakdale had a better or equal 1, 2, 3, and 4. The 5 is the most important runner for every team.
Menlo's 5 is 15:58, Jesuit's is 15:59, Glendora's is 15:56. Last year, San Clemente's 5 was 15:30, Dana Hills' 5 was 15:33, and even Great Oak's 5 was 15:51. Those teams managed 8th, 10th, and 17th. While those teams have a very strong 1-4 (Jesuit especially), the 5's will need to step up.
Luckily for Jesuit, they had a 15:44 guy run 16:03, so maybe he'll get back to where he was at Clovis (Although If he does I still wouldn't expect much more than what is projected). They also have a strong 6 either way. Glendora and Menlo are in even bigger trouble. Menlo's whole team got a PR at state and Glendora's 5 was within 5 seconds of his Clovis time. This goes to show while both teams had very good days at state and 11/14 runners on both teams got a PR when it mattered, it also means there's a good chance the best they've got won't be enough on the national stage.
All that being said, I think Jesuit could be in the 6-9 range and I think glendora and Menlo will be in the 11-14 range, not nearly as low as 17. They both have a 1-4 that's as good or better than Great Oak did, and the 5's are very comparable, so I don't see them dropping that low.
I can't believe that a video of the false start doesn't exist. That would help all of us decide if the kid is a blatant cheater, or the officials are incompetent. Either possibility seems credible to me, without further evidence.
To be clear: I’m not saying he didn’t false start. The officials issued a warning and the race was set to start again and at that time the opposing coach demanded the officials DQ. That is what seems egregious. The officials made their call and reversed it based on a coach insisting that they had to. Also in another race there were false starts that only received warnings. It’s inconsistent at best and targeted and intentional at worst.
That coach must be really jealous of the dynasty Great Oak had and what it has accomplished over the years 😀
How is it possible for people to predict that the #8, #10, #17 California teams of all time get projected finish between 11th to 15th at nxn?
The 5 is the most important runner for every team.
Case in point at NXN. Glendora 2024 and Great Oak 2023 had identical teams placements. Glendora's 1-4 scored 55 points less than Great Oak's 1-4, and yet they ended up in the same placement as their 5 scored 53 more points than Great Oak's 5. Jesuit's 5, 6, and 7 all had really slow days and it pulled their solid 1-4 back. If jesuit had a better performance from the 5, they easily could've been up in the 6-8 range. The projections were right on, or even a little high for California this year