Down goes the Dow

Grunting wrote:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/218024/investor-optimism-rises-again-hits-year-high.aspx?g_source=Economy&g_medium=lead&g_campaign=tiles

Correlation to saps maybe?

It's a correlation to the 8+ year bear market. It makes perfect sense.

I think we're about due for some pot shots at the passive investors and how stupid they are.

mellon wrote:

I think we're about due for some pot shots at the passive investors and how stupid they are.

Or from your side name calling as in racist, misogynist, Nazi, or fat shaming, which collectively is far worse than calling out investors making a fool's run into index funds.

Please tell me what the market is forward looking about? I suppose when the market dropped the S&P 500 dropped 59% in the 2007-2009 time period it was backward looking. So please give us some wisdom from your view.

The market is always forward looking. Prices go up when the future looks bright. Prices go down when the future looks dim.

OK, so today the market is near record high, and suppose a month later it is down 30%. Therefore, the market was wrong on it's forward view on 9/11/2017. Really what you are saying is a bunch of nonsense. The level of the market on any given day says relatively little about the future. On the other hand a host of valuation metrics, which you ignore do.

Of course the forward view can be wrong. So can the metrics that bears have embraced for the last several years. There are no guarantees other than the market will go up and down. No one can routinely accurately predict what will happen.

At the current level of stock valuation using Market Cap/GVA, Buffett Indicator or Tobin's Q predicts a better than 80% chance that the 10-12 year returns for the S&P 500 will be flat to negative. So if you wish to bet the other way best wishes. Central bank monetary policies are a witch's brew that will spoil investor returns sooner rather than later.

Nothing new there. Meanwhile the markets continue to soar. They didn't get the message.

In a February 27 interview with CNBC, Warren Buffet expressed his view that the stock market is "on the cheap side"

.....and he has a $100 Billion in cash.....

Investing 101 wrote:

Nothing new there. Meanwhile the markets continue to soar. They didn't get the message.

The message will be delivered in the graduate course, but first you must experience the 60% portfolio failure.

U Buy, Buf Sells wrote:

.....and he has a $100 Billion in cash.....

...which is less than half of Berkshire Hathaway's bottom line. And Buffett has been quite vocal about his desire to buy a big company with that coin. He's not a guy who likes cash.

Grunting wrote:

At the current level of stock valuation using Market Cap/GVA, Buffett Indicator or Tobin's Q predicts a better than 80% chance that the 10-12 year returns for the S&P 500 will be flat to negative. So if you wish to bet the other way best wishes. Central bank monetary policies are a witch's brew that will spoil investor returns sooner rather than later.

Tobin's Q is not a predictive indicator.

Reality Checker wrote:

U Buy, Buf Sells wrote:

.....and he has a $100 Billion in cash.....

...which is less than half of Berkshire Hathaway's bottom line. And Buffett has been quite vocal about his desire to buy a big company with that coin. He's not a guy who likes cash.

He's more than willing to sell you his unwanted stock. And of course he was so devoid of cash during the Financial Crisis he bought stakes in GS and BAC.

James K. wrote:

Grunting wrote:

At the current level of stock valuation using Market Cap/GVA, Buffett Indicator or Tobin's Q predicts a better than 80% chance that the 10-12 year returns for the S&P 500 will be flat to negative. So if you wish to bet the other way best wishes. Central bank monetary policies are a witch's brew that will spoil investor returns sooner rather than later.

Tobin's Q is not a predictive indicator.

A false statement.

Grunting wrote:

James K. wrote:

Tobin's Q is not a predictive indicator.

A false statement.

The only thing wrong with what James wrote is that he only mentioned one of those indicators. Neither one is forward looking.

More "forward looking" and accurate than the forward earning and non-GAAP EPS that you quote.

How can it be more accurate than facts? You make absolutely no sense.