2024 California HS XC CIF

Sounds like Footlocker West will be far better this year than what it was last year. This is assuming Kade Brownell, Cooper Boyle, Vince Recupero and Jack Sheesley from Northwest will be there. Then there is potentially Trey Caldwell, Broen Holman, Tyler Diallak, etc. Could be a great battle for those last few national spots at footlocker west.

From what I remember from last year, this is intentional on NXNs part, and the reason why they aren't giving out any more individual at-larges. Sounds like Rich still has a soft spot for Footlocker champs.

Dyestat article doesn't mention any big names from Northwest outside of Brownell and Caldwell. Dang was really hoping West region could try to go for a win at footlocker this year. Well it will probably be enough to beat Northeast but definitely not South or Midwest.

https://www.dyestat.com/gprofile.php?mgroup_id=44531&do=news&news_id=670494

Fastest California teams ever
Newbury Park 2021 - 73:25 (1st)
Newbury Park 2022 - 74:37 (nxn 1st)
Newbury Park 2019 - 75:28 (nxn 1st)
Great Oak 2015 - 76:10 (nxn 1st)
Arcadia 2010 - 76:12 (nxn 1st)
Dana Hills 2023 - 76:20 (nxn 10th)
Great Oak 2019 - 76:26 (nxn 2nd)
Jesuit 2024 - 76:30 (projected to be 11th?)
San Clemente 2023 - 76:30 (nxn 8th)
Menlo 2024 - 76:37 (projected to be 13th?)
Crater 2024 - 76:39 (-)
Great Oak 2018 - 76:49 (nxn 2nd)
Arcadia 2012 - 77:00 (nxn 1st)
Dana Hills 2015 - 77:01 (nxn 3rd)
Beckman 2024 - 77:04 (-)
West Ranch 2018 - 77:05 (nxn 8th)
Glendora - 77:12 (projected to be 15th?)
Dana Hills 2019 - 77:14 (nxn 8th)
Mead WA 1993 - 77:22 (-)
Oakdale 2023 - 77:26 (-)
Arcadia 2013 - 77:28 (nxn 9th)
Great Oak 2017 - 77:33 (nxn 6th)

2024 state meet
Jesuit - 76:30
Menlo - 76:37
Glendora - 77:12
Oaks Christian - 77:43
Matilda Torres - 77:37

Projections?
Data Nerd: Jesuit - 11th, Menlo - 13th, Glendora - 15th
Comments7: Jesuit - 9th, Menlo - 11th, Glendora - 15th
Dyestat New Outlet - Jesuit - 11th, Menlo - NA - Glendora - 30th
Tullyrunners - Jesuit - 8th, Menlo - 11th, Glendora - 14th

How is it possible for people to predict that the #8, #10, #17 California teams of all time get projected finish between 11th to 15th at nxn?

Easy, teams from other states are also among their best historical teams.

With public school choice, transfers, and private recruiting, more talent is concentrated in less teams. Also everyone on average is getting better.

Crater is from Oregon, but they did race Clovis

When you look at the most recent results it makes sense. No point in looking at NXN results from a decade ago. I think California was just ahead of the curve and the results are skewed by Newbury Park. Other state, particularly Utah, have caught up. From last year we know that a team that averages 15:20 can expect to get about 10th. (SC and DH 2023)

Does anyone know what happened to Chase Cressman? He was jesuit #5 at SJ Finals.

He raced JV most of the year and that seems like it was the only race that he was in the top 5 for.

Actually, their regular #5 is Kadel (Sr). He was running really well at the beginning of the season. He had a few off races at the end, and hopefully he will do well at NXN.

Next year they will need to find a new 5th man. If he can close the gap, they could be better than the 2022 Newbury Park team and possibly challenge Niwot CO (who could also be better than NP 2022) for an NXN title.

Jesuit can possibly beat the 2022 team average next year if their fifth man closes the gap

I assume he’s injured. Cressman has always been inconsistent. He was out for most of his junior track season and was out for his sophomore track season.

Does anyone know what happened to Sydney Rubio? Made NXN last year as a freshman for Huntington Beach, placing 4th in the merge with a 17:26.

She’s been racing frosh/soph this season for some reason (I assume it’s injury)

NXN
(22 best teams race)
2023 nxn point total
83
100
138
187
197
202
215
263
266
267
269
290
320
326
365
378
393
402
431
466
468
503

2024 CIF State
(CIF combined merge of the top 122 teams in California)
253 (8th)
296 (13th)
340 (15th)

If those california teams score the same point total as they did in the 122 team California merge, they would meet the projections (expectations). Quite interesting.

This may be me glazing, but knowing they got someone like Walt Lange, it’s possible but not an easy feat. Their 5th man next year is Lucas Alberts, who seems to thrive more on track than on xc (considering this dude ran 1:54 as a freshman and 4:34 as an 8th grader). The rest should be looking to at least go under 15:30-15:40 for such a feat. Imo Walt Lange is just as good or even better than a coach than Sean Bronsan.

I think Walt Lange is one of, if not the best coach in California. I really stand by that. I think his titles, both in XC and track, speak for themselves. I remember before Newbury Park, athletes he coached held the record for the most sub-9s at a single HS.

That's your job, given your username. At least for that section...

I'm not one for glazing Jesuit because there are already enough guys in here doing that but Walt Lange is ten times the coach that Sean Bronsan is/was. Walt has been doing big things since the beginning of time and has managed to stay at the same HS for like 40 years doing it.